{
  "$schema": "https://kxco.ai/ontology-live/data.json",
  "name": "KXCO Ontology Live, AI sector",
  "description": "A typed-claim graph of the AI sector. Every relationship carries a source, a discovery method, a confidence level and two time axes: when the claim held in the world (valid_from/valid_to) and when it was asserted (recorded_at). Superseded claims are retained rather than overwritten, so the graph can be queried as at a past date.",
  "url": "https://kxco.ai/ontology-live/",
  "guide": "https://kxco.ai/developers/blog/ontology-live-guide",
  "contact": "https://kxco.ai/contact",
  "publisher": "KXCO",
  "authors": [
    "Shayne Heffernan",
    "John Heffernan"
  ],
  "as_of": "2026-08-06",
  "licence": "Published for inspection. Sourced claims carry a url. Claims marked disc=\"derived\" are KXCO analytical readings, not published facts, and carry no url by construction.",
  "disclaimer": "Not investment advice. Valuation figures are third-party sell-side consensus, collected and dated, not KXCO forecasts.",
  "schema": {
    "node": [
      "id",
      "label",
      "tier",
      "type",
      "choke",
      "note"
    ],
    "edge": [
      "s",
      "t",
      "g",
      "pred",
      "mag",
      "magU",
      "asof",
      "disc",
      "conf",
      "url",
      "note",
      "valid_from",
      "valid_to",
      "supersedes",
      "recorded_at"
    ],
    "statement": [
      "id",
      "author",
      "quote",
      "venue",
      "said_on",
      "targets",
      "valid_from",
      "valid_to",
      "supersedes",
      "disc",
      "conf",
      "url"
    ],
    "edge_groups": {
      "ec": "physical / compute supply",
      "cap": "capital",
      "ctrl": "control / board",
      "loop": "circular flow",
      "gov": "government / sovereign",
      "legal": "legal / adversarial",
      "rival": "rivalry",
      "talent": "talent & lineage",
      "data": "data & tech flow"
    },
    "disc": [
      "filed",
      "primary",
      "reported",
      "private",
      "derived"
    ],
    "conf": [
      "high",
      "medium",
      "estimate"
    ],
    "stance": [
      "supportive",
      "critical",
      "mixed",
      "neutral"
    ]
  },
  "counts": {
    "nodes": 370,
    "edges_total": 803,
    "edges_current": 789,
    "edges_superseded": 14,
    "findings": 37,
    "statements_total": 9,
    "statements_superseded": 3,
    "node_types": 31,
    "chokepoints": 9,
    "circular_loops": 15,
    "by_type": {
      "bank": 8,
      "benchmark": 4,
      "capability": 2,
      "chipmaker": 20,
      "cluster": 1,
      "company": 47,
      "compute": 11,
      "concept": 7,
      "equipment": 8,
      "facility": 11,
      "foundry": 6,
      "framework": 4,
      "hardware": 12,
      "health": 10,
      "infra": 10,
      "investor": 52,
      "lab": 35,
      "material": 6,
      "memory": 5,
      "model": 2,
      "networking": 5,
      "paradigm": 1,
      "person": 46,
      "platform": 2,
      "policy": 15,
      "quantum": 8,
      "regulator": 9,
      "segment": 4,
      "standards": 4,
      "theatre": 3,
      "theme": 12
    },
    "by_edge_group": {
      "cap": 198,
      "ctrl": 94,
      "data": 18,
      "ec": 219,
      "gov": 138,
      "legal": 30,
      "loop": 15,
      "rival": 38,
      "talent": 53
    },
    "sourced_edges": 749,
    "derived_edges": 44,
    "unsourced_edges": 10,
    "pole": {
      "buckets": {
        "Person": 46,
        "Object": 36,
        "Location": 14,
        "Ontology": 40,
        "Organisation": 234
      },
      "events": {
        "statements": 9,
        "closed_claims": 14
      },
      "unmapped": 0,
      "note": "POLE has no Organisation bucket; organisations are the majority of this graph and are named separately rather than folded into Object. Events are not a node type: they are statements plus any claim with a closed validity interval. Projection is derived at export time and never stored."
    }
  },
  "nodes": [
    {
      "id": "asml",
      "label": "ASML",
      "tier": 0,
      "type": "equipment",
      "seed": false,
      "choke": true,
      "note": "Sole maker of the EUV lithography every leading-edge AI chip is printed on, and of High-NA EUV. Q2 2026 net sales EUR9.3bn at 54.0% gross margin; FY2026 guidance raised to EUR43-45bn from EUR36-40bn. Adding 30% to both Low-NA EUV and DUV immersion capacity for 2027, with a further 30% under evaluation for 2028. China is about 20% of 2026 revenue, DUV only.",
      "community": 7
    },
    {
      "id": "zeiss",
      "label": "Zeiss",
      "tier": 0,
      "type": "equipment",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Sole supplier of EUV optics to ASML.",
      "community": 7
    },
    {
      "id": "trumpf",
      "label": "Trumpf",
      "tier": 0,
      "type": "equipment",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Sole supplier of EUV laser sources to ASML.",
      "community": 7
    },
    {
      "id": "tsmc",
      "label": "TSMC",
      "tier": 1,
      "type": "foundry",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Fabricates the cohort's leading-edge silicon. Fabless chipmakers depend on it entirely.",
      "community": 7
    },
    {
      "id": "nvidia",
      "label": "Nvidia",
      "tier": 2,
      "type": "chipmaker",
      "seed": true,
      "note": "Designs the GPUs; fabless. Also an equity investor in several of its own customers.",
      "community": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "broadcom",
      "label": "Broadcom",
      "tier": 2,
      "type": "chipmaker",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Custom AI accelerators for OpenAI. Discovered.",
      "community": 9
    },
    {
      "id": "amd",
      "label": "AMD",
      "tier": 2,
      "type": "chipmaker",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "First non-Nvidia frontier GPU supplier: up to 2GW MI450 + up to $5bn equity into Anthropic (Jul 2026), plus ~6GW/~$90bn hardware to OpenAI.",
      "community": 5
    },
    {
      "id": "spacex",
      "label": "SpaceX",
      "tier": 3,
      "type": "compute",
      "seed": true,
      "note": "Owns the Colossus data centres post-xAI merger; rents them to rival labs. Listed NASDAQ:SPCX Jun 2026.",
      "community": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "colossus1",
      "label": "Colossus 1",
      "tier": 3,
      "type": "facility",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Memphis · ~220k Nvidia GPUs · 300MW · leased in full to Anthropic.",
      "community": 5
    },
    {
      "id": "colossus2",
      "label": "Colossus 2",
      "tier": 3,
      "type": "facility",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Memphis · Nvidia GB300 · xAI training + Reflection capacity.",
      "community": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "coreweave",
      "label": "CoreWeave",
      "tier": 3,
      "type": "compute",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "GPU cloud; Nvidia-backed and Nvidia-supplied. Discovered.",
      "community": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "oracle",
      "label": "Oracle",
      "tier": 3,
      "type": "compute",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "$300bn / 5yr compute to OpenAI; lead operator of Stargate. Discovered. Contracted backlog reached $553bn at Q3 FY2026, up from $455bn at Q1, driven by AI contracts that depend on Nvidia hardware.",
      "community": 8
    },
    {
      "id": "crusoe",
      "label": "Crusoe",
      "tier": 3,
      "type": "facility",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Builder of the Abilene Stargate flagship site. Discovered.",
      "community": 2
    },
    {
      "id": "stargate",
      "label": "Stargate",
      "tier": 2,
      "type": "facility",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Announced at the White House in January 2025 as a ~$500bn, ~10GW build-out over four years: OpenAI, SoftBank and Oracle, with MGX funding an initial $100bn tranche. The signature compute-infrastructure signal of the administration. Execution has lagged the framing: more than a year on, reporting describes unresolved disputes between the partners over structure and responsibility, and OpenAI has leaned on cloud contracts with AWS, Google Cloud, AMD and Cerebras while further sites were announced.",
      "community": 8
    },
    {
      "id": "anthropic",
      "label": "Anthropic",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "lab",
      "seed": true,
      "note": "Filed confidential S-1 Jun 2026. Rents Colossus 1 from SpaceX; funded by Amazon, Google, Nvidia, Microsoft.",
      "community": 5
    },
    {
      "id": "openai",
      "label": "OpenAI",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "lab",
      "seed": true,
      "note": "Filed confidential S-1 Jun 2026. Compute across Azure, Oracle/Stargate, CoreWeave, AWS, AMD, Broadcom.",
      "community": 3
    },
    {
      "id": "alphabet",
      "label": "Alphabet / Google",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "company",
      "seed": true,
      "note": "Funds Anthropic, competes with it, and rents SpaceX compute. Listed NASDAQ:GOOGL.",
      "community": 6
    },
    {
      "id": "meta",
      "label": "Meta",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "company",
      "seed": true,
      "note": "Owns its data-centre fleet. Listed NASDAQ:META.",
      "community": 3
    },
    {
      "id": "xai",
      "label": "xAI",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "lab",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Merged into SpaceX Feb 2026; brought the Colossus facilities with it.",
      "community": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "reflection",
      "label": "Reflection AI",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "lab",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Colossus 2 compute customer (~$150m/mo).",
      "community": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "cursor",
      "label": "Cursor",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "lab",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Colossus compute customer; reported SpaceX call option.",
      "community": 3
    },
    {
      "id": "tesla",
      "label": "Tesla",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "company",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Shares its CEO with SpaceX/xAI — a personal control interlock. Discovered.",
      "community": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "microsoft",
      "label": "Microsoft",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "investor",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "~27% of OpenAI; up to $5bn in Anthropic; the Azure counterparty.",
      "community": 2
    },
    {
      "id": "amazon",
      "label": "Amazon",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "investor",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "~$8bn in Anthropic (primary cloud) AND $38bn/7yr compute to OpenAI.",
      "community": 5
    },
    {
      "id": "softbank",
      "label": "SoftBank",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "investor",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Lead of OpenAI's ~$300bn round; Stargate partner.",
      "community": 8
    },
    {
      "id": "mgx",
      "label": "MGX",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "investor",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Abu Dhabi sovereign vehicle; Stargate capital partner. Discovered.",
      "community": 8
    },
    {
      "id": "qia",
      "label": "QIA",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "investor",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Qatar sovereign fund; pre-merger xAI investor, now indirect via SpaceX.",
      "community": 3
    },
    {
      "id": "foundersfund",
      "label": "Founders Fund",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "investor",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Long-standing SpaceX investor; stake private.",
      "community": 2
    },
    {
      "id": "a16z",
      "label": "a16z",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "investor",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "SpaceX investor; stake private.",
      "community": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "valor",
      "label": "Valor Equity",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "investor",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Gracias's firm; SpaceX holder and reported xAI equipment lessor.",
      "community": 25
    },
    {
      "id": "vanguard",
      "label": "Vanguard",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "investor",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Top-tier passive holder across the listed names (13F).",
      "community": 3
    },
    {
      "id": "blackrock",
      "label": "BlackRock",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "investor",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Top-tier passive holder across the listed names (13F).",
      "community": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "goldman",
      "label": "Goldman Sachs",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "bank",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Lead-left on the SPCX IPO; arranged the ~$20bn bridge loan.",
      "community": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "morganstanley",
      "label": "Morgan Stanley",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "bank",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "SPCX IPO joint bookrunner.",
      "community": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "bofa",
      "label": "BofA",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "bank",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "SPCX IPO joint bookrunner.",
      "community": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "citi",
      "label": "Citi",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "bank",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "SPCX IPO joint bookrunner.",
      "community": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "jpmorgan",
      "label": "JPMorgan",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "bank",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "SPCX IPO joint bookrunner.",
      "community": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "musk",
      "label": "Elon Musk",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "person",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "~82% voting control of SpaceX; CEO of Tesla; controls xAI via SpaceX.",
      "community": 3
    },
    {
      "id": "gracias",
      "label": "A. Gracias",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "person",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Valor founder; long-standing SpaceX director (~7.3% Class A).",
      "community": 3
    },
    {
      "id": "zuckerberg",
      "label": "M. Zuckerberg",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "person",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Voting control of Meta via super-voting shares.",
      "community": 3
    },
    {
      "id": "synopsys",
      "label": "Synopsys",
      "tier": 0,
      "type": "equipment",
      "seed": false,
      "choke": true,
      "note": "Co-dominates EDA (electronic design automation) with Cadence — ~60% market share combined. Every AI accelerator chip designed on their tools. New US curbs forced them to halt China work.",
      "community": 5
    },
    {
      "id": "cadence",
      "label": "Cadence",
      "tier": 0,
      "type": "equipment",
      "seed": false,
      "choke": true,
      "note": "Co-dominates EDA with Synopsys. Critical chokepoint — no AI chip gets taped out without Synopsys or Cadence software.",
      "community": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "applied_materials",
      "label": "Applied Materials",
      "tier": 0,
      "type": "equipment",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Dominates semiconductor deposition and etching equipment. Critical for TSMC and Samsung fab operations.",
      "community": 15
    },
    {
      "id": "sk_hynix",
      "label": "SK Hynix",
      "tier": 0,
      "type": "memory",
      "seed": false,
      "choke": true,
      "note": "Controls >50% of HBM3E supply — the most acute supply chain chokepoint in AI infrastructure. Primary HBM supplier to Nvidia. Korea makes it, Taiwan packages it, Japan enables it.",
      "community": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "samsung",
      "label": "Samsung Electronics",
      "tier": 0,
      "type": "memory",
      "seed": false,
      "choke": true,
      "note": "One of only 3 HBM makers globally (with SK Hynix and Micron). Also operates fabs and designs Exynos chips. Korea's HBM monopoly = $43T+ downstream exposure.",
      "community": 7
    },
    {
      "id": "micron",
      "label": "Micron",
      "tier": 0,
      "type": "memory",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Third of the HBM triopoly. $100B HBM supply chain by 2028, controlled by just 3 companies.",
      "community": 7
    },
    {
      "id": "cxmt",
      "label": "CXMT",
      "tier": 0,
      "type": "memory",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "ChangXin Memory Technologies. China's largest DRAM maker and the world's fourth at roughly 8% share, the first entry into the Samsung/SK Hynix/Micron triopoly in over 20 years. Makes DDR5, LPDDR5X and HBM2 (in mass production ahead of schedule; HBM3 in development). $8.6bn Shanghai STAR Market IPO Jul 2026, surged 466% on debut to ~$489bn, the most valuable mainland-listed firm. Structural ceiling: no ASML EUV lithography under US export controls, so it runs DUV multi-patterning one to two nodes behind the leaders.",
      "community": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "smic",
      "label": "SMIC",
      "tier": 1,
      "type": "foundry",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "China's largest foundry. Expected to produce 30% of Huawei Ascend 910B AI chips by end 2025. Huawei plans 600,000 Ascend 910C chips in 2026 via SMIC.",
      "community": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "samsung_foundry",
      "label": "Samsung Foundry",
      "tier": 1,
      "type": "foundry",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Second-largest global foundry. Competing on 2nm GAA process. Also makes HBM — vertically integrated threat to TSMC.",
      "community": 24
    },
    {
      "id": "rapidus",
      "label": "Rapidus",
      "tier": 1,
      "type": "foundry",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Japan's state-backed 2nm foundry. ¥2.35T total government support. Partnered with IBM. Achieved 2nm GAA wafer production 3 months after EUV installation. Broadcom is a key customer.",
      "community": 9
    },
    {
      "id": "arm",
      "label": "Arm Holdings",
      "tier": 2,
      "type": "chipmaker",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "SoftBank owns 90%. Licenses the CPU architecture used in virtually every mobile chip and increasingly in AI inference (Grace CPU, AWS Graviton). SoftBank launching own AI chips.",
      "community": 8
    },
    {
      "id": "huawei",
      "label": "Huawei / HiSilicon",
      "tier": 2,
      "type": "chipmaker",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Designs Ascend 910B/910C AI chips for domestic Chinese market; Ascend 950PR now trains DeepSeek V4 end-to-end. China bought ~1M Nvidia H20 chips vs ~450K Huawei Ascend 910B in 2024. Die bank stockpiled before sanctions.",
      "community": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "qualcomm",
      "label": "Qualcomm",
      "tier": 2,
      "type": "chipmaker",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Dominates mobile SoC. Pushing into AI with Snapdragon X Elite and AI PC chips. Licensing Arm architecture.",
      "community": 8
    },
    {
      "id": "intel",
      "label": "Intel",
      "tier": 2,
      "type": "chipmaker",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Former x86 giant, now struggling. Foundry ambitions (IFS) lagging. Gaudi AI accelerators have limited traction vs Nvidia. 18A process delayed.",
      "community": 7
    },
    {
      "id": "arista",
      "label": "Arista Networks",
      "tier": 2,
      "type": "networking",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Building lossless Ethernet fabrics for AI training clusters. Key member of Ultra Ethernet Consortium (UEC). 800G AI Ethernet NICs. Threatening InfiniBand's dominance.",
      "community": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "mellanox",
      "label": "Mellanox / Nvidia Networking",
      "tier": 2,
      "type": "networking",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Acquired by Nvidia for $6.9B in 2020. InfiniBand and BlueField DPUs — the default networking fabric for AI training clusters. 15% better performance than Ethernet but 2.3x cost.",
      "community": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "equinix",
      "label": "Equinix",
      "tier": 3,
      "type": "facility",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "World's largest data center REIT. Provides colocation for AI compute. xAI, Microsoft, and others lease from Equinix for edge and core deployments.",
      "community": 22
    },
    {
      "id": "crusoe_energy",
      "label": "Crusoe Energy",
      "tier": 3,
      "type": "facility",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Modular data centers using stranded natural gas and flare gas to power AI compute. Microsoft and others partner for cloud GPU capacity.",
      "community": 5
    },
    {
      "id": "microsoft_cloud",
      "label": "Microsoft Azure",
      "tier": 3,
      "type": "compute",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Massive AI compute provider. Hosts OpenAI's workloads. Building $80B+ in AI data centers. Azure AI services generate billions in revenue.",
      "community": 5
    },
    {
      "id": "aws",
      "label": "Amazon Web Services",
      "tier": 3,
      "type": "compute",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Largest cloud provider. Building Trainium/Inferentia custom AI chips. Invested $8B in Anthropic. $650M Talen Energy nuclear deal for data center power.",
      "community": 5
    },
    {
      "id": "google_cloud",
      "label": "Google Cloud",
      "tier": 3,
      "type": "compute",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Builds custom TPU v5p/v6 for AI training. Gemini models trained in-house. Vertically integrated — designs chips, builds data centers, trains models, sells cloud.",
      "community": 2
    },
    {
      "id": "deepseek",
      "label": "DeepSeek",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "lab",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Chinese AI lab. Closed $7.4B first funding round at ~$50B valuation. Secretly backed by Chinese state funds and Tencent. DeepSeek-R1 shocked the world with open-weight reasoning parity; V4 (Apr 2026) is the first frontier-class model trained end-to-end on Huawei Ascend 950PR silicon - no Nvidia.",
      "community": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "bytedance",
      "label": "ByteDance",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "lab",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "TikTok parent. Massive AI compute buyer — reportedly ordering $7B+ of Nvidia chips. Operates Doubao AI assistant in China. Competes with OpenAI while buying their hardware.",
      "community": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "alibaba",
      "label": "Alibaba Cloud",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "lab",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Qwen model family replaced Meta's Llama as the most downloaded on Hugging Face (Sep 2025). Open-weight models. Major cloud provider in Asia.",
      "community": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "baidu",
      "label": "Baidu",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "lab",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "ERNIE 4.5 Turbo model. Early LLM leader in China. Ernie Bot chatbot. China's $8.2B National AI Industry Investment Fund supports the ecosystem.",
      "community": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "tencent",
      "label": "Tencent",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "lab",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Hunyuan AI model. Secretly backing DeepSeek. WeChat-integrated AI. Major cloud provider. Invests in numerous Chinese AI startups.",
      "community": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "zhipu",
      "label": "Zhipu AI",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "lab",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Chinese LLM startup. ~$12B valuation on Hong Kong exchange. One of China's 'Six Tigers' AI startups. Backed by Alibaba.",
      "community": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "minimax",
      "label": "MiniMax",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "lab",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Chinese AI startup. ~$15B valuation. One of the 'Six Tigers'. Listed in Hong Kong. < $70M revenue despite massive valuation.",
      "community": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "moonshot_ai",
      "label": "Moonshot AI",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "lab",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Kimi chatbot. ~$5B private valuation. One of China's Six Tigers. Known for long-context models.",
      "community": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "mistral",
      "label": "Mistral AI",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "lab",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "France's leading AI company. $14B valuation, $830M debt facility for AI datacenter near Paris with 13,800 Nvidia GB300 GPUs. European AI champion.",
      "community": 3
    },
    {
      "id": "aleph_alpha",
      "label": "Aleph Alpha",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "lab",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Germany's leading AI company. $230M funding round. Focuses on enterprise/government AI. European sovereignty play.",
      "community": 14
    },
    {
      "id": "isomorphic_labs",
      "label": "Isomorphic Labs",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "health",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Alphabet/DeepMind spinoff. Raised $2.1B total. First clinical trials expected end 2026. Uses AlphaFold for AI drug discovery. One drug cleared Phase 3.",
      "community": 6
    },
    {
      "id": "recursion",
      "label": "Recursion Pharma",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "health",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "AI drug discovery platform. Recursion OS trains ML models on biological data. Nvidia invested $50M. Clinical-stage pipeline.",
      "community": 6
    },
    {
      "id": "figure_ai",
      "label": "Figure AI",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "lab",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Humanoid robot startup. $39B valuation (2025). Backed by Bezos, OpenAI, Nvidia, Microsoft. Partnered with OpenAI for robot intelligence.",
      "community": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "sequoia",
      "label": "Sequoia Capital",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "investor",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Invested in Anthropic ($65B Series H led by Altimeter/Dragoneer/Greenoaks/Sequoia). Major AI portfolio across generations.",
      "community": 5
    },
    {
      "id": "altimeter",
      "label": "Altimeter Capital",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "investor",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Co-led Anthropic's $65B Series H. Growth equity fund focused on tech. Major AI sector investor.",
      "community": 5
    },
    {
      "id": "tencent_holding",
      "label": "Tencent Holdings",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "investor",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Secretly bankrolling DeepSeek's $50B round. Owns stakes in numerous Chinese AI startups. WeChat ecosystem gives distribution advantage.",
      "community": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "alibaba_holding",
      "label": "Alibaba Group",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "investor",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Backs Zhipu AI and other Chinese AI startups. Builds Qwen open-weight models. $8.2B China National AI Fund supports ecosystem.",
      "community": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "cn_gov_fund",
      "label": "China National AI Fund",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "investor",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "$8.2B National AI Industry Investment Fund launched Jan 2025. State-directed capital for AI self-sufficiency. Part of China's full-stack industrial policy for AI.",
      "community": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "uGovt",
      "label": "UAE Government",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "investor",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "UAE ranks 2nd globally in AI capability. 5GW AI cluster planned with US. Sovereign models: Falcon (TII), Jais. World's largest AI campus outside US.",
      "community": 8
    },
    {
      "id": "saudi_aramco",
      "label": "Saudi Arabia / PIF",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "investor",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Massive AI investments via Public Investment Fund. $100B+ committed to AI and tech. Building data centers and sovereign AI capability.",
      "community": 8
    },
    {
      "id": "japan_meti",
      "label": "Japan METI",
      "tier": 2,
      "type": "regulator",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. Directs a FY2026 AI and semiconductor budget of about Y1.23tn, roughly four times the prior year, inside a total METI budget of about Y3.07tn. Funds Rapidus, Tower Semiconductor Japan and the FRONTia physical-AI programme, and certifies supply plans under the Economic Security Promotion Act.",
      "community": 9
    },
    {
      "id": "google_quantum",
      "label": "Google Quantum AI",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "quantum",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Willow chip: first verifiable quantum advantage. Quantum Echoes algorithm breakthrough. Exponential error suppression demonstrated — logical errors decrease as qubits increase.",
      "community": 6
    },
    {
      "id": "ibm_quantum",
      "label": "IBM Quantum",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "quantum",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Longest quantum roadmap in industry. Partnered with Rapidus for 2nm chips. Heron processor. Fault-tolerance roadmap to 100,000+ qubits by 2033.",
      "community": 4
    },
    {
      "id": "ionq",
      "label": "IonQ",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "quantum",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Trapped-ion quantum computing. Publicly traded. Collaborating with Amazon Braket and Google Cloud for quantum access.",
      "community": 23
    },
    {
      "id": "vertiv",
      "label": "Vertiv",
      "tier": 3,
      "type": "infra",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Power and cooling for AI data centers. Traditional cooling can't meet AI workload needs. Liquid cooling, power distribution, thermal management.",
      "community": 26
    },
    {
      "id": "celestica",
      "label": "Celestica",
      "tier": 3,
      "type": "infra",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "AI infrastructure and power systems from data center core to edge. Advanced design and lifecycle management. Key Nvidia GPU cluster integrator.",
      "community": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "constellation",
      "label": "Constellation Energy",
      "tier": 3,
      "type": "infra",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Microsoft PPA for Three Mile Island restart. 835MW, 20-year deal worth $16B. Nuclear renaissance driven by AI power demand.",
      "community": 5
    },
    {
      "id": "talent_energy",
      "label": "Talen Energy",
      "tier": 3,
      "type": "infra",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Amazon's $650M nuclear data center deal. Susquehanna nuclear station. Big tech signing 10GW+ of new US nuclear capacity.",
      "community": 5
    },
    {
      "id": "dario_amodei",
      "label": "Dario Amodei",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "person",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "CEO of Anthropic. Former VP of Research at OpenAI. Sister Daniela Amodei is President. Anthropic valued at ~$965B post-money (Series H, May 2026).",
      "community": 3
    },
    {
      "id": "liang_wenfeng",
      "label": "Liang Wenfeng",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "person",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Founder of DeepSeek. Former hedge fund manager (High-Flyer). $50B valuation, $7.4B raised. Disrupted global AI with open-weight reasoning models.",
      "community": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "sundar_pichai",
      "label": "S. Pichai",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "person",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "CEO of Alphabet/Google. Overseeing Gemini, TPU, Google Cloud AI, DeepMind, and Isomorphic Labs.",
      "community": 6
    },
    {
      "id": "jensen_huang",
      "label": "Jensen Huang",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "person",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Founder & CEO of Nvidia (single share class). ~81% data-center GPU share by revenue; every AI lab depends on his chips.",
      "community": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "masayoshi_son",
      "label": "M. Son",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "person",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "CEO of SoftBank. Owns 90% of Arm Holdings. Co-leader of Stargate ($500B). Major Nvidia investor. $100B Vision Fund deployed across AI.",
      "community": 8
    },
    {
      "id": "sandboxaq",
      "label": "SandboxAQ",
      "tier": 3,
      "type": "quantum",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Alphabet/Google X spin-out (Mar 2022), CEO Jack Hidary, chair Eric Schmidt. Fuses AI + quantum: post-quantum cryptography (AQtive Guard), quantum sensing/navigation (AQNav) and Large Quantitative Models (LQMs) for scientific discovery. Series E closed $450M at a $5.75B valuation (Apr 2025) + $150M extension led by Google & NVIDIA; total raised >$1B. Central hub of US/allied post-quantum defense: DoW CIO 5-yr PQC deal, DIU quantum navigation, $500M CHIPS materials award (govt took equity), NATO DIANA, White House PQC EO support, FedRAMP Ready.",
      "community": 6
    },
    {
      "id": "sam_altman",
      "label": "Sam Altman",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "person",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "CEO & co-founder of OpenAI. Personally seeded longevity firm Retro Biosciences ($180M) and co-founded BCI startup Merge Labs. Backer of Stargate.",
      "community": 3
    },
    {
      "id": "jeff_bezos",
      "label": "Jeff Bezos",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "person",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Founder & exec chair of Amazon. Funds Blue Origin and AI venture Prometheus; investor in cellular-rejuvenation firm Altos Labs.",
      "community": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "alex_karp",
      "label": "Alex Karp",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "person",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Co-founder & CEO of Palantir. Champions AI 'sovereignty' and Western defense supremacy; vocal critic of closed frontier labs.",
      "community": 2
    },
    {
      "id": "satya_nadella",
      "label": "Satya Nadella",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "person",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Chairman & CEO of Microsoft. Architect of the OpenAI partnership and Azure's AI buildout; hedging with in-house Microsoft AI models.",
      "community": 2
    },
    {
      "id": "demis_hassabis",
      "label": "Demis Hassabis",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "person",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Co-founder & CEO of Google DeepMind; 2024 Nobel laureate. Founder of Isomorphic Labs. Calls AGI an 'infinity machine' 5-10 years out.",
      "community": 6
    },
    {
      "id": "ilya_sutskever",
      "label": "Ilya Sutskever",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "person",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Co-founder & CEO of Safe Superintelligence. Ex-OpenAI chief scientist. Building superintelligence with safety as the sole product.",
      "community": 3
    },
    {
      "id": "mira_murati",
      "label": "Mira Murati",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "person",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Founder & CEO of Thinking Machines Lab. Ex-OpenAI CTO. Raised one of the largest seed rounds on record.",
      "community": 3
    },
    {
      "id": "alexandr_wang",
      "label": "Alexandr Wang",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "person",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Chief AI Officer of Meta Superintelligence Labs. Founder of Scale AI, which Meta backed in a landmark 2025 deal.",
      "community": 3
    },
    {
      "id": "palantir",
      "label": "Palantir",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "company",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Defense & government AI (AIP + Ontology). Powers a NATO battlefield AI layer; partners Nvidia for sovereign AI. Listed NASDAQ:PLTR.",
      "community": 2
    },
    {
      "id": "neuralink",
      "label": "Neuralink",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "health",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Musk's brain-computer interface company. 12 human implants by Sep 2025; ~$9.7B valuation; Blindsight visual-cortex trial and automated robotic surgery targeted for 2026.",
      "community": 3
    },
    {
      "id": "merge_labs",
      "label": "Merge Labs",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "health",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "BCI startup co-founded by Sam Altman to rival Neuralink; merging human brains with AI.",
      "community": 3
    },
    {
      "id": "retro_bio",
      "label": "Retro Biosciences",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "health",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Longevity biotech seeded by Sam Altman ($180M); ~$1.8B valuation (2026). RTR242 autophagy pill in first-in-human Alzheimer's trial; used OpenAI's GPT-4b micro to make cell reprogramming ~50x more efficient.",
      "community": 3
    },
    {
      "id": "altos_labs",
      "label": "Altos Labs",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "health",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Cellular-reprogramming longevity firm (~$5B). Funded by Jeff Bezos among others.",
      "community": 6
    },
    {
      "id": "blue_origin",
      "label": "Blue Origin",
      "tier": 3,
      "type": "company",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Bezos's space company; raising outside capital for the first time. Space infrastructure for the AI era.",
      "community": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "prometheus_ai",
      "label": "Prometheus (Bezos)",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "lab",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Jeff Bezos's new AI venture, building an 'artificial general engineer'. Distinct from Meta's Prometheus data center.",
      "community": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "microsoft_ai",
      "label": "Microsoft AI",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "lab",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Microsoft's in-house model & Copilot group; a hedge against OpenAI dependence. Custom Maia silicon.",
      "community": 2
    },
    {
      "id": "safe_superintelligence",
      "label": "Safe Superintelligence",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "lab",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Ilya Sutskever's lab. One goal - safe superintelligence, no interim products; raised at a multi-billion valuation with no revenue.",
      "community": 3
    },
    {
      "id": "thinking_machines",
      "label": "Thinking Machines Lab",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "lab",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Mira Murati's lab. Ex-OpenAI talent; capable, broadly useful, transparent AI.",
      "community": 3
    },
    {
      "id": "calico",
      "label": "Calico Labs",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "health",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Alphabet's secretive anti-ageing biotech (2013); AI-driven longevity research.",
      "community": 6
    },
    {
      "id": "th_superintelligence",
      "label": "Superintelligence",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "theme",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "The race to AGI and superintelligence itself — the core bet under every frontier lab.",
      "community": 3
    },
    {
      "id": "th_longevity",
      "label": "Longevity",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "theme",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Extending healthy human lifespan; the founders' biological bet, attacked with AI.",
      "community": 6
    },
    {
      "id": "th_robotics",
      "label": "Robotics",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "theme",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Humanoid robots and embodied AI — turning cheap intelligence into cheap physical labour.",
      "community": 2
    },
    {
      "id": "th_space",
      "label": "Space",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "theme",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Launch, connectivity and eventually off-Earth compute and industry.",
      "community": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "th_defense",
      "label": "Defense & Sovereignty",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "theme",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Military, intelligence and sovereign-government AI.",
      "community": 2
    },
    {
      "id": "th_energy",
      "label": "Energy",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "theme",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Power for compute — nuclear, gas and grid — the binding constraint of the buildout.",
      "community": 5
    },
    {
      "id": "th_bci",
      "label": "Brain-Computer Interfaces",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "theme",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Connecting the human brain directly to machines.",
      "community": 3
    },
    {
      "id": "apple",
      "label": "Apple",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "company",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Consumer-hardware giant. A 2024 ChatGPT partnership with OpenAI soured into a July 2026 trade-secrets lawsuit; Apple claims 400+ ex-Apple staff now work at OpenAI. Listed NASDAQ:AAPL.",
      "community": 3
    },
    {
      "id": "scale_ai",
      "label": "Scale AI",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "company",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Data-labelling company. Meta took a ~$14B stake and hired founder Alexandr Wang to run Meta Superintelligence Labs (2025).",
      "community": 3
    },
    {
      "id": "sb_energy",
      "label": "SB Energy",
      "tier": 3,
      "type": "infra",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "SoftBank's energy arm. OpenAI + SoftBank invested $1B (Jan 2026) for AI data-centre power.",
      "community": 8
    },
    {
      "id": "core_scientific",
      "label": "Core Scientific",
      "tier": 3,
      "type": "facility",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "GPU hosting and data centres; ~$6.7B of 12-year hosting contracts with CoreWeave.",
      "community": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "msra",
      "label": "Microsoft Research Asia",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "lab",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Microsoft Research Asia (Beijing). A talent source for DeepSeek - several DeepSeek staff, including a department chief, are MSRA alumni.",
      "community": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "tsinghua_keg",
      "label": "Tsinghua KEG",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "lab",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Tsinghua University Knowledge Engineering Group; spun out Zhipu AI (2019).",
      "community": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "us_gov",
      "label": "U.S. Government",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "investor",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "U.S. federal government (Dept of Commerce / CHIPS). $500M CHIPS R&D award to SandboxAQ; hosted the Stargate announcement at the White House.",
      "community": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "eric_schmidt",
      "label": "Eric Schmidt",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "person",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Former Google CEO & Chairman (2001-2011); now Chairman of SandboxAQ. Chaired the U.S. National Security Commission on AI.",
      "community": 6
    },
    {
      "id": "jack_hidary",
      "label": "Jack Hidary",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "person",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Founder & CEO of SandboxAQ; built it inside Google's X (Moonshot) lab over ~6 years before the 2022 spin-out.",
      "community": 6
    },
    {
      "id": "yann_lecun",
      "label": "Yann LeCun",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "person",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Turing Award laureate. Left Meta after 12 years as chief AI scientist over strategy disagreements with Zuckerberg; planning his own firm.",
      "community": 3
    },
    {
      "id": "nebius",
      "label": "Nebius Group",
      "tier": 3,
      "type": "compute",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Amsterdam-based 'neocloud' (ex-Yandex). $27B Meta compute deal, $2B Nvidia investment, $1B+ Reflection AI deal - a major GB300 provider.",
      "community": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "g42",
      "label": "G42",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "company",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "UAE national AI champion. Building the Stargate UAE cluster in Abu Dhabi; linked to MGX sovereign capital.",
      "community": 2
    },
    {
      "id": "stargate_uae",
      "label": "Stargate UAE",
      "tier": 3,
      "type": "facility",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "International arm of Stargate: a 1GW AI cluster in Abu Dhabi (200MW live 2026), built by G42 with MGX capital.",
      "community": 8
    },
    {
      "id": "peter_thiel",
      "label": "Peter Thiel",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "person",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "PayPal Mafia co-founder. Co-founded Palantir; runs Founders Fund; backed Anduril; central node of the 'reactionary' tech-defense-政 network.",
      "community": 3
    },
    {
      "id": "anduril",
      "label": "Anduril",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "company",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Defense-tech (autonomous systems). Thiel/Founders Fund-backed; part of the Palantir-adjacent defense cluster.",
      "community": 2
    },
    {
      "id": "iren",
      "label": "IREN Limited",
      "tier": 3,
      "type": "infra",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Data-centre / AI-infrastructure firm; Nvidia committed up to $2.1B (5-yr option) - another circular GPU-infrastructure loop.",
      "community": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "coherent",
      "label": "Coherent",
      "tier": 0,
      "type": "networking",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Silicon-photonics / optical components. Nvidia invested $2B (Mar 2026) + purchase commitment for AI-factory optics.",
      "community": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "lumentum",
      "label": "Lumentum",
      "tier": 0,
      "type": "networking",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Optics/photonics. Nvidia invested $2B (Mar 2026) for R&D and a new US fab supplying gigawatt-scale AI factories.",
      "community": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "corning",
      "label": "Corning",
      "tier": 0,
      "type": "infra",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Glass / optical-fibre for data centres. Nvidia invested $500M (Mar 2026) for advanced optical connectivity.",
      "community": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "nscale",
      "label": "Nscale",
      "tier": 3,
      "type": "compute",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "UK AI-native 'neocloud' (GPU-as-a-service). $2B Series C (Mar 2026, ~$14.6B val) with Nvidia participating; serves Microsoft & OpenAI.",
      "community": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "boring_company",
      "label": "The Boring Company",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "company",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Musk tunnelling venture; part of the Musk personal-conglomerate interlock (shared staff/board with Tesla/SpaceX/Neuralink).",
      "community": 3
    },
    {
      "id": "t_head",
      "label": "T-Head (Alibaba)",
      "tier": 2,
      "type": "chipmaker",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Alibaba's T-Head / Pingtouge chip-design arm. Zhenwu 810E and M890 (144GB on-chip, ~3x) built as domestic Nvidia-GPU alternatives.",
      "community": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "damo_academy",
      "label": "DAMO Academy",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "lab",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Alibaba's global research institute (est. 2017); produces Qwen models, medical AI and chip designs.",
      "community": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "qwen",
      "label": "Qwen (Alibaba)",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "lab",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Alibaba's Qwen open + commercial LLM family (ex-Tongyi); widely used on Hugging Face.",
      "community": 3
    },
    {
      "id": "zeroone_ai",
      "label": "01.AI",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "lab",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Kai-Fu Lee's Chinese LLM startup; Alibaba Cloud led an investment round. One of the 'AI Tigers'.",
      "community": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "baichuan",
      "label": "Baichuan Intelligence",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "lab",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Chinese LLM startup; one of the 'four AI Tigers'; Alibaba-backed.",
      "community": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "sensetime",
      "label": "SenseTime",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "lab",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Once the world's most valuable AI startup; Alibaba led a $600M round at $3B (2018).",
      "community": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "manus_ai",
      "label": "Manus AI",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "lab",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Chinese agentic-AI startup; strategic partner of Alibaba's Qwen team (2025).",
      "community": 3
    },
    {
      "id": "ant_group",
      "label": "Ant Group",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "company",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Alibaba-affiliated fintech (Alipay); ML credit-risk, fraud and insurance pricing.",
      "community": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "cainiao",
      "label": "Cainiao",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "company",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Alibaba's AI logistics arm (~64% stake); smart supply chain.",
      "community": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "lazada",
      "label": "Lazada",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "company",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Alibaba's SE-Asia e-commerce platform; ~$2B AI investment.",
      "community": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "joe_tsai",
      "label": "Joe Tsai",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "person",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Chairman of Alibaba Group.",
      "community": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "eddie_wu",
      "label": "Eddie Wu",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "person",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "CEO of Alibaba + Cloud Intelligence lead; announced the $53B / ¥380B AI-infrastructure plan.",
      "community": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "valar_ventures",
      "label": "Valar Ventures",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "investor",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Peter Thiel's international VC firm (2010).",
      "community": 3
    },
    {
      "id": "panthalassa",
      "label": "Panthalassa",
      "tier": 3,
      "type": "infra",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Wave-powered AI data-centre startup; personally backed by Peter Thiel (~$140M).",
      "community": 3
    },
    {
      "id": "paypal_mafia",
      "label": "PayPal Mafia",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "company",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "The PayPal-alumni network (Thiel, Musk et al.) that spawned Palantir, SpaceX, Founders Fund, Anduril, YouTube, LinkedIn.",
      "community": 3
    },
    {
      "id": "joe_lonsdale",
      "label": "Joe Lonsdale",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "person",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Palantir co-founder; founder of 8VC and the University of Austin; Thiel-network lieutenant.",
      "community": 2
    },
    {
      "id": "in_q_tel",
      "label": "In-Q-Tel",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "investor",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "The CIA's venture-capital arm; an early Palantir investor alongside Thiel.",
      "community": 2
    },
    {
      "id": "us_defense",
      "label": "U.S. DoD / Army",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "investor",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "U.S. Department of Defense / Army - Palantir defense customer ($250M AI/ML R&D).",
      "community": 2
    },
    {
      "id": "us_ice",
      "label": "U.S. ICE",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "investor",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "U.S. Immigration & Customs Enforcement - Palantir 'ImmigrationOS' customer.",
      "community": 2
    },
    {
      "id": "idf",
      "label": "Israel IDF",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "investor",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Israel Defense Forces - reported user of Palantir AI targeting.",
      "community": 2
    },
    {
      "id": "uk_gov",
      "label": "U.K. Government",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "investor",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "U.K. government - Palantir NHS + Ministry of Defence contracts (£670M+).",
      "community": 5
    },
    {
      "id": "x_twitter",
      "label": "X (Twitter)",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "company",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Social platform absorbed into the SpaceX/xAI entity; a real-time data corpus for Grok training.",
      "community": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "dojo",
      "label": "Tesla Dojo",
      "tier": 3,
      "type": "facility",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Tesla's custom AI training supercomputer (disbanded 2024, restarted 2026).",
      "community": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "igor_babuschkin",
      "label": "Igor Babuschkin",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "person",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "xAI co-founder & chief engineer (ex-Google DeepMind, ex-OpenAI); departed.",
      "community": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "christian_szegedy",
      "label": "Christian Szegedy",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "person",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "xAI co-founder (ex-Google); departed.",
      "community": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "toby_pohlen",
      "label": "Toby Pohlen",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "person",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "xAI founding member (led 'Macrohard'); departed.",
      "community": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "manuel_kroiss",
      "label": "Manuel Kroiss",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "person",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "xAI co-founder (led pretraining); departed.",
      "community": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "greg_yang",
      "label": "Greg Yang",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "person",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "xAI co-founder; departed.",
      "community": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "kyle_kosic",
      "label": "Kyle Kosic",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "person",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "xAI co-founder; departed (2024).",
      "community": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "jimmy_ba",
      "label": "Jimmy Ba",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "person",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "xAI co-founder; departed.",
      "community": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "tony_wu",
      "label": "Tony Wu",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "person",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "xAI co-founder; departed.",
      "community": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "terafab",
      "label": "Terafab",
      "tier": 2,
      "type": "chipmaker",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "$25B Tesla + SpaceX + xAI + Intel chip JV (Apr 2026, Texas) to cut Nvidia dependency.",
      "community": 7
    },
    {
      "id": "defense_ai_consortium",
      "label": "Defense AI Consortium",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "company",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Joint bid for U.S. military AI contracts: Palantir + Anduril + SpaceX + OpenAI + Saronic + Scale AI - disrupting the traditional primes.",
      "community": 2
    },
    {
      "id": "saronic",
      "label": "Saronic",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "company",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Autonomous-naval defense startup; member of the defense-AI consortium.",
      "community": 2
    },
    {
      "id": "dhs",
      "label": "U.S. DHS",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "investor",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Department of Homeland Security - Palantir's #1 federal customer (ICE/ImmigrationOS).",
      "community": 2
    },
    {
      "id": "us_army",
      "label": "U.S. Army",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "investor",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Awarded Palantir a $10B software/data deal (2025) + TITAN; runs Maven targeting.",
      "community": 2
    },
    {
      "id": "us_cdao",
      "label": "DoD CDAO",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "investor",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Pentagon Chief Digital & AI Office - awarded $200M 'frontier AI' contracts to OpenAI and Anthropic.",
      "community": 5
    },
    {
      "id": "nasa",
      "label": "NASA",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "investor",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Awarded SpaceX the $2.89B Human Landing System (Artemis) + Commercial Crew.",
      "community": 4
    },
    {
      "id": "space_force",
      "label": "U.S. Space Force",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "investor",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "SpaceX Starshield + launch contracts (~$6.5B + $5.9B).",
      "community": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "nro",
      "label": "U.S. NRO",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "investor",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "National Reconnaissance Office - SpaceX building a classified spy-satellite network (Starshield).",
      "community": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "nato",
      "label": "NATO NCIA",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "investor",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "NATO Communications & Information Agency - Palantir Maven Smart System deployment (2025).",
      "community": 2
    },
    {
      "id": "white_house",
      "label": "White House / OSTP",
      "tier": 2,
      "type": "investor",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Trump administration now gates which frontier AI models federal agencies may use (Projects Glasswing/Daybreak).",
      "community": 5
    },
    {
      "id": "us_ic",
      "label": "U.S. Intelligence Community",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "investor",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "CIA / NSA - Palantir Gotham customer; AWS holds the NSA cloud contract.",
      "community": 5
    },
    {
      "id": "lockheed",
      "label": "Lockheed Martin",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "company",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Defense prime; uses Meta's Llama for USAF/Navy pilot training & simulation.",
      "community": 8
    },
    {
      "id": "supermicro",
      "label": "Supermicro",
      "tier": 3,
      "type": "infra",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Server/infra vendor; built xAI's 100k-GPU Colossus cluster.",
      "community": 5
    },
    {
      "id": "synchron",
      "label": "Synchron",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "health",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Brain-computer interface rival to Neuralink (minimally-invasive, vein-threaded).",
      "community": 3
    },
    {
      "id": "paradromics",
      "label": "Paradromics",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "health",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Brain-computer interface rival to Neuralink (durability / data-rate focus).",
      "community": 3
    },
    {
      "id": "humain",
      "label": "HUMAIN (Saudi PIF)",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "compute",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Wholly-owned Saudi PIF AI-infrastructure firm (launched May 2025); aims to be the world's #3 AI provider. Building AI factories with Nvidia, AMD, AWS, Groq, Qualcomm; invested $3B in xAI.",
      "community": 8
    },
    {
      "id": "tii",
      "label": "TII (UAE)",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "lab",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "UAE Technology Innovation Institute; built the sovereign 'Falcon' LLM.",
      "community": 2
    },
    {
      "id": "cisco",
      "label": "Cisco",
      "tier": 2,
      "type": "networking",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Networking; JV with AMD + HUMAIN for 1GW of Saudi AI infrastructure.",
      "community": 8
    },
    {
      "id": "groq",
      "label": "Groq",
      "tier": 2,
      "type": "chipmaker",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "LPU inference-chip maker; $1.5B commitment to build inference capacity in Saudi Arabia (HUMAIN).",
      "community": 8
    },
    {
      "id": "us_air_force",
      "label": "U.S. Air Force",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "investor",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Oracle $88M Cloud One; Lockheed uses Meta's Llama for USAF pilot training.",
      "community": 8
    },
    {
      "id": "tiktok",
      "label": "TikTok",
      "tier": 1,
      "type": "company",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "ByteDance's short-video platform; US operations restructured into a JV (Oracle / Silver Lake / MGX, 15% each; ByteDance 19.9%) in the $14bn Jan-2026 deal. 170M+ US users.",
      "community": 8
    },
    {
      "id": "kunlunxin",
      "label": "Kunlunxin",
      "tier": 2,
      "type": "chipmaker",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Baidu's spun-off AI-chip unit (Kunlun M100 / M300); pursuing a ~$50bn Hong Kong IPO as a domestic Nvidia alternative.",
      "community": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "high_flyer",
      "label": "High-Flyer Capital",
      "tier": 3,
      "type": "investor",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Liang Wenfeng's quant hedge fund; founded DeepSeek in 2023 as a spin-off and was its sole backer until DeepSeek's $7.4bn 2026 round at a $50bn valuation.",
      "community": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "kai_fu_lee",
      "label": "Kai-Fu Lee",
      "tier": 3,
      "type": "person",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "01.AI founder and Sinovation Ventures chair; ex-Apple, founding director of Microsoft Research Asia, founding President of Google China - a key US-China AI bridge figure.",
      "community": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "robin_li",
      "label": "Robin Li",
      "tier": 3,
      "type": "person",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Co-founder and CEO of Baidu; champion of Ernie and of 'AI agents' as Baidu's core success metric.",
      "community": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "yao_shunyu",
      "label": "Yao Shunyu",
      "tier": 3,
      "type": "person",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Tencent's chief AI scientist and a former OpenAI researcher - a direct talent pipeline from OpenAI into Tencent.",
      "community": 11
    },
    {
      "id": "iflytek",
      "label": "iFlytek",
      "tier": 2,
      "type": "company",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "China's dominant speech-AI firm (60%+ of the market, 700M+ users); Spark LLM. US-sanctioned, redirecting $337m from US tech to domestic (Huawei Ascend) compute.",
      "community": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "waymo",
      "label": "Waymo",
      "tier": 1,
      "type": "company",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Alphabet's robotaxi unit; the Western robotaxi benchmark now being overtaken in global ride volume by Baidu's Apollo Go.",
      "community": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "chinese_gov",
      "label": "Chinese Government (PRC)",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "investor",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "The PRC state: a $295bn national AI-compute plan, an 80% domestic-chip sourcing mandate, AI-talent travel controls, and counter-sanctions on US defense firms.",
      "community": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "cac",
      "label": "Cyberspace Administration of China",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "regulator",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "China's AI regulator: mandatory generative-AI model registration and content rules - the world's most extensive binding AI regulatory regime.",
      "community": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "saudi_gov",
      "label": "Saudi Arabia (Government)",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "investor",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Saudi state; deepening AI and space-tech cooperation with China in support of Vision 2030 (alongside its US-facing HUMAIN / PIF compute bets).",
      "community": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "south_korea_gov",
      "label": "South Korea (Government)",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "investor",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "South Korean state; courted by sanctioned Chinese AI firms (SenseTime) seeking government AI-cooperation footholds outside China.",
      "community": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "ustc",
      "label": "USTC (Zuchongzhi)",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "quantum",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "University of Science & Technology of China — hub of China's superconducting-quantum programme. Zuchongzhi 3.0 (105 qubits, Mar 2025) claimed quantum computational advantage; team led by Pan Jianwei. Also runs the Micius satellite QKD work.",
      "community": 6
    },
    {
      "id": "origin_quantum",
      "label": "Origin Quantum",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "quantum",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "China's leading commercial superconducting quantum-computer maker (Hefei). Origin Wukong cloud (72-qubit, 2024) scaled to the 4th-gen Wukong-180 (180 computational + 251 coupling qubits, May 2026); fully domestic chip/control/OS stack. Cloud has logged 30M+ visits and surpassed 1M completed tasks from users in 192 countries (Jun 2026).",
      "community": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "pan_jianwei",
      "label": "Pan Jianwei",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "person",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "China's foremost quantum physicist (USTC) — leads the Zuchongzhi superconducting series and the Micius satellite quantum-key-distribution programme.",
      "community": 6
    },
    {
      "id": "ampere",
      "label": "Ampere Computing",
      "tier": 2,
      "type": "chipmaker",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Arm-based server / AI CPU designer (Santa Clara). Acquired by SoftBank for $6.5bn (completed Nov 2025) as a pillar of SoftBank's AI-hardware build-out.",
      "community": 8
    },
    {
      "id": "sec",
      "label": "U.S. SEC",
      "tier": 3,
      "type": "regulator",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Anthropic filed a confidential draft S-1 on 1 Jun 2026.",
      "community": 5
    },
    {
      "id": "aqtive_guard",
      "label": "AQtive Guard",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "theme",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "SandboxAQ cryptographic-management platform: automated discovery/inventory of crypto assets for post-quantum migration. FedRAMP Ready (Dec 2025), SOC 2 Type I, ISO/IEC 27001.",
      "community": 6
    },
    {
      "id": "lqm",
      "label": "Large Quantitative Models",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "theme",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "SandboxAQ LQMs - AI trained on scientific equations + real-world lab data (not text tokens like LLMs); high-resolution equation-based simulation for the $50T+ quantitative economy (biopharma, materials, finance, energy).",
      "community": 6
    },
    {
      "id": "aqnav",
      "label": "AQNav",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "theme",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "SandboxAQ quantum magnetic-anomaly navigation: quantum sensors + AI for resilient PNT in GPS-denied environments. 450+ flight hours across 4 aircraft types incl. USAF.",
      "community": 6
    },
    {
      "id": "reaqt",
      "label": "ReAQT",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "theme",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "SandboxAQ AI-native simulation platform for materials/chemistry discovery; core to the $500M CHIPS semiconductor-materials programme.",
      "community": 6
    },
    {
      "id": "dow_cio",
      "label": "Department of War CIO",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "investor",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Office of the U.S. Department of War (DoW) CIO; five-year agreement to deploy AQtive Guard for department-wide post-quantum cryptography migration.",
      "community": 6
    },
    {
      "id": "diu",
      "label": "Defense Innovation Unit",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "investor",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "DoW commercial-tech accelerator; runs the Transition of Quantum Sensing (TQS) program that adopted SandboxAQ AQNav.",
      "community": 6
    },
    {
      "id": "commerce",
      "label": "U.S. Dept of Commerce (CHIPS/NIST)",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "investor",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Commerce CHIPS R&D Office; signed a $500M award to SandboxAQ (Jun 2026) and took a minority non-controlling equity stake.",
      "community": 6
    },
    {
      "id": "nato_diana",
      "label": "NATO DIANA",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "investor",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "NATO Defence Innovation Accelerator for the North Atlantic; SandboxAQ selected into the 2025 cohort (~70 of 2,600+ applicants, 32 countries) for AQNav.",
      "community": 6
    },
    {
      "id": "ray_dalio",
      "label": "Ray Dalio",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "person",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Bridgewater founder; Series E investor in SandboxAQ.",
      "community": 6
    },
    {
      "id": "t_rowe_price",
      "label": "T. Rowe Price",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "investor",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Early and ongoing institutional investor in SandboxAQ (from 2022 launch).",
      "community": 6
    },
    {
      "id": "breyer_capital",
      "label": "Breyer Capital",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "investor",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Jim Breyer fund; early investor in SandboxAQ (from 2022 launch).",
      "community": 6
    },
    {
      "id": "marc_benioff",
      "label": "Marc Benioff",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "person",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Salesforce chair/CEO; investor in SandboxAQ.",
      "community": 6
    },
    {
      "id": "bnp_paribas",
      "label": "BNP Paribas",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "bank",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "European bank; Series E investor in SandboxAQ.",
      "community": 6
    },
    {
      "id": "horizon_kinetics",
      "label": "Horizon Kinetics",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "investor",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Asset manager; Series E investor in SandboxAQ.",
      "community": 6
    },
    {
      "id": "crowdstrike",
      "label": "CrowdStrike",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "company",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Cybersecurity firm; PQC-migration ecosystem partner referenced in SandboxAQ White House EO support.",
      "community": 4
    },
    {
      "id": "palo_alto",
      "label": "Palo Alto Networks",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "company",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Cybersecurity firm; PQC-migration ecosystem partner referenced in SandboxAQ White House EO support.",
      "community": 6
    },
    {
      "id": "cambricon",
      "label": "Cambricon",
      "tier": 2,
      "type": "chipmaker",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "China's most prominent listed AI chip designer (Shanghai STAR Market 688256), often called 'China's Nvidia'. Market cap around CNY 780bn (roughly $110bn); briefly the first STAR Market stock to top CNY 1 trillion in June 2026, up about 77% year to date. Reported as a chip supplier to DeepSeek. Fabricated domestically at SMIC on older nodes.",
      "community": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "marvell",
      "label": "Marvell",
      "tier": 2,
      "type": "chipmaker",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "US custom AI silicon (XPUs and ASICs) and data-center interconnect, market cap around $230bn after a roughly 247% run in 2026. Designs custom accelerators for hyperscalers including Alphabet, Amazon and Microsoft, with custom-silicon revenue targeted above $10bn by fiscal 2029.",
      "community": 5
    },
    {
      "id": "cerebras",
      "label": "Cerebras",
      "tier": 2,
      "type": "chipmaker",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "US wafer-scale AI compute (WSE-3 and the CS-3 system, the largest chip ever sold). Listed on Nasdaq as CBRS in May 2026, opening up about 68%, at a market cap near $67bn. Anchored by a 750MW, $20bn-plus multi-year compute agreement with OpenAI.",
      "community": 3
    },
    {
      "id": "sugon",
      "label": "Sugon (Dawning)",
      "tier": 3,
      "type": "compute",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Chinese Academy of Sciences spin-off and one of Asia's largest supercomputer builders, on the US Entity List. In 2026 it moved to merge with Hygon (around $56bn) into a vertically integrated domestic AI-compute stack and unveiled the Sugon 8000, a 100,000-card AI supercluster.",
      "community": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "biren",
      "label": "Biren Technology",
      "tier": 3,
      "type": "chipmaker",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Private Chinese GPGPU startup. Its BR100 claimed H100-class performance in 2022 before US export controls forced TSMC to halt production, leaving it dependent on domestic fabrication. Showed super-node products at WAIC 2026.",
      "community": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "moore_threads",
      "label": "Moore Threads",
      "tier": 3,
      "type": "chipmaker",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Private Chinese GPU designer building domestic AI accelerators and super-node clusters (WAIC 2026), constrained by domestic manufacturing relative to TSMC's leading edge.",
      "community": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "enflame",
      "label": "Enflame",
      "tier": 3,
      "type": "chipmaker",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Tencent-backed Chinese AI accelerator startup, part of the domestic super-node ecosystem shown at WAIC 2026 and limited by SMIC-class manufacturing.",
      "community": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "osaia",
      "label": "Open Secure AI Alliance",
      "tier": 2,
      "type": "standards",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Formed 27 Jul 2026 by Nvidia and 36 others to build open-source AI security tooling. Open-sourced NOOA, a framework for testing and auditing agent behaviour. The Cloud Security Alliance calls it a standards body without a charter. OpenAI, Google and Meta signed the letter but are not inaugural members; Anthropic is on neither list.",
      "community": 4
    },
    {
      "id": "ftc",
      "label": "U.S. FTC",
      "tier": 3,
      "type": "regulator",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "U.S. Federal Trade Commission. Opened a probe into Arm Holdings, disclosed around its Q1 FY2027 results in July 2026.",
      "community": 8
    },
    {
      "id": "ibm",
      "label": "IBM",
      "tier": 3,
      "type": "company",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Founding member of the Open Secure AI Alliance. Distinct from its quantum programme, which is mapped separately.",
      "community": 4
    },
    {
      "id": "databricks",
      "label": "Databricks",
      "tier": 3,
      "type": "company",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Data and AI platform. Founding member of the Open Secure AI Alliance.",
      "community": 4
    },
    {
      "id": "cloudflare",
      "label": "Cloudflare",
      "tier": 3,
      "type": "company",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Network and security infrastructure. Founding member of the Open Secure AI Alliance.",
      "community": 4
    },
    {
      "id": "huggingface",
      "label": "Hugging Face",
      "tier": 3,
      "type": "company",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Model and dataset hub. A breach in which OpenAI test models escaped a sandbox, and where closed AI tooling blocked forensic analysis, was the trigger for the Open Secure AI Alliance. Also a founding member.",
      "community": 4
    },
    {
      "id": "red_hat",
      "label": "Red Hat",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "company",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Enterprise open-source vendor. Founding member of the Open Secure AI Alliance.",
      "community": 4
    },
    {
      "id": "linux_foundation",
      "label": "Linux Foundation",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "standards",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Open-source governance body. Founding member of the Open Secure AI Alliance.",
      "community": 4
    },
    {
      "id": "pike_county",
      "label": "Pike County Campus",
      "tier": 3,
      "type": "facility",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Planned 10GW OpenAI data centre campus in Pike County, Ohio. The asset behind the reported Nvidia credit backstop of up to $250bn.",
      "community": 3
    },
    {
      "id": "c_doge",
      "label": "DOGE",
      "tier": 3,
      "type": "concept",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "U.S. Department of Government Efficiency. A target of statements, not an operating entity in this map.",
      "community": 19
    },
    {
      "id": "c_ai_regulation",
      "label": "AI Regulation",
      "tier": 3,
      "type": "concept",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Government rulemaking on frontier AI. Contested between industry self-governance and statutory oversight.",
      "community": 17
    },
    {
      "id": "c_ai_lethality",
      "label": "AI Lethality",
      "tier": 3,
      "type": "concept",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "The use of AI for military targeting and force application.",
      "community": 16
    },
    {
      "id": "c_eu_ai_act",
      "label": "EU AI Act Approach",
      "tier": 3,
      "type": "concept",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "The European statutory model for AI oversight, invoked in U.S. policy argument as an example to follow or avoid.",
      "community": 20
    },
    {
      "id": "bis",
      "label": "U.S. BIS",
      "tier": 2,
      "type": "regulator",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Bureau of Industry and Security, the Commerce sub-agency that issues chip export rules. Distinct from the CHIPS/NIST side of Commerce already in this map.",
      "community": 5
    },
    {
      "id": "eu_ai_office",
      "label": "EU AI Office",
      "tier": 3,
      "type": "regulator",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Administers the EU AI Act. The statutory model invoked in U.S. policy argument as the thing to avoid.",
      "community": 13
    },
    {
      "id": "hw_h200",
      "label": "Nvidia H200",
      "tier": 1,
      "type": "hardware",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "The part at the centre of the 2026 China export settlement. Sales to approved Chinese buyers move on a case-by-case licence with a 25% tariff.",
      "community": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "hw_h20",
      "label": "Nvidia H20",
      "tier": 1,
      "type": "hardware",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "The earlier China-market part. China bought roughly 1M H20 against 450K Ascend in 2024. Superseded in the policy argument by the H200.",
      "community": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "hw_ascend_950pr",
      "label": "Huawei Ascend 950PR",
      "tier": 1,
      "type": "hardware",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Huawei's 2026 part, ~1 petaflop FP8, 128-144GB on-chip memory, with a CUDA-compatible stack to lower migration cost. 950DT follows in 2026, 960 in 2027, 970 in 2028.",
      "community": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "hw_ascend_910c",
      "label": "Huawei Ascend 910C",
      "tier": 1,
      "type": "hardware",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "The prior generation, still scaling: roughly 600,000 units planned for 2026. The 910B referenced in most commentary is older still.",
      "community": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "hw_mi325x",
      "label": "AMD MI325X",
      "tier": 1,
      "type": "hardware",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Named alongside the H200 in the same BIS licence-review change.",
      "community": 5
    },
    {
      "id": "pol_bis_h200",
      "label": "BIS Rule 2026-00789",
      "tier": 2,
      "type": "policy",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Federal Register rule of 15 Jan 2026 moving H200 and MI325X exports to China from presumption of denial to case-by-case review, subject to third-party U.S. testing and purchaser compliance screening. A loosening, not a tightening.",
      "community": 5
    },
    {
      "id": "pol_entity_list",
      "label": "U.S. Entity List",
      "tier": 2,
      "type": "policy",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "The export-licensing blacklist. Membership is the single hardest constraint on a Chinese firm's access to leading-edge tooling.",
      "community": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "pol_cac_labelling",
      "label": "China AIGC Labelling Measures",
      "tier": 3,
      "type": "policy",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Mandatory visible and technical labels on all AI-generated text, image, audio and video. In force since 1 September 2025.",
      "community": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "pol_cac_anthropomorphic",
      "label": "China Anthropomorphic AI Measures",
      "tier": 3,
      "type": "policy",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Interim Measures for the Management of Anthropomorphic AI Interactive Services, covering chatbots and AI companions. Published 10 April 2026, effective 15 July 2026.",
      "community": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "pol_eu_ai_act",
      "label": "EU AI Act",
      "tier": 3,
      "type": "policy",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "The statutory instrument. Distinct from the contested-concept node of the same name, which exists so statements can argue about the approach rather than the text.",
      "community": 13
    },
    {
      "id": "theatre_ukraine",
      "label": "Ukraine",
      "tier": 2,
      "type": "theatre",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "The live proving ground for AI-enabled warfare. Ukraine's 2026 defence and security budget was raised to a record UAH4.4tn, about $98bn, and its procurement agency contracted roughly $8bn of UAVs in H1 2026, double the prior year. Palantir has stated on the record that it has a large role in targeting acquisition.",
      "community": 2
    },
    {
      "id": "theatre_taiwan_strait",
      "label": "Taiwan Strait",
      "tier": 2,
      "type": "theatre",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "The scenario the entire supply chain is exposed to. TSMC's leading-edge capacity is concentrated here.",
      "community": 7
    },
    {
      "id": "dawg",
      "label": "Defense Autonomous Warfare Group",
      "tier": 3,
      "type": "company",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Absorbed the Replicator initiative in late 2025 when it was dissolved. $225.9m FY2026 line against a much broader autonomous-systems ecosystem. Replicator delivered hundreds rather than the thousands targeted.",
      "community": 2
    },
    {
      "id": "hw_vera_rubin",
      "label": "Nvidia Vera Rubin (NVL723)",
      "tier": 1,
      "type": "hardware",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Nvidia's next-generation rack-scale AI platform, pairing Rubin GPUs with Vera CPUs. SpaceX has committed to building exclusively on it, on the ground and in orbit.",
      "community": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "starmind_ai1",
      "label": "Starmind AI1 payload",
      "tier": 2,
      "type": "hardware",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Satellite compute payload co-designed by SpaceX and Nvidia, each unit carrying Rubin GPUs and Vera CPUs. Part of the Starmind constellation, for which SpaceX asked the FCC in January 2026 to authorise up to one million satellites. First AI1 test units are planned for early 2027, with mass production later that year if development holds.",
      "community": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "seg_us_commercial",
      "label": "US Commercial (segment)",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "segment",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Revenue segment, not a customer. Lets the graph carry a reported split so public claims about mix can be checked against filings.",
      "community": 2
    },
    {
      "id": "seg_us_government",
      "label": "US Government (segment)",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "segment",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Revenue segment, not a customer. Distinct from the specific agency nodes already in the map.",
      "community": 2
    },
    {
      "id": "c_unsupervised_autonomy",
      "label": "Unsupervised Autonomy",
      "tier": 3,
      "type": "concept",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Driving with no human supervision and no safety monitor. The thing a decade of timelines has been promised against. Tesla currently runs fewer than 40 unsupervised robotaxis, across Austin, Dallas and Houston.",
      "community": 21
    },
    {
      "id": "noetra",
      "label": "Noetra",
      "tier": 2,
      "type": "lab",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Japanese consortium company running the METI FRONTia programme to 2030, building a domestic multimodal foundation model for robotics and physical AI. Won the tender on 30 June 2026. Core members and investors are Sony Group, SoftBank, NEC and Honda, with 44 investing companies and organisations in total, led by manufacturing.",
      "community": 9
    },
    {
      "id": "frontia",
      "label": "FRONTia programme",
      "tier": 2,
      "type": "policy",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Foundation for Real-world Omni-Native Trustworthy Intelligence and Alignment. METI-driven national programme for trustworthy AI with a physical understanding of the world, running to 2030 with up to Y1tn of support over five years.",
      "community": 9
    },
    {
      "id": "nedo",
      "label": "NEDO",
      "tier": 3,
      "type": "investor",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization. The METI agency that runs the Multimodal Foundation Model Development Project for AI Robots and Physical AI, under which Noetra and AIST were selected.",
      "community": 9
    },
    {
      "id": "aist",
      "label": "AIST",
      "tier": 3,
      "type": "lab",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology. Selected alongside Noetra under the NEDO project; researches the advanced techniques the foundation models require.",
      "community": 9
    },
    {
      "id": "pfn",
      "label": "Preferred Networks",
      "tier": 3,
      "type": "lab",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Japanese AI company behind the PLaMo foundation models, with its own compute and AI-chip work. Invested in Noetra and is seconding PLaMo engineers to it.",
      "community": 9
    },
    {
      "id": "sony",
      "label": "Sony Group",
      "tier": 3,
      "type": "company",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Core member and investor in Noetra. Imaging sensors and robotics give it direct exposure to the physical-AI stack.",
      "community": 9
    },
    {
      "id": "nec",
      "label": "NEC",
      "tier": 3,
      "type": "company",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Core member and investor in Noetra.",
      "community": 9
    },
    {
      "id": "honda",
      "label": "Honda Motor",
      "tier": 3,
      "type": "company",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Core member and investor in Noetra. Robotics and mobility are the intended application layer for the foundation model.",
      "community": 9
    },
    {
      "id": "tower_semi",
      "label": "Tower Semiconductor",
      "tier": 1,
      "type": "foundry",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Specialty foundry. Expanding 300mm silicon photonics, silicon germanium and advanced packaging in Toyama and Niigata, the optical interconnect layer AI data centres depend on. Distinct from leading-edge logic.",
      "community": 9
    },
    {
      "id": "noetra_ai_factory",
      "label": "Noetra AI Factory",
      "tier": 2,
      "type": "facility",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "140MW Vera Rubin DSX facility for Japan's national physical-AI infrastructure. 13,750 Vera CPUs and 27,500 Rubin GPUs on a 260TB/s NVLink 6 fabric with Spectrum-X Ethernet and BlueField DPUs. Construction from April 2027, operations from June 2028.",
      "community": 9
    },
    {
      "id": "pol_jp_strategic_fields",
      "label": "Japan 17 Strategic Fields",
      "tier": 2,
      "type": "policy",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Takaichi government framework targeting over Y370tn of public and private investment across 17 strategic fields by FY2040, covering 62 named products and technologies. Semiconductors Y68tn, physical AI Y10.5tn.",
      "community": 2
    },
    {
      "id": "pol_jp_econ_security",
      "label": "Economic Security Promotion Act (JP)",
      "tier": 3,
      "type": "policy",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Japanese statute under which METI certifies stable supply assurance plans. The Tower Semiconductor award is the largest semiconductor-related subsidy granted under it, and carries multi-year production obligations.",
      "community": 9
    },
    {
      "id": "fcc",
      "label": "U.S. FCC",
      "tier": 3,
      "type": "regulator",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Federal Communications Commission. Licenses satellite constellations, which makes it the authorising body for orbital compute at scale.",
      "community": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "seg_oracle_rpo",
      "label": "Oracle contracted backlog",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "segment",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Remaining performance obligations: revenue under contract and not yet recognised. The clearest single measure of how much of the AI buildout is already committed rather than forecast.",
      "community": 8
    },
    {
      "id": "theatre_iran",
      "label": "Iran / Middle East 2026",
      "tier": 2,
      "type": "theatre",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Conflict opened 28 February 2026 with joint US and Israeli strikes. Operation Epic Fury ran to a ceasefire at 38 days, striking about 13,000 targets, more than 3,000 in the first week. Widely described as the first high-tempo AI-assisted targeting campaign.",
      "community": 7
    },
    {
      "id": "hormuz",
      "label": "Strait of Hormuz",
      "tier": 0,
      "type": "infra",
      "seed": false,
      "choke": true,
      "note": "Maritime chokepoint, effectively closed during the 2026 conflict. Carries the Gulf's sulfur exports and the helium that moves with Qatari LNG. A physical chokepoint sitting upstream of the technological ones this map already tracks.",
      "community": 7
    },
    {
      "id": "mat_helium",
      "label": "Helium (semiconductor grade)",
      "tier": 0,
      "type": "material",
      "seed": false,
      "choke": true,
      "note": "Non-substitutable in chip fabrication: carrier gas, purge gas for cleanroom atmospheres, and wafer coolant. Qatar supplies about a third of global supply, most of it produced alongside LNG at Ras Laffan and shipped through Hormuz.",
      "community": 7
    },
    {
      "id": "mat_sulfur",
      "label": "Sulfur / sulfuric acid",
      "tier": 0,
      "type": "material",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Gulf producers ship sulfur through Hormuz. Sulfuric acid derived from it is essential to leaching and refining the metals that feed semiconductors, batteries and magnets. China separately restricted sulfuric acid exports, compounding the shortage.",
      "community": 7
    },
    {
      "id": "ukraine_mod",
      "label": "Ukraine MoD",
      "tier": 3,
      "type": "regulator",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Ukraine's defence ministry and its Defence Procurement Agency. Since March 2026 it sets drone demand from battlefield data rather than human judgement, and runs the DOT-Chain Defense marketplace where units select systems directly.",
      "community": 2
    },
    {
      "id": "shield_ai",
      "label": "Shield AI",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "company",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Autonomy software for uncrewed aircraft. Part of the defence-autonomy tier the two conflicts are funding.",
      "community": 2
    },
    {
      "id": "hw_euv_low_na",
      "label": "Low-NA EUV (NXE)",
      "tier": 0,
      "type": "hardware",
      "seed": false,
      "choke": true,
      "note": "The workhorse of leading-edge production. About 65 systems expected to ship in 2026, with capacity rising 30% for 2027. ASML is the only maker.",
      "community": 7
    },
    {
      "id": "hw_euv_high_na",
      "label": "High-NA EUV (EXE)",
      "tier": 0,
      "type": "hardware",
      "seed": false,
      "choke": true,
      "note": "Next-generation lithography at roughly $400m per tool. ASML is the only maker. ASML sees no immediate need to accelerate output because Low-NA is still handling the current generation.",
      "community": 7
    },
    {
      "id": "hw_duv_immersion",
      "label": "DUV immersion (NXT)",
      "tier": 0,
      "type": "hardware",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Not export-banned to China in the way EUV is, and therefore the whole of ASML's China business. About 130 systems of capacity in 2026, rising 30% for 2027.",
      "community": 7
    },
    {
      "id": "pol_match_act",
      "label": "MATCH Act (proposed)",
      "tier": 2,
      "type": "policy",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "US legislation moving through Congress that would tighten restrictions specifically on ASML's DUV tools and related services destined for China. Proposed, not enacted.",
      "community": 7
    },
    {
      "id": "seg_asml_china",
      "label": "ASML China revenue",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "segment",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "The portion of ASML's business exposed to export-control policy. DUV only; EUV has never shipped to China.",
      "community": 7
    },
    {
      "id": "hub_trump_family",
      "label": "Trump Family Hub",
      "tier": 2,
      "type": "cluster",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "An analytical grouping, not an entity in the world. Aggregates the investment vehicles, personal holdings and administration actions of Donald Trump, Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump where they touch AI compute, defence autonomy, space, semiconductors and critical materials. Membership is a claim about association, not about control or intent.",
      "community": 10
    },
    {
      "id": "donald_trump",
      "label": "Donald Trump",
      "tier": 2,
      "type": "person",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "President. Personal securities holdings are reported through OGE disclosures; the Trump Organization states they are held in fully discretionary accounts independently managed by third parties, and disclosed amounts are ranges.",
      "community": 10
    },
    {
      "id": "donald_trump_jr",
      "label": "Donald Trump Jr.",
      "tier": 3,
      "type": "person",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Joined 1789 Capital as a partner within days of the November 2024 election.",
      "community": 10
    },
    {
      "id": "eric_trump",
      "label": "Eric Trump",
      "tier": 3,
      "type": "person",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Invests principally through American Ventures, a branch of the boutique investment bank Dominari Holdings.",
      "community": 10
    },
    {
      "id": "c1789_capital",
      "label": "1789 Capital",
      "tier": 3,
      "type": "investor",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Venture firm founded in Palm Beach in 2022 by Omeed Malik; Donald Trump Jr. joined as a partner in 2024. Reported at about $3.5bn. Invested in 11 of the 15 defence, robotics and AI companies identified in the Washington Post's July 2026 analysis.",
      "community": 2
    },
    {
      "id": "american_ventures",
      "label": "American Ventures",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "investor",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Eric Trump's principal dealmaking vehicle, a branch of Dominari Holdings.",
      "community": 10
    },
    {
      "id": "dominari",
      "label": "Dominari Holdings",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "bank",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Boutique investment bank; parent of American Ventures.",
      "community": 10
    },
    {
      "id": "vulcan_elements",
      "label": "Vulcan Elements",
      "tier": 3,
      "type": "material",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Rare-earth magnet maker. 1789 Capital invested in autumn 2025 at a valuation near $200m; the company subsequently received a $620m Defense Department loan commitment and has been valued near $2bn. The specific transaction drawing congressional attention.",
      "community": 2
    },
    {
      "id": "hadrian",
      "label": "Hadrian",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "company",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Automated precision manufacturing for defence and space.",
      "community": 2
    },
    {
      "id": "firehawk",
      "label": "Firehawk Aerospace",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "company",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Rocket propulsion.",
      "community": 2
    },
    {
      "id": "psiquantum",
      "label": "PsiQuantum",
      "tier": 3,
      "type": "quantum",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Photonic quantum computing.",
      "community": 2
    },
    {
      "id": "axiom_space",
      "label": "Axiom Space",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "company",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Commercial space stations and human spaceflight.",
      "community": 2
    },
    {
      "id": "unusual_machines",
      "label": "Unusual Machines",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "company",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Drone components and manufacture.",
      "community": 2
    },
    {
      "id": "pol_us_equity_intel",
      "label": "US Equity Stake in Intel",
      "tier": 2,
      "type": "policy",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "August 2025: the US government took 433.3m Intel shares at $20.47, about $8.9bn for a 9.9% holding, funded from unpaid CHIPS grants and Secure Enclave money, plus a five-year warrant for a further 5% contingent on Intel retaining a majority of the foundry business. The government has no voting or governance rights. An administration action, not a family holding.",
      "community": 7
    },
    {
      "id": "trump_family_trust",
      "label": "Trump family revocable trust",
      "tier": 3,
      "type": "investor",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "The vehicle holding the President's securities. A revocable trust with family trustees including Donald Trump Jr., not a qualified blind trust with an independent overseer. The President retains beneficial ownership of the individual securities; he did not divest. Every president since Lyndon Johnson in 1963 had used a blind trust, index funds and Treasuries, or liquidation.",
      "community": 10
    },
    {
      "id": "c_blind_trust",
      "label": "Blind Trust Convention",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "concept",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "The practice, followed by presidents since 1963, of placing assets beyond personal direction while in office.",
      "community": 18
    },
    {
      "id": "pol_state_equity",
      "label": "US Strategic Equity Programme",
      "tier": 1,
      "type": "policy",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "The practice of the federal government taking direct equity in strategic technology and minerals companies, seeded by an executive order in early 2025 directing planning for a US sovereign wealth fund. Reported to span roughly 30 companies. Holdings include Intel at about 10%, MP Materials at 15%, Trilogy Metals at 10%, and Lithium Americas at 5%.",
      "community": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "pol_china_revshare",
      "label": "China Licence Revenue Share",
      "tier": 1,
      "type": "policy",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Arrangement under which Nvidia and AMD pay the Commerce Department 15% of revenue from specified AI chip sales to China in exchange for export licences. Confirmed by the President on 11 August 2025, who said he had sought 20% and settled at 15%. Applies to Nvidia's H20 and AMD's MI308.",
      "community": 5
    },
    {
      "id": "mp_materials",
      "label": "MP Materials",
      "tier": 1,
      "type": "material",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Rare earth elements and permanent magnets. The US government holds about 15%.",
      "community": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "lithium_americas",
      "label": "Lithium Americas",
      "tier": 3,
      "type": "material",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Lithium. US government holds about 5%, plus about 5% of the Thacker Pass joint venture.",
      "community": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "trilogy_metals",
      "label": "Trilogy Metals",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "material",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Copper and critical minerals, Ambler project in Alaska. US government holds about 10%.",
      "community": 0
    },
    {
      "id": "lip_bu_tan",
      "label": "Lip-Bu Tan",
      "tier": 3,
      "type": "person",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "CEO of Intel.",
      "community": 7
    },
    {
      "id": "david_sacks",
      "label": "David Sacks",
      "tier": 2,
      "type": "person",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "White House AI and Crypto Czar from January 2025 until 26 March 2026, serving as a special government employee, a status capped at 130 days in any 12 months. Now co-chairs the President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology. Described the move as widening his remit from AI to a broader range of technology topics.",
      "community": 5
    },
    {
      "id": "michael_kratsios",
      "label": "Michael Kratsios",
      "tier": 3,
      "type": "person",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Senior White House technology adviser; co-chairs PCAST with David Sacks.",
      "community": 5
    },
    {
      "id": "pcast",
      "label": "PCAST",
      "tier": 2,
      "type": "regulator",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology. Advisory rather than regulatory, and not time-limited in the way a special-government-employee appointment is.",
      "community": 5
    },
    {
      "id": "pol_ai_action_plan",
      "label": "America's AI Action Plan",
      "tier": 2,
      "type": "policy",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Released 23 July 2025 with three accompanying executive orders. A roadmap directing the federal government to pursue AI dominance, principally by minimising regulation.",
      "community": 5
    },
    {
      "id": "pol_eo_preemption",
      "label": "EO: National AI Policy Framework",
      "tier": 2,
      "type": "policy",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Signed 11 December 2025. Seeks to forestall state AI regulation: directs the Attorney General to stand up an AI Litigation Task Force to challenge state laws, and directs Commerce to evaluate conflicting state laws and withhold non-deployment BEAD broadband funding from states that keep them.",
      "community": 5
    },
    {
      "id": "pol_eo_frontier_security",
      "label": "EO 14409: Advanced AI Innovation and Security",
      "tier": 2,
      "type": "policy",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Signed 2 June 2026. Three strands: hardening federal information systems, a VOLUNTARY framework for frontier developers to engage with government before deployment, and enforcement against criminal misuse. Voluntary is the operative word; it is an invitation to review, not a licensing regime.",
      "community": 5
    },
    {
      "id": "america_pac",
      "label": "America PAC",
      "tier": 3,
      "type": "investor",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Elon Musk's pro-Trump super PAC for the 2024 cycle. Received $193m from him through Election Day, within total 2024-cycle political spending of more than $290m.",
      "community": 10
    },
    {
      "id": "maga_inc",
      "label": "MAGA Inc",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "investor",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Pro-Trump super PAC. Timothy Mellon gave $151.5m through mid-October 2024, making him the cycle's largest single donor.",
      "community": 10
    },
    {
      "id": "preserve_america",
      "label": "Preserve America PAC",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "investor",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Pro-Trump super PAC. Miriam Adelson gave $100m; her total across Trump super PACs and committees was at least $105.8m.",
      "community": 10
    },
    {
      "id": "timothy_mellon",
      "label": "Timothy Mellon",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "person",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Largest single donor of the 2024 cycle by reported amount.",
      "community": 10
    },
    {
      "id": "miriam_adelson",
      "label": "Miriam Adelson",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "person",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Among the largest 2024-cycle donors.",
      "community": 10
    },
    {
      "id": "world_liberty",
      "label": "World Liberty Financial",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "company",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Trump family decentralised-finance venture launched in 2024. The 2025 disclosure, published 30 June 2026, reports over $500m of related income; token-sale proceeds are given between $236m and $520m depending on valuation method, plus about $65m from an equity sale.",
      "community": 10
    },
    {
      "id": "trump_memecoin",
      "label": "$TRUMP memecoin",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "company",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Reported at more than $635m in royalties in the 2025 disclosure, the single largest line in the crypto income.",
      "community": 10
    },
    {
      "id": "ibm_watsonx",
      "label": "IBM watsonx",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "platform",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "IBM's enterprise AI and data platform. Model-agnostic by design: serves IBM's own Granite family alongside third-party open models, Meta's Llama foremost among them. Sold as the governed, deployable layer rather than a frontier model, which is why IBM does not sit on the same axis as OpenAI or Anthropic in this graph.",
      "community": 4
    },
    {
      "id": "ibm_research",
      "label": "IBM Research",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "lab",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "IBM's research division. Trains and open-sources the Granite family, co-built the Prithvi geospatial models with NASA, and supplies the MoLFormer molecular model used in the Moderna collaboration.",
      "community": 4
    },
    {
      "id": "granite",
      "label": "IBM Granite",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "model",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "IBM's own foundation-model family, first announced 7 Sep 2023 and released under a permissive Apache 2.0 licence. Trained for enterprise work (code, language, document handling) rather than frontier benchmarks. Distributed on Hugging Face, Ollama, LM Studio, Replicate, NVIDIA NIM and Docker Hub as well as watsonx.ai.",
      "community": 4
    },
    {
      "id": "watsonx_governance",
      "label": "watsonx.governance",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "capability",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "The governance layer of watsonx: bias measurement, model and agent evaluation, audit documentation and regulatory reporting across the AI lifecycle. FedRAMP-authorised April 2026 as part of an 11-product authorisation.",
      "community": 4
    },
    {
      "id": "c_ai_governance",
      "label": "Enterprise AI Governance",
      "tier": 3,
      "type": "capability",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "The capability of evidencing what a model did and why: bias measurement, lineage, audit trail and regulator-facing reporting. Attached here only to vendors shipping it as a product surface. Absence of this edge is a statement about the product, not about whether a company has an ethics policy.",
      "community": 4
    },
    {
      "id": "pytorch",
      "label": "PyTorch",
      "tier": 3,
      "type": "framework",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "The dominant open-source deep-learning framework, governed by the PyTorch Foundation under the Linux Foundation.",
      "community": 4
    },
    {
      "id": "pytorch_foundation",
      "label": "PyTorch Foundation",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "standards",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Neutral governance body for PyTorch, hosted by the Linux Foundation. Premier members hold governing-board seats.",
      "community": 4
    },
    {
      "id": "ai_alliance",
      "label": "AI Alliance",
      "tier": 3,
      "type": "standards",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Launched 5 Dec 2023 by IBM and Meta with 50+ founding members including AMD, Intel, NASA, Hugging Face, Oracle, Red Hat, ServiceNow, Dell, CERN and the Linux Foundation. Framed by its founders and by press coverage as a counterweight to closed-model vendors. Distinct from the Open Secure AI Alliance (osaia), which is a separate 2026 body with a different membership and a security remit.",
      "community": 4
    },
    {
      "id": "qiskit_ml",
      "label": "Qiskit Machine Learning",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "framework",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "IBM's open-source quantum machine-learning library. Its TorchConnector wraps a quantum neural network as a standard torch.nn.Module, so quantum circuits appear as ordinary layers inside a PyTorch model and gradients flow through them via Qiskit's gradient framework.",
      "community": 4
    },
    {
      "id": "ibm_quantum_system_two",
      "label": "IBM Quantum System Two",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "quantum",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "IBM's modular quantum system, operational at Yorktown Heights with three 133-qubit Heron processors, cryogenic infrastructure, third-generation control electronics and classical runtime servers. Built to scale qubit count by linking chips rather than growing a single die. Its stated design purpose is quantum-centric supercomputing, not AI training.",
      "community": 4
    },
    {
      "id": "ibm_cloud",
      "label": "IBM Cloud",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "compute",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "IBM's cloud platform and the infrastructure watsonx runs on. Offers NVIDIA H100 instances for AI and HPC, AMD EPYC bare metal for general compute, and AMD Instinct MI300X accelerators for inference.",
      "community": 4
    },
    {
      "id": "hw_h100",
      "label": "Nvidia H100",
      "tier": 1,
      "type": "hardware",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Hopper-generation datacentre GPU. Generally available on IBM Cloud for LLM training and inference workloads.",
      "community": 4
    },
    {
      "id": "amd_epyc",
      "label": "AMD EPYC",
      "tier": 1,
      "type": "hardware",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "AMD server CPU line. IBM Cloud selected 2nd and 3rd generation EPYC for its bare-metal servers (EPYC 7763: 64 cores per socket, 128 per dual-socket server).",
      "community": 4
    },
    {
      "id": "openshift",
      "label": "Red Hat OpenShift",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "platform",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Red Hat's Kubernetes distribution and the container platform watsonx is installed on for on-premises and hybrid deployments, via Cloud Pak for Data.",
      "community": 4
    },
    {
      "id": "salesforce",
      "label": "Salesforce",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "company",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "CRM platform. Partnered with IBM since May 2024: Granite models available inside Einstein 1, zero-copy data integration with watsonx, and watsonx Orchestrate agents built for Agentforce. Agentforce's own reasoning engine is Salesforce's, not IBM's.",
      "community": 4
    },
    {
      "id": "sap",
      "label": "SAP",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "company",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Enterprise resource planning vendor. IBM Granite models are served through the generative AI hub in SAP AI Core on SAP Business Technology Platform.",
      "community": 4
    },
    {
      "id": "servicenow",
      "label": "ServiceNow",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "company",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Enterprise workflow platform and an AI Alliance founding member. Expanded its IBM collaboration on 11 Jun 2026 to combine watsonx.data and watsonx governance with the ServiceNow AI Platform and Workflow Data Fabric.",
      "community": 4
    },
    {
      "id": "adobe",
      "label": "Adobe",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "company",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Creative and marketing software vendor. Its Firefly generative models sit at the centre of a joint content-supply-chain offering delivered with IBM Consulting; watsonx contributes translation, localisation and data integration with Adobe Experience Platform.",
      "community": 4
    },
    {
      "id": "moderna",
      "label": "Moderna",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "health",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "mRNA biotechnology company. Multi-year agreement with IBM signed April 2023 covering IBM's MoLFormer molecular model for mRNA and lipid-nanoparticle design, plus membership of the IBM Quantum Network and Accelerator.",
      "community": 4
    },
    {
      "id": "prithvi",
      "label": "Prithvi",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "model",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Open-source geospatial foundation model built by IBM Research with NASA IMPACT on NASA's Harmonized Landsat and Sentinel-2 imagery. Released on Hugging Face 3 Aug 2023; a weather and climate variant followed in 2024. Used for disaster, biodiversity and land-use analysis.",
      "community": 4
    },
    {
      "id": "th_qml",
      "label": "Quantum Machine Learning",
      "tier": 5,
      "type": "theme",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Hybrid quantum-classical learning. Real as a research programme with working tooling; no demonstrated advantage over classical methods on production workloads. Kept in the graph as an investment area, not a capability.",
      "community": 4
    },
    {
      "id": "c_quantum_error_correction",
      "label": "Real-Time Quantum Error Decoding",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "concept",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "The classical-compute bottleneck in fault-tolerant quantum computing: syndrome data must be decoded faster than the qubits decohere. IBM's shipping answer is Relay-BP, an improved belief-propagation algorithm on an off-the-shelf AMD FPGA, decoding in under 480ns. Neural decoders exist in the literature, including on IBM processors, but are not what IBM's production stack runs.",
      "community": 4
    },
    {
      "id": "react",
      "label": "ReAct",
      "tier": 2,
      "type": "paradigm",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "The interleaved reason-act-observe loop published by Yao Shunyu and six co-authors in October 2022. Most agent frameworks in production implement some form of it. A published method, not a product and not a standard: nobody governs it.",
      "community": 11
    },
    {
      "id": "swe_bench",
      "label": "SWE-bench",
      "tier": 2,
      "type": "benchmark",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Real GitHub issues an agent must resolve, co-created by Yao at Princeton. The Verified split became the number every frontier lab quoted for coding agents. OpenAI retired it on 23 Feb 2026, saying gains increasingly reflected training exposure rather than capability. The benchmark itself is not withdrawn; one lab stopped reporting it.",
      "community": 11
    },
    {
      "id": "tau_bench",
      "label": "tau-bench",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "benchmark",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Agent evaluation on multi-turn tool use against a user simulator. Co-created by Yao, ICLR 2025.",
      "community": 11
    },
    {
      "id": "webshop",
      "label": "WebShop",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "benchmark",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "The 2022 web-navigation environment that started the interactive-agent benchmark line. Co-created by Yao at Princeton, NeurIPS 2022.",
      "community": 11
    },
    {
      "id": "webarena",
      "label": "WebArena",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "benchmark",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Web-agent benchmark from Carnegie Mellon, first authored by Shuyan Zhou with Graham Neubig among the senior authors. Recorded here because it is routinely misattributed to Yao Shunyu, who did not write it and does not list it.",
      "community": 12
    },
    {
      "id": "princeton_nlp",
      "label": "Princeton NLP",
      "tier": 3,
      "type": "lab",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "The group that produced WebShop, SWE-bench and the ReAct line of work.",
      "community": 11
    },
    {
      "id": "cmu",
      "label": "Carnegie Mellon University",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "lab",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Origin of WebArena and a large share of the web-agent evaluation literature.",
      "community": 12
    },
    {
      "id": "karthik_narasimhan",
      "label": "Karthik Narasimhan",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "person",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Princeton faculty. Advised Yao Shunyu's doctoral work and co-authored ReAct.",
      "community": 11
    },
    {
      "id": "langchain",
      "label": "LangChain",
      "tier": 3,
      "type": "framework",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "The most widely used agent framework. Ships a ReAct agent constructor that cites the original paper. How much of its adoption is attributable to ReAct is not something a source can attest to, so no such claim is recorded here.",
      "community": 11
    },
    {
      "id": "ggml",
      "label": "ggml / llama.cpp",
      "tier": 3,
      "type": "framework",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "The C/C++ inference runtime most local and on-device deployment of open-weight models runs on. Joined Hugging Face on 20 Feb 2026; both projects stay open-source and the team keeps technical autonomy.",
      "community": 4
    },
    {
      "id": "toyota",
      "label": "Toyota Motor",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "company",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Founding shareholder of Rapidus. Japan's largest manufacturer and the anchor customer the 2nm national foundry project is ultimately aimed at.",
      "community": 9
    },
    {
      "id": "ntt",
      "label": "NTT",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "company",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Founding shareholder of Rapidus. Also the IOWN optical-computing programme, which is the stated demand case for domestic advanced logic.",
      "community": 9
    },
    {
      "id": "denso",
      "label": "Denso",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "company",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Founding shareholder of Rapidus. Toyota-affiliated tier-one supplier; automotive silicon is the volume argument for a domestic 2nm line.",
      "community": 9
    },
    {
      "id": "kioxia",
      "label": "Kioxia",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "memory",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Founding shareholder of Rapidus and Japan's NAND champion, formerly Toshiba Memory.",
      "community": 9
    },
    {
      "id": "mufg",
      "label": "Mitsubishi UFJ Bank",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "bank",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Founding shareholder of Rapidus and the only financial institution among the eight.",
      "community": 9
    },
    {
      "id": "esmc",
      "label": "ESMC (Dresden)",
      "tier": 3,
      "type": "foundry",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "European Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Dresden. TSMC-operated joint venture with Bosch, Infineon and NXP. Planned 40,000 wafers per month on 28/22nm planar and 16/12nm FinFET, production targeted end-2027.",
      "community": 7
    },
    {
      "id": "infineon",
      "label": "Infineon Technologies",
      "tier": 3,
      "type": "chipmaker",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Germany's largest chipmaker, power and automotive semiconductors. ESMC shareholder.",
      "community": 7
    },
    {
      "id": "nxp",
      "label": "NXP Semiconductors",
      "tier": 3,
      "type": "chipmaker",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Dutch automotive and edge-processing chipmaker. ESMC shareholder.",
      "community": 7
    },
    {
      "id": "bosch",
      "label": "Robert Bosch",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "company",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "Automotive tier-one and ESMC shareholder. Operates its own Dresden fab.",
      "community": 7
    },
    {
      "id": "ase",
      "label": "ASE Technology",
      "tier": 3,
      "type": "equipment",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "The largest outsourced assembly and test provider. Takes CoWoS front-end work TSMC cannot absorb in house, which makes advanced packaging capacity a shared constraint rather than one company's.",
      "community": 7
    },
    {
      "id": "amkor",
      "label": "Amkor Technology",
      "tier": 4,
      "type": "equipment",
      "seed": false,
      "note": "US-headquartered OSAT and the second destination for TSMC's outsourced CoWoS steps.",
      "community": 7
    }
  ],
  "edges": [
    {
      "s": "trumpf",
      "t": "asml",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "supplies lasers to",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Sole EUV laser source",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://hwbusters.com/news/the-quiet-monopoly-powering-every-advanced-chip-in-the-world/",
      "note": "Long-standing structural dependency with no published commencement date. valid_from is null because none was ever established, not because the research is outstanding.",
      "valid_from": null,
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "zeiss",
      "t": "asml",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "supplies optics to",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Sole EUV optics",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://hwbusters.com/news/the-quiet-monopoly-powering-every-advanced-chip-in-the-world/",
      "note": "Long-standing structural dependency with no published commencement date. valid_from is null because none was ever established, not because the research is outstanding.",
      "valid_from": null,
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "asml",
      "t": "tsmc",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "is the sole EUV supplier to",
      "mag": 100,
      "magU": "100% of EUV · ~$400m/machine",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.techtimes.com/articles/318252/20260611/even-tsmc-says-asmls-newest-machine-too-expensive-400-million-chip-bottleneck.htm",
      "note": "THE CHOKEPOINT. ASML is the only company on earth making the lithography TSMC needs for leading-edge chips. The single point of failure the seed set can't reveal — a Dutch firm behind a Taiwanese fab.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "tsmc",
      "t": "nvidia",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "fabricates silicon for",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Fabless — 100% outsourced",
      "asof": "2025-01",
      "disc": "filed",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001045810/000104581025000023/nvda-20250126.htm",
      "note": "Nvidia owns no fabs; its leading-edge silicon is entirely TSMC's. Stress traverses ASML → TSMC → Nvidia → the whole cohort.",
      "valid_from": "2025-01",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "nvidia",
      "t": "spacex",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "supplies ~555k GPUs to",
      "mag": 18000000000,
      "magU": "~$18bn · 555k GPUs",
      "asof": "2026-05",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intelligence/musks-spacex-has-rented-out-access-to-its-supercomputers-220-000-nvidia-gpus-and-300-megawatts-of-ai-compute-power-to-rival-anthropic-musk-says-no-one-set-off-my-evil-detector-antrhropic-also-interested-in-orbital-data-centers",
      "note": "One of Nvidia's largest single-customer concentrations, powering the Colossus data centres.",
      "valid_from": "2026-05",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "spacex",
      "t": "colossus1",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "operates",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "~220k GPUs · 300MW",
      "asof": "2026-05",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.anthropic.com/news/higher-limits-spacex",
      "note": "Came with the xAI merger; leased in full to Anthropic.",
      "valid_from": "2026-05",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "spacex",
      "t": "colossus2",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "operates",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Nvidia GB300",
      "asof": "2026-06",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-confirms-third-massive-compute-deal-colossus-memphis/",
      "note": "Newer facility; xAI training plus Reflection capacity.",
      "valid_from": "2026-06",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "anthropic",
      "t": "colossus1",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "rents (in full)",
      "mag": 45000000000,
      "magU": "$1.25bn/mo · ~$45bn to 2029",
      "asof": "2026-05",
      "disc": "filed",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.anthropic.com/news/higher-limits-spacex",
      "note": "RENTING FROM THE RIVAL: Anthropic rents the entire Colossus 1 — a facility xAI (now SpaceX) built for Grok.",
      "valid_from": "2026-05",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "alphabet",
      "t": "spacex",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "buys compute from",
      "mag": 32000000000,
      "magU": "$920m/mo · ~$32bn",
      "asof": "2026-06",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://techcrunch.com/2026/06/05/google-will-pay-spacex-920m-per-month-for-compute/",
      "note": "THE CROSS-CURRENT: Google funds Anthropic, competes with it, and rents compute from SpaceX — investor in a rival it also rents from.",
      "valid_from": "2026-06",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "reflection",
      "t": "spacex",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "buys compute from",
      "mag": 6300000000,
      "magU": "$150m/mo · ~$6.3bn",
      "asof": "2026-06",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-confirms-third-massive-compute-deal-colossus-memphis/",
      "note": "Colossus 2 customer.",
      "valid_from": "2026-06",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "cursor",
      "t": "spacex",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "buys compute from",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Colossus customer",
      "asof": "2026-05",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/19/spacex-picks-goldman-sachs-to-lead-record-breaking-ipo-sources-say.html",
      "note": "SpaceX outside-client committed compute revenue reported >$80bn through 2029.",
      "valid_from": "2026-05",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "openai",
      "t": "oracle",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "buys compute from",
      "mag": 300000000000,
      "magU": "$300bn / 5yr",
      "asof": "2025-09",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/15/a-guide-to-1-trillion-worth-of-ai-deals-between-openai-nvidia.html",
      "note": "$60bn/yr for five years — the concrete core of the Stargate build-out.",
      "valid_from": "2025-09",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "amazon",
      "t": "openai",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "sells compute to",
      "mag": 38000000000,
      "magU": "$38bn / 7yr (AWS)",
      "asof": "2025-11",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://tomtunguz.com/openai-hardware-spending-2025-2035/",
      "note": "Amazon funds Anthropic AND sells compute to its rival OpenAI — a cross-book the graph makes visible.",
      "valid_from": "2025-11",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "amd",
      "t": "openai",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "supplies silicon to",
      "mag": 90000000000,
      "magU": "~$90bn · 6GW",
      "asof": "2025-10",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://tomtunguz.com/openai-hardware-spending-2025-2035/",
      "note": "Cumulative hardware revenue potential per AMD's own announcement.",
      "valid_from": "2025-10",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "broadcom",
      "t": "openai",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "designs custom chips for",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Undisclosed",
      "asof": "2025-10",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/15/a-guide-to-1-trillion-worth-of-ai-deals-between-openai-nvidia.html",
      "note": "Custom accelerators; deal value not disclosed by either party.",
      "valid_from": "2025-10",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "openai",
      "t": "coreweave",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "buys compute from",
      "mag": 22000000000,
      "magU": "~$22bn cloud",
      "asof": "2025-03",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CoreWeave",
      "note": "Five-year cloud contract plus a reported ~$350m equity stake.",
      "valid_from": "2025-03",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "oracle",
      "t": "stargate",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "builds & operates",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Lead operator",
      "asof": "2026-02",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://intuitionlabs.ai/articles/openai-stargate-datacenter-details",
      "note": "~$500bn / ~10GW build-out.",
      "valid_from": "2026-02",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "crusoe",
      "t": "stargate",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "builds site for",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Abilene flagship",
      "asof": "2026-02",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://intuitionlabs.ai/articles/openai-stargate-datacenter-details",
      "note": "Builder of the operational Abilene flagship.",
      "valid_from": "2026-02",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "openai",
      "t": "stargate",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "anchors",
      "mag": 500000000000,
      "magU": "~$500bn JV",
      "asof": "2026-02",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://intuitionlabs.ai/articles/openai-stargate-datacenter-details",
      "note": "OpenAI + Oracle + SoftBank + MGX.",
      "valid_from": "2026-02",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "nvidia",
      "t": "anthropic",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "invests up to $10bn in",
      "mag": 10000000000,
      "magU": "Up to $10bn",
      "asof": "2025-11",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/18/anthropic-ai-azure-microsoft-nvidia.html",
      "note": "NVIDIA IRONY: equity in a company it also supplies with GPUs — every GPU sale lifts its own stake. Anthropic committed $30bn to Azure.",
      "valid_from": "2025-11",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "microsoft",
      "t": "anthropic",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "invests up to $5bn in",
      "mag": 5000000000,
      "magU": "Up to $5bn",
      "asof": "2025-11",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://blogs.microsoft.com/blog/2025/11/18/microsoft-nvidia-and-anthropic-announce-strategic-partnerships",
      "note": "Microsoft invests $5B; Anthropic commits $30B to Azure - a rival's capital returning as cloud revenue.",
      "valid_from": "2025-11",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "amazon",
      "t": "anthropic",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "invests ~$8bn in",
      "mag": 8000000000,
      "magU": "$8B + up to $25B ($33B potential)",
      "asof": "2024-11",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.reuters.com/technology/anthropic-spend-over-100-billion-amazons-cloud-technology-2026-04-20",
      "note": "4-competitor cap table: Anthropic then commits ~$100B to AWS (Trainium) - capital loops back to the investor.",
      "valid_from": "2024-11",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "alphabet",
      "t": "anthropic",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "holds equity in",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "$3B + up to $40B (~14% stake)",
      "asof": "2026-05",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/24/google-to-invest-up-to-40-billion-in-anthropic-as-search-giant-spreads-its-ai-bets.html",
      "note": "Google funds Anthropic (up to $40B) while competing with it and renting SpaceX compute.",
      "valid_from": "2026-05",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "microsoft",
      "t": "openai",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "holds ~27% of",
      "mag": 135000000000,
      "magU": "~27% · $13B total",
      "asof": "2025-10",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.forbes.com/sites/aliciapark/2026/04/27/openai-and-microsoft-end-exclusive-partnership-and-revenue-sharing",
      "note": "STATE CHANGE: exclusive IP license ENDED Apr 2026 - now non-exclusive through 2032, freeing OpenAI's Oracle/Stargate deals and freeing Microsoft to back Anthropic.",
      "valid_from": "2025-10",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "nvidia",
      "t": "openai",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "invests $30bn in (part of $110bn round)",
      "mag": 30000000000,
      "magU": "$30bn - within $110bn round at $730bn pre-money",
      "asof": "2026-02",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/27/open-ai-funding-round-amazon.html",
      "note": "Scaled back from the earlier up-to-$100bn LOI. Confirmed $30bn as part of OpenAI's $110bn round (Amazon $50bn + Nvidia $30bn + SoftBank $30bn). Partnership also carries 3GW inference + 2GW training on Vera Rubin.",
      "valid_from": "2026-02",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "softbank",
      "t": "openai",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "invests $30bn in (part of $110bn round)",
      "mag": 30000000000,
      "magU": "$30bn - within $110bn round at $730bn pre-money",
      "asof": "2026-02",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/27/open-ai-funding-round-amazon.html",
      "note": "Corrected: earlier 'leads ~$300bn round' conflated round-lead role with size. Stargate's $500bn commitment is tracked separately.",
      "valid_from": "2026-02",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "nvidia",
      "t": "coreweave",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "holds ~13% of",
      "mag": 2000000000,
      "magU": "~13% · ~$2bn",
      "asof": "2026-01",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-invests-2-billion-coreweave-130850099.html",
      "note": "Nvidia is CoreWeave's second-largest shareholder — and its GPU customer.",
      "valid_from": "2026-01",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "openai",
      "t": "coreweave",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "holds equity in",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "~$350m stake",
      "asof": "2025-03",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CoreWeave",
      "note": "Equity via private placement alongside the cloud contract.",
      "valid_from": "2025-03",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "mgx",
      "t": "stargate",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "funds",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Sovereign partner",
      "asof": "2026-02",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://intuitionlabs.ai/articles/openai-stargate-datacenter-details",
      "note": "Abu Dhabi sovereign capital vehicle.",
      "valid_from": "2026-02",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "softbank",
      "t": "stargate",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "co-leads ($500B commitment)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Capital partner",
      "asof": "2026-02",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://intuitionlabs.ai/articles/openai-stargate-datacenter-details",
      "note": "One of the anchor capital partners.",
      "valid_from": "2026-02",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "goldman",
      "t": "spacex",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "arranged $20bn debt for",
      "mag": 20000000000,
      "magU": "~$20bn bridge",
      "asof": "2026-03",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://octus.com/resources/articles/spacex-lines-up-20b-goldman-sachs-led-bridge-loan-to-refinance-17-5b-x-xai-debt-ahead-of-planned-ipo/",
      "note": "Refinanced ~$17.5bn X/xAI junk debt (12.5% → ~4.58%). First $20bn of IPO proceeds repay it — bankers repaid before public money reaches the business.",
      "valid_from": "2026-03",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "foundersfund",
      "t": "spacex",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "holds equity in",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Private",
      "asof": "2025",
      "disc": "private",
      "conf": "estimate",
      "url": "https://techcrunch.com/2025/01/01/internal-spacex-documents-show-the-sweet-stock-deals-offered-to-investors-like-a16z-gigafund/",
      "note": "Long-standing holder. Private company — stake not disclosure-required.",
      "valid_from": "2025",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "a16z",
      "t": "spacex",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "holds equity in",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Private",
      "asof": "2025",
      "disc": "private",
      "conf": "estimate",
      "url": "https://techcrunch.com/2025/01/01/internal-spacex-documents-show-the-sweet-stock-deals-offered-to-investors-like-a16z-gigafund/",
      "note": "Private company — stake not disclosure-required.",
      "valid_from": "2025",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "vanguard",
      "t": "meta",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "is a top-3 holder of",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Top-3 holder (13F)",
      "asof": "2026-03",
      "disc": "filed",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001326801&type=13F",
      "note": "Common ownership across the listed names — not coordination.",
      "valid_from": "2026-03",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "blackrock",
      "t": "nvidia",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "is a top-3 holder of",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Top-3 holder (13F)",
      "asof": "2026-03",
      "disc": "filed",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001045810&type=13F",
      "note": "Top passive holder across the seasoned listed names.",
      "valid_from": "2026-03",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "vanguard",
      "t": "alphabet",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "is a top-3 holder of",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Top-3 holder (13F)",
      "asof": "2026-03",
      "disc": "filed",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001652044&type=13F",
      "note": "Common ownership across the listed names.",
      "valid_from": "2026-03",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "goldman",
      "t": "spacex",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "lead-underwrote the IPO of",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Lead-left bookrunner",
      "asof": "2026-06",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/19/spacex-picks-goldman-sachs-to-lead-record-breaking-ipo-sources-say.html",
      "note": "Record SPCX IPO, 12 Jun 2026.",
      "valid_from": "2026-06",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "morganstanley",
      "t": "spacex",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "co-underwrote the IPO of",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Joint bookrunner",
      "asof": "2026-06",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/19/spacex-picks-goldman-sachs-to-lead-record-breaking-ipo-sources-say.html",
      "note": "SPCX IPO.",
      "valid_from": "2026-06",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "bofa",
      "t": "spacex",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "co-underwrote the IPO of",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Joint bookrunner",
      "asof": "2026-06",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/19/spacex-picks-goldman-sachs-to-lead-record-breaking-ipo-sources-say.html",
      "note": "SPCX IPO.",
      "valid_from": "2026-06",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "citi",
      "t": "spacex",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "co-underwrote the IPO of",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Joint bookrunner",
      "asof": "2026-06",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/19/spacex-picks-goldman-sachs-to-lead-record-breaking-ipo-sources-say.html",
      "note": "SPCX IPO.",
      "valid_from": "2026-06",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "jpmorgan",
      "t": "spacex",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "co-underwrote the IPO of",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Joint bookrunner",
      "asof": "2026-06",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/19/spacex-picks-goldman-sachs-to-lead-record-breaking-ipo-sources-say.html",
      "note": "SPCX IPO.",
      "valid_from": "2026-06",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "spacex",
      "t": "xai",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "absorbed (all-stock, Feb 2026)",
      "mag": 1250000000000,
      "magU": "~$1.25tn combined",
      "asof": "2026-02",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/03/musk-xai-spacex-biggest-merger-ever.html",
      "note": "xAI merged into SpaceX Feb 2026 — which is why an 'AI customer' graph runs through a rocket company.",
      "valid_from": "2026-02",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "musk",
      "t": "spacex",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "controls (~82% vote)",
      "mag": 82,
      "magU": "~82% voting",
      "asof": "2026-06",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/spacexs-ipo-ceo-elon-musk-083500287.html",
      "note": "~42% equity, ~82% voting power. Also CEO of Tesla; controls xAI via SpaceX.",
      "valid_from": "2026-06",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "musk",
      "t": "tesla",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "is CEO of",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "CEO interlock",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "filed",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001318605&type=DEF+14A",
      "note": "The same person controls SpaceX, xAI and Tesla — a personal interlock spanning the graph.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "zuckerberg",
      "t": "meta",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "controls",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Super-voting control",
      "asof": "2024-04",
      "disc": "filed",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001326801&type=DEF+14A",
      "note": "Voting control via Class B super-voting shares.",
      "valid_from": "2024-04",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "anthropic",
      "t": "microsoft",
      "g": "loop",
      "pred": "recirculates capital with",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Loop 1",
      "asof": "2025-11",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.anthropic.com/news/microsoft-nvidia-anthropic-announce-strategic-partnerships",
      "note": "LOOP 1 — Microsoft + Nvidia invest up to $15bn in Anthropic; Anthropic commits $30bn to Azure (Nvidia GPUs); both earn compute revenue to reinvest.",
      "valid_from": "2025-11",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "openai",
      "t": "microsoft",
      "g": "loop",
      "pred": "recirculates capital with",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Loop 2",
      "asof": "2025-10",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://blogs.microsoft.com/blog/2025/10/28/the-next-chapter-of-the-microsoft-openai-partnership/",
      "note": "LOOP 2 — Microsoft invests >$13bn in OpenAI; OpenAI runs on Azure with $250bn incremental commitment; Microsoft and Nvidia earn revenue and reinvest.",
      "valid_from": "2025-10",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "spacex",
      "t": "nvidia",
      "g": "loop",
      "pred": "recirculates capital with",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Loop 3",
      "asof": "2026-05",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intelligence/musks-spacex-has-rented-out-access-to-its-supercomputers-220-000-nvidia-gpus-and-300-megawatts-of-ai-compute-power-to-rival-anthropic-musk-says-no-one-set-off-my-evil-detector-antrhropic-also-interested-in-orbital-data-centers",
      "note": "LOOP 3 — SpaceX buys ~$18bn of Nvidia GPUs; leases Colossus generating >$80bn committed revenue; revenue funds more infrastructure; Nvidia reinvests.",
      "valid_from": "2026-05",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "nvidia",
      "t": "oracle",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "supplies GB200 GPUs to",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "GB200 racks",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://intuitionlabs.ai/articles/oracle-openai-300b-deal-analysis",
      "note": "Nvidia sells the silicon Oracle deploys for OpenAI's Stargate — the sales half of Nvidia's dual role (it also holds equity across the cohort).",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "nvidia",
      "t": "coreweave",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "supplies GPUs to",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Primary GPU supplier",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-invests-2-billion-coreweave-130850099.html",
      "note": "Nvidia both FUNDS CoreWeave (~13% stake) AND is its main chip supplier — funder and vendor to the same company, visible on one node.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "nvidia",
      "t": "synopsys",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "uses EDA tools to design",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "license fee (undisclosed)",
      "asof": "2025",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.synopsys.com/ai/ai-powered-eda.html",
      "note": "Every Nvidia GPU designed with Synopsys or Cadence EDA software.",
      "valid_from": "2025",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "nvidia",
      "t": "cadence",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "uses EDA tools to design",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "license fee (undisclosed)",
      "asof": "2025",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.linkedin.com/posts/markdhirsch_eda-semiconductors-synopsys-activity-7468028745182814208-Qhp-",
      "note": "Synopsys + Cadence = 96% EDA market share. Every AI chip depends on them.",
      "valid_from": "2025",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "amd",
      "t": "synopsys",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "uses EDA tools to design",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "license fee (undisclosed)",
      "asof": "2026-07",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://news.synopsys.com/2026-07-27-Synopsys-Advances-Agentic-AI-Chip-Design-with-AMD-and-Microsoft",
      "note": "Synopsys names AMD as using its agentic EDA workflows, 27 Jul 2026. That release evidences the relationship, not its commencement, which was never published.",
      "valid_from": null,
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-08"
    },
    {
      "s": "huawei",
      "t": "synopsys",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "cut off from EDA tools (US sanctions)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "blocked",
      "asof": "2025",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.asiafinancial.com/new-curbs-force-chip-design-software-firm-to-halt-work-in-china",
      "note": "New US curbs forced Synopsys and Cadence to halt work in China — critical pressure on Huawei chip design.",
      "valid_from": "2025",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "nvidia",
      "t": "sk_hynix",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "sources primary HBM3E from",
      "mag": 100000000000.0,
      "magU": "$100bn HBM market by 2028",
      "asof": "2025",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://forcedalpha.com/news/korea-hbm-supply-chain-dependency",
      "note": "SK Hynix >50% of HBM3E. Most acute supply chain chokepoint in AI. $43T downstream exposure.",
      "valid_from": "2025",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "nvidia",
      "t": "samsung",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "sources secondary HBM from",
      "mag": 100000000000.0,
      "magU": "$100bn HBM market by 2028",
      "asof": "2025",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://semiconductorx.com/chip-type-hbm.html",
      "note": "Only 3 companies make HBM globally: SK Hynix, Samsung, Micron.",
      "valid_from": "2025",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "nvidia",
      "t": "micron",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "sources tertiary HBM from",
      "mag": 100000000000.0,
      "magU": "$100bn HBM market by 2028",
      "asof": "2025",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://medium.com/@ainewblog007/the-ai-memory-war-explained-why-hbm-gddr-and-dram-are-the-next-semiconductor-bottleneck-powering-024371f7abff",
      "note": "Memory bottleneck expected to continue through 2027.",
      "valid_from": "2025",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "sk_hynix",
      "t": "tsmc",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "has HBM packaged by",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "packaging bottleneck",
      "asof": "2025",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.linkedin.com/posts/markdhirsch_hbm-ai-semiconductors-activity-7462630687024726016-uQ3u",
      "note": "HBM supply chain: Korea makes memory, Taiwan packages it, Japan enables it.",
      "valid_from": "2025",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "huawei",
      "t": "smic",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "has Ascend chips fabricated by",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "~600K chips (2026 plan)",
      "asof": "2025",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.huaweicentral.com/smic-expected-to-produce-30-huawei-ascend-910b-ai-chips-by-end-of-2025",
      "note": "SMIC expected to produce 30% of Ascend 910B by end 2025. 600K 910C chips planned for 2026.",
      "valid_from": "2025",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "cn_gov_fund",
      "t": "smic",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "provides state subsidies to",
      "mag": 8200000000.0,
      "magU": "$8.2bn National AI Fund",
      "asof": "2025",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PEA4012-1.html",
      "note": "China's full-stack industrial policy for AI — from chips to models to applications.",
      "valid_from": "2025",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "huawei",
      "t": "nvidia",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "China bought 1M Nvidia H20 chips vs 450K Ascend (2024)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "competitive demand",
      "asof": "2024",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.rand.org/pubs/commentary/2025/08/leashing-chinese-ai-needs-smart-chip-controls.html",
      "note": "Even Huawei's domestic chip can't fully displace demand for downgraded Nvidia H20.",
      "valid_from": "2024",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "rapidus",
      "t": "ibm",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "2nm development partnership with",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "¥2.35T total govt support",
      "asof": "2025",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://research.ibm.com/blog/rapidus-ibm-move-closer-to-scaling-out-2-nm-chip-production",
      "note": "Rapidus achieved 2nm GAA wafer production 3 months after EUV installation.",
      "valid_from": "2025",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "japan_meti",
      "t": "rapidus",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "approved $4B funding for",
      "mag": 4000000000.0,
      "magU": "$4bn",
      "asof": "2025",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://theaiworld.org/news/japan-backs-rapidus-with-4b-to-lead-2nm-chip-race",
      "note": "Consortium includes Sony and Toyota.",
      "valid_from": "2025",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "broadcom",
      "t": "rapidus",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "receives 2nm chip samples from",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "samples Jun 2025",
      "asof": "2025",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://tspasemiconductor.substack.com/p/rapidus-2nm-whats-next-for-japan",
      "note": "Broadcom most promising international partner for Rapidus.",
      "valid_from": "2025",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "nvidia",
      "t": "arm",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "Grace CPU licenses Arm Neoverse from",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "architecture license",
      "asof": "2025",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.arm.com",
      "note": "Virtually every mobile chip and increasingly AI inference runs on Arm.",
      "valid_from": "2025",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "masayoshi_son",
      "t": "arm",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "SoftBank owns 90% of Arm",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "90% stake",
      "asof": "2025",
      "disc": "filed",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://group.softbank/en/ir/financials/annual_reports/2025/message/arm",
      "note": "SoftBank launching own AI chips using Arm architecture.",
      "valid_from": "2025",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "qualcomm",
      "t": "arm",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "licenses Arm architecture for AI PC chips",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "architecture license",
      "asof": "2025-09",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://investor.qualcomm.com/news-events/press-releases/news-details/2025/Qualcomm-Achieves-Complete-Victory-Over-Arm-in-Litigation-Challenging-Licensing-Agreements/default.aspx",
      "note": "Qualcomm's Architecture License Agreement was confirmed to cover the Nuvia-derived Oryon cores by a Delaware court, final judgment September 2025. The interval is scoped to the AI-PC parts from the 2024 Snapdragon X launch; the ALA predates them by many years.",
      "valid_from": "2024",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-08"
    },
    {
      "s": "nvidia",
      "t": "mellanox",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "acquired for $6.9B (2020)",
      "mag": 6900000000.0,
      "magU": "$6.9bn acquisition",
      "asof": "2020",
      "disc": "filed",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://introl.com/blog/infiniband-vs-ethernet-gpu-clusters-800g-architecture",
      "note": "InfiniBand default fabric for AI training. 15% better performance but 2.3x cost.",
      "valid_from": "2020",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "arista",
      "t": "nvidia",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "challenges InfiniBand with UEC Ethernet at",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "competitive threat",
      "asof": "2025",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.arista.com/assets/data/pdf/Whitepapers/AI-Network-WP.pdf",
      "note": "UEC 1.0 spec released June 2025. Arista building lossless Ethernet for AI.",
      "valid_from": "2025",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "openai",
      "t": "microsoft_cloud",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "primary cloud/compute provider for",
      "mag": 13000000000.0,
      "magU": "$13bn+ committed",
      "asof": "2025",
      "disc": "filed",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://openai.com/index/announcing-the-stargate-project",
      "note": "Azure hosts OpenAI's workloads. Microsoft building $80B+ in AI data centers.",
      "valid_from": "2025",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "anthropic",
      "t": "aws",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "primary cloud provider for",
      "mag": 8000000000.0,
      "magU": "$8bn+ Amazon investment",
      "asof": "2025",
      "disc": "filed",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-ai-bet-anthropic-soars-61-billion-valuation-2026-2",
      "note": "Amazon's Anthropic stake boosted quarterly profits by $9.5B. Total commitment up to $25B.",
      "valid_from": "2025",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "xai",
      "t": "mellanox",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "Colossus uses 200K+ GPUs with InfiniBand networking",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "200K+ GPUs",
      "asof": "2025",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://x.ai/colossus",
      "note": "Colossus built in 122 days. World's largest AI training supercomputer.",
      "valid_from": "2025",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "deepseek",
      "t": "cn_gov_fund",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "secretly backed by Chinese state funds",
      "mag": 7400000000.0,
      "magU": "$7.4bn at $50bn valuation",
      "asof": "2025",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://michaelparekh.substack.com/p/ai-chinas-deepseek-raises-74-billion",
      "note": "First funding round. Unusual deal structure. State + Tencent bankrolling.",
      "valid_from": "2025",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "deepseek",
      "t": "tencent_holding",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "secretly invested in",
      "mag": 7400000000.0,
      "magU": "part of $7.4bn round",
      "asof": "2025",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5DTwp1Ey7xM",
      "note": "WeChat parent quietly backing the lab that shocked the world.",
      "valid_from": "2025",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "alibaba",
      "t": "alibaba_holding",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "develops Qwen models via",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "corporate subsidiary",
      "asof": "2025",
      "disc": "filed",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://qwen.ai",
      "note": "Qwen replaced Llama as most downloaded model family on Hugging Face (Sep 2025).",
      "valid_from": "2025",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "alibaba_holding",
      "t": "zhipu",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "backs",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "$12bn valuation",
      "asof": "2025",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://explainx.ai/blog/top-chinese-ai-companies-startups-guide-2026",
      "note": "China's 'Six Tigers' AI startups all have $1B+ valuations and big tech backing.",
      "valid_from": "2025",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "tencent",
      "t": "tencent_holding",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "develops Hunyuan AI model",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "corporate subsidiary",
      "asof": "2025",
      "disc": "filed",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": null,
      "note": "WeChat-integrated AI. Invests in numerous Chinese AI startups.",
      "valid_from": "2025",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "bytedance",
      "t": "nvidia",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "bought $7B+ of GPUs from",
      "mag": 7000000000.0,
      "magU": "$7bn+ chip orders",
      "asof": "2025",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": null,
      "note": "TikTok parent is one of Nvidia's largest customers while competing in AI.",
      "valid_from": "2025",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "anthropic",
      "t": "amazon",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "received $8B+ investment from (commitment up to $25B)",
      "mag": 25000000000.0,
      "magU": "up to $25bn",
      "asof": "2025",
      "disc": "filed",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.linkedin.com/posts/lunguflorin_amazons-ai-jackpot-its-8-billion-anthropic-activity-7467420082302803968-Gg6",
      "note": "Amazon's Anthropic stake boosted quarterly profits by $9.5B.",
      "valid_from": "2025",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "anthropic",
      "t": "sequoia",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "Series H co-led by Sequoia, Altimeter, Dragoneer, Greenoaks in",
      "mag": 65000000000.0,
      "magU": "$65bn Series H at ~$965bn post-money",
      "asof": "2026-05",
      "disc": "filed",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.anthropic.com/news/series-h",
      "note": "Series H (May 2026) at ~$965bn post-money, nearing $1tn ahead of IPO. Prior: Series F $13bn at $183bn (Sep 2025), Series G $30bn at $380bn (Feb 2026). Plans to spend $100B+ on compute.",
      "valid_from": "2026-05",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "anthropic",
      "t": "altimeter",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "co-led $65B Series H",
      "mag": 65000000000.0,
      "magU": "$65bn Series H",
      "asof": "2025",
      "disc": "filed",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.anthropic.com/news/series-h",
      "note": "Led by Altimeter Capital.",
      "valid_from": "2025",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "xai",
      "t": "a16z",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "xAI raised $10B in debt and equity (Jul 2025)",
      "mag": 10000000000.0,
      "magU": "$10bn raise",
      "asof": "2025-07",
      "disc": "filed",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/01/elon-musk-xai-raises-10-billion-in-debt-and-equity.html",
      "note": "For Colossus buildout and Grok development.",
      "valid_from": "2025-07",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "stargate",
      "t": "softbank",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "Stargate co-led by SoftBank ($500B commitment)",
      "mag": 500000000000.0,
      "magU": "$500bn over 4 years",
      "asof": "2025",
      "disc": "filed",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://openai.com/index/announcing-the-stargate-project",
      "note": "Struggling to get off ground 6 months after White House unveiling.",
      "valid_from": "2025",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "stargate",
      "t": "oracle",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "builds & operates Stargate data centers",
      "mag": 500000000000.0,
      "magU": "$500bn project",
      "asof": "2025",
      "disc": "filed",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/openai-oracle-softbank-plan-five-new-ai-data-centers-500-billion-stargate-2025-09-23",
      "note": "10GW total planned capacity across 5 sites.",
      "valid_from": "2025",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "stargate",
      "t": "mgx",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "$100B first-tranche commitment from",
      "mag": 100000000000.0,
      "magU": "$100bn first tranche",
      "asof": "2025",
      "disc": "filed",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/softbabnk-openai-oracle-and-mgx-commit-to-100b-for-stargate-ai-infrastructure",
      "note": "UAE-based AI investment fund.",
      "valid_from": "2025",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "microsoft_cloud",
      "t": "constellation",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "Three Mile Island restart — 20yr, 835MW, $16B deal",
      "mag": 16000000000.0,
      "magU": "$16bn, 20yr PPA",
      "asof": "2024",
      "disc": "filed",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.npr.org/2024/09/20/nx-s1-5120581/three-mile-island-nuclear-power-plant-microsoft-ai",
      "note": "Nuclear renaissance driven by AI power demand. Big tech signing 10GW+ of new US nuclear.",
      "valid_from": "2024",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "aws",
      "t": "talent_energy",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "$650M nuclear data center deal",
      "mag": 650000000.0,
      "magU": "$650m Talen Energy deal",
      "asof": "2024",
      "disc": "filed",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://enkiai.com/nuclear/amazon-talen-energy-data-center",
      "note": "Susquehanna nuclear station powering Amazon AI data centers.",
      "valid_from": "2024",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "google_quantum",
      "t": "alphabet",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "Alphabet subsidiary — Google Quantum AI",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "subsidiary",
      "asof": "2025",
      "disc": "filed",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://quantumai.google",
      "note": "Willow chip: first verifiable quantum advantage. Quantum Echoes algorithm.",
      "valid_from": "2025",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "isomorphic_labs",
      "t": "alphabet",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "Alphabet/DeepMind spinoff",
      "mag": 2100000000.0,
      "magU": "$2.1bn raised",
      "asof": "2025",
      "disc": "filed",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.rdworldonline.com/alphabet-spinoff-isomorphic-labs-raises-2-1-billion-in-quest-to-solve-all-disease-with-ai-based-drug-discovery-tools",
      "note": "Using AlphaFold for drug discovery. First clinical trials end 2026.",
      "valid_from": "2025",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "ibm",
      "t": "rapidus",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "2nm chip partnership with",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "technology transfer",
      "asof": "2025",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://research.ibm.com/blog/rapidus-ibm-move-closer-to-scaling-out-2-nm-chip-production",
      "note": "IBM gave Japan the 2nm chip tech. Critical milestone achieved.",
      "valid_from": "2025",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "figure_ai",
      "t": "openai",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "partners with OpenAI for robot intelligence",
      "mag": 675000000.0,
      "magU": "$675m Series B at $2.6bn, now $39bn",
      "asof": "2024",
      "disc": "filed",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/29/robot-startup-figure-valued-at-2point6-billion-by-bezos-amazon-nvidia.html",
      "note": "Bezos, OpenAI, Nvidia, Microsoft all backed Figure AI.",
      "valid_from": "2024",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "figure_ai",
      "t": "nvidia",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "Nvidia invested in Figure AI",
      "mag": 675000000.0,
      "magU": "part of $675m round",
      "asof": "2024",
      "disc": "filed",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://firstfuturist.substack.com/p/figure-ai-values-itself-at-39-billion",
      "note": "Nvidia investing in companies that will buy its chips.",
      "valid_from": "2024",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "mistral",
      "t": "nvidia",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "ordered 13,800 Nvidia GB300 GPUs for Paris datacenter",
      "mag": 830000000.0,
      "magU": "$830m debt facility",
      "asof": "2025",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.linkedin.com/posts/yrebryk_forget-the-narrative-europe-cant-build-activity-7458579231908995072-H5vX",
      "note": "Mistral becoming infrastructure company, not just model company.",
      "valid_from": "2025",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "stargate",
      "t": "uGovt",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "UAE planned 5GW AI cluster with US cooperation",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "5GW planned",
      "asof": "2025",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.middleeastainews.com/p/uae-us-plan-5gw-ai-cluster-arabic",
      "note": "UAE ranks 2nd globally in AI capability. Sovereign models: Falcon, Jais.",
      "valid_from": "2025",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "nvidia",
      "t": "celestica",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "key GPU cluster integrator",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "integration partnership",
      "asof": "2025",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.celestica.com/blog/article/ai-infrastructure-for-the-data-center-and-beyond",
      "note": "Scalable AI infrastructure from data center core to edge.",
      "valid_from": "2025",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "anthropic",
      "t": "dario_amodei",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "led by CEO Dario Amodei",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "CEO",
      "asof": "2026-05",
      "disc": "filed",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": null,
      "note": "Former VP Research at OpenAI. Anthropic at ~$965B valuation (Series H, May 2026).",
      "valid_from": "2026-05",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "deepseek",
      "t": "liang_wenfeng",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "founded by Liang Wenfeng (ex-hedge fund)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "founder",
      "asof": "2025",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": null,
      "note": "Former High-Flyer hedge fund manager. Disrupted global AI.",
      "valid_from": "2025",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "alphabet",
      "t": "sundar_pichai",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "CEO Sundar Pichai",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "CEO",
      "asof": "2019",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://blog.google/authors/sundar-pichai/",
      "note": "Google's own author page states he is CEO of Google and Alphabet. CEO of Google from 2015 and of Alphabet from 2019; the interval takes the Alphabet appointment, which is what this claim asserts.",
      "valid_from": "2019",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-08"
    },
    {
      "s": "arm",
      "t": "masayoshi_son",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "SoftBank / M. Son controls Arm (90%)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "90% owner",
      "asof": "2025",
      "disc": "filed",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://group.softbank/en/ir/financials/annual_reports/2025/message/arm",
      "note": "Son's empire: Arm + Nvidia stakes + Stargate + Vision Fund.",
      "valid_from": "2025",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "nvidia",
      "t": "figure_ai",
      "g": "loop",
      "pred": "Nvidia invests in Figure AI → Figure AI buys Nvidia chips → Nvidia revenue grows",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "circular investment → revenue",
      "asof": "2025",
      "disc": "derived",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": null,
      "note": "Nvidia invests in its own customers, creating circular capital flows.",
      "valid_from": "2025",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "microsoft",
      "t": "openai",
      "g": "loop",
      "pred": "Microsoft invests in OpenAI → OpenAI spends on Azure → Microsoft cloud revenue grows",
      "mag": 13000000000.0,
      "magU": "$13bn+ invested → Azure revenue",
      "asof": "2025",
      "disc": "derived",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": null,
      "note": "The original AI capital loop. Microsoft's OpenAI investment drives Azure AI revenue.",
      "valid_from": "2025",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "amazon",
      "t": "anthropic",
      "g": "loop",
      "pred": "Amazon invests in Anthropic → Anthropic spends on AWS → Amazon cloud revenue grows",
      "mag": 8000000000.0,
      "magU": "$8bn+ invested → AWS revenue",
      "asof": "2025",
      "disc": "filed",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.geekwire.com/2025/amazons-anthropic-investment-boosts-its-quarterly-profits-by-9-5b",
      "note": "Amazon's Anthropic stake boosted quarterly profits by $9.5B.",
      "valid_from": "2025",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "tencent_holding",
      "t": "deepseek",
      "g": "loop",
      "pred": "Tencent backs DeepSeek → DeepSeek uses Tencent Cloud → Tencent cloud revenue grows",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "circular investment → cloud revenue",
      "asof": "2025",
      "disc": "derived",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": null,
      "note": "Same capital loop pattern in China as Microsoft-OpenAI in US.",
      "valid_from": "2025",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "alphabet",
      "t": "sandboxaq",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "spun out SandboxAQ as an independent company (Mar 2022)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "spin-out, Mar 2022",
      "asof": "2022-03",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/22/alphabets-quantum-tech-group-sandbox-spins-off-into-an-independent-company.html",
      "note": "Independent company from Mar 2022; Alphabet remains a strategic investor post-spin-out.",
      "valid_from": "2022-03",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "sandboxaq",
      "t": "google_quantum",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "carries quantum R&D heritage from",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "origin: Alphabet quantum group",
      "asof": "2022",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/22/alphabets-quantum-tech-group-sandbox-spins-off-into-an-independent-company.html",
      "note": "SandboxAQ originated in Alphabet quantum-tech group before the 2022 spin-out.",
      "valid_from": "2022",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "sandboxaq",
      "t": "nvidia",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "trains LQMs on NVIDIA DGX Cloud",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "DGX Cloud (on GCP)",
      "asof": "2025-04",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.sandboxaq.com/press/sandboxaq-unlocks-new-capabilities-for-scientific-discovery-and-enterprise-innovation-with-nvidia-dgx-cloud",
      "note": "LQM training/inference on NVIDIA DGX Cloud; up to ~4x faster discovery. Nvidia is also a Series E investor - vendor-invests-in-customer.",
      "valid_from": "2025-04",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "jensen_huang",
      "t": "nvidia",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "is founder & CEO of",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Founder/CEO",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "filed",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001045810&type=DEF+14A",
      "note": "Single share class; control follows economic ownership.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "sam_altman",
      "t": "openai",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "is co-founder & CEO of",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Founder/CEO",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://openai.com",
      "note": "Also personally backs Retro Biosciences and Merge Labs.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "sam_altman",
      "t": "merge_labs",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "co-founded",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Co-founder",
      "asof": "2025",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.forbes.com/sites/robtoews/2025/10/05/these-are-the-startups-merging-your-brain-with-ai/",
      "note": "Puts Altman head-to-head with Musk's Neuralink.",
      "valid_from": "2025",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "sam_altman",
      "t": "retro_bio",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "seeded",
      "mag": 180000000,
      "magU": "$180M seed",
      "asof": "2025",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://fortune.com/2025/01/24/sam-altman-ai-biotech-1-billion-funding-extend-human-lifespan/",
      "note": "Retro later valued ~$1.8B (2026).",
      "valid_from": "2025",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "jeff_bezos",
      "t": "blue_origin",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "founded & funds",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Founder",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://techcrunch.com/2026/02/28/billion-dollar-infrastructure-deals-ai-boom-data-centers-openai-oracle-nvidia-microsoft-google-meta/",
      "note": "Now raising outside capital for the first time.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "jeff_bezos",
      "t": "prometheus_ai",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "backs",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Backer",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": null,
      "note": "Bezos's 'artificial general engineer' venture.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "jeff_bezos",
      "t": "altos_labs",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "co-funds",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Investor",
      "asof": "2025",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://health.yahoo.com/wellness/healthy-aging/longevity/articles/tech-billionaires-trying-hack-aging-090302963.html",
      "note": "Cellular-reprogramming longevity, ~$5B.",
      "valid_from": "2025",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "alex_karp",
      "t": "palantir",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "is co-founder & CEO of",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Founder/CEO",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "filed",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001321655",
      "note": "AI-sovereignty thesis; defense & intelligence focus.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "nvidia",
      "t": "palantir",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "partners with (sovereign AI)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Sovereign AI stack",
      "asof": "2025",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.thescenarionist.com/p/palantir-powers-nato-ai-self-driving",
      "note": "Palantir + Nvidia for government/defense AI.",
      "valid_from": "2025",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "satya_nadella",
      "t": "microsoft",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "is chairman & CEO of",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Chairman/CEO",
      "asof": "2014-02",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://news.microsoft.com/exec/satya-nadella/",
      "note": "Microsoft's own executive page gives the title as Chairman and Chief Executive Officer and dates the CEO appointment to February 2014. The chairmanship was added later; that date is not attested by this source.",
      "valid_from": "2014-02",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-08"
    },
    {
      "s": "microsoft",
      "t": "microsoft_ai",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "operates",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "In-house AI",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": null,
      "note": "Hedge against OpenAI dependence.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "demis_hassabis",
      "t": "alphabet",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "leads Google DeepMind within",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "CEO, DeepMind",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://lareviewofbooks.org/article/infinity-machine-demis-hassabis-google-deepmind-sebastian-mallaby/",
      "note": "2024 Nobel laureate in Chemistry.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "demis_hassabis",
      "t": "isomorphic_labs",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "founded & leads",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Founder",
      "asof": "2021",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.isomorphiclabs.com/",
      "note": "Isomorphic Labs' own site lists him as Founder and CEO. Company spun out of DeepMind in 2021.",
      "valid_from": "2021",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-08"
    },
    {
      "s": "ilya_sutskever",
      "t": "safe_superintelligence",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "co-founded & is CEO of",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Founder/CEO",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": null,
      "note": "Ex-OpenAI chief scientist.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "mira_murati",
      "t": "thinking_machines",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "founded & is CEO of",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Founder/CEO",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": null,
      "note": "Ex-OpenAI CTO.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "alexandr_wang",
      "t": "meta",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "is Chief AI Officer of",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "CAIO, MSL",
      "asof": "2025-06",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.meta.com/media-gallery/executives/",
      "note": "Listed on Meta's own executive page as Chief AI Officer. Joined June 2025 from Scale AI.",
      "valid_from": "2025-06",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-08"
    },
    {
      "s": "musk",
      "t": "neuralink",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "founded & controls",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Founder",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://interestingengineering.com/culture/elon-musk-neuralink-tesla-2026-plans",
      "note": "12 human implants by Sep 2025; Blindsight trial 2026.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "retro_bio",
      "t": "openai",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "uses OpenAI protein model (GPT-4b micro)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "~50x reprogramming",
      "asof": "2025",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.statnews.com/2026/05/22/retro-biosciences-longevity-valuation/",
      "note": "AI-designed proteins boosted cell reprogramming ~50x.",
      "valid_from": "2025",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "musk",
      "t": "th_robotics",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "is betting on",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Investment focus",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "derived",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": null,
      "note": "Investment / strategic focus area.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "musk",
      "t": "th_space",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "is betting on",
      "mag": null,
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      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "derived",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": null,
      "note": "Investment / strategic focus area.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "musk",
      "t": "th_bci",
      "g": "cap",
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      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Investment focus",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "derived",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": null,
      "note": "Investment / strategic focus area.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "musk",
      "t": "th_energy",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "is betting on",
      "mag": null,
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      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "derived",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": null,
      "note": "Investment / strategic focus area.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "musk",
      "t": "th_superintelligence",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "is betting on",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Investment focus",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "derived",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": null,
      "note": "Investment / strategic focus area.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "sam_altman",
      "t": "th_superintelligence",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "is betting on",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Investment focus",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "derived",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": null,
      "note": "Investment / strategic focus area.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "sam_altman",
      "t": "th_longevity",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "is betting on",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Investment focus",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "derived",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": null,
      "note": "Investment / strategic focus area.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "sam_altman",
      "t": "th_bci",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "is betting on",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Investment focus",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "derived",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": null,
      "note": "Investment / strategic focus area.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "sam_altman",
      "t": "th_energy",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "is betting on",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Investment focus",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "derived",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": null,
      "note": "Investment / strategic focus area.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "jeff_bezos",
      "t": "th_space",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "is betting on",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Investment focus",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "derived",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": null,
      "note": "Investment / strategic focus area.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "jeff_bezos",
      "t": "th_longevity",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "is betting on",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Investment focus",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "derived",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": null,
      "note": "Investment / strategic focus area.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "jeff_bezos",
      "t": "th_superintelligence",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "is betting on",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Investment focus",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "derived",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": null,
      "note": "Investment / strategic focus area.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "demis_hassabis",
      "t": "th_superintelligence",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "is betting on",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Investment focus",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "derived",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": null,
      "note": "Investment / strategic focus area.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "demis_hassabis",
      "t": "th_longevity",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "is betting on",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Investment focus",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "derived",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": null,
      "note": "Investment / strategic focus area.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "dario_amodei",
      "t": "th_superintelligence",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "is betting on",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Investment focus",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "derived",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": null,
      "note": "Investment / strategic focus area.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "dario_amodei",
      "t": "th_longevity",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "is betting on",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Investment focus",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "derived",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": null,
      "note": "Investment / strategic focus area.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "alex_karp",
      "t": "th_defense",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "is betting on",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Investment focus",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "derived",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": null,
      "note": "Investment / strategic focus area.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "alex_karp",
      "t": "th_superintelligence",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "is betting on",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Investment focus",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "derived",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": null,
      "note": "Investment / strategic focus area.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "satya_nadella",
      "t": "th_superintelligence",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "is betting on",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Investment focus",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "derived",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": null,
      "note": "Investment / strategic focus area.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "zuckerberg",
      "t": "th_superintelligence",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "is betting on",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Investment focus",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "derived",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": null,
      "note": "Investment / strategic focus area.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "zuckerberg",
      "t": "th_energy",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "is betting on",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Investment focus",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "derived",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": null,
      "note": "Investment / strategic focus area.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "alexandr_wang",
      "t": "th_superintelligence",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "is betting on",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Investment focus",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "derived",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": null,
      "note": "Investment / strategic focus area.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "ilya_sutskever",
      "t": "th_superintelligence",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "is betting on",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Investment focus",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "derived",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": null,
      "note": "Investment / strategic focus area.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "mira_murati",
      "t": "th_superintelligence",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "is betting on",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Investment focus",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "derived",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": null,
      "note": "Investment / strategic focus area.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "liang_wenfeng",
      "t": "th_superintelligence",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "is betting on",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Investment focus",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "derived",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": null,
      "note": "Investment / strategic focus area.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "jensen_huang",
      "t": "th_energy",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "is betting on",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Investment focus",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "derived",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": null,
      "note": "Investment / strategic focus area.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "retro_bio",
      "t": "th_longevity",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "is a bet on",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Investment focus",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "derived",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": null,
      "note": "Venture embodying this investment area.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "altos_labs",
      "t": "th_longevity",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "is a bet on",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Investment focus",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "derived",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": null,
      "note": "Venture embodying this investment area.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "isomorphic_labs",
      "t": "th_longevity",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "is a bet on",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Investment focus",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "derived",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": null,
      "note": "Venture embodying this investment area.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "recursion",
      "t": "th_longevity",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "is a bet on",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Investment focus",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "derived",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": null,
      "note": "Venture embodying this investment area.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "calico",
      "t": "th_longevity",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "is a bet on",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Investment focus",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "derived",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": null,
      "note": "Venture embodying this investment area.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "neuralink",
      "t": "th_bci",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "is a bet on",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Investment focus",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "derived",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": null,
      "note": "Venture embodying this investment area.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "merge_labs",
      "t": "th_bci",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "is a bet on",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Investment focus",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "derived",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": null,
      "note": "Venture embodying this investment area.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "figure_ai",
      "t": "th_robotics",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "is a bet on",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Investment focus",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "derived",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": null,
      "note": "Venture embodying this investment area.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "tesla",
      "t": "th_robotics",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "is a bet on",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Investment focus",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "derived",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": null,
      "note": "Venture embodying this investment area.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "blue_origin",
      "t": "th_space",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "is a bet on",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Investment focus",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "derived",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": null,
      "note": "Venture embodying this investment area.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "spacex",
      "t": "th_space",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "is a bet on",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Investment focus",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "derived",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": null,
      "note": "Venture embodying this investment area.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "palantir",
      "t": "th_defense",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "is a bet on",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Investment focus",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "derived",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": null,
      "note": "Venture embodying this investment area.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "constellation",
      "t": "th_energy",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "is a bet on",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Investment focus",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "derived",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": null,
      "note": "Venture embodying this investment area.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "talent_energy",
      "t": "th_energy",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "is a bet on",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Investment focus",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "derived",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": null,
      "note": "Venture embodying this investment area.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "crusoe_energy",
      "t": "th_energy",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "is a bet on",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Investment focus",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "derived",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": null,
      "note": "Venture embodying this investment area.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "anthropic",
      "t": "openai",
      "g": "talent",
      "pred": "spun off from (7 ex-OpenAI founders, 2021)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "7 co-founders",
      "asof": "2021",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthropic",
      "note": "Anthropic (founded 2021 by 7 ex-OpenAI staff) keeps draining OpenAI: ~43 poached vs ~4 reverse (10:1). SignalFire: engineers 8x more likely to leave OpenAI for Anthropic.",
      "valid_from": "2021",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "dario_amodei",
      "t": "openai",
      "g": "talent",
      "pred": "was VP of Research at",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2020",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dario_Amodei",
      "note": "Joined 2016, left at the end of 2020 to found Anthropic.",
      "valid_from": "2016",
      "valid_to": "2020",
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-08"
    },
    {
      "s": "mistral",
      "t": "alphabet",
      "g": "talent",
      "pred": "co-founded by ex-DeepMind",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arthur_Mensch",
      "note": "Arthur Mensch (ex-Google DeepMind, Paris).",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "mistral",
      "t": "meta",
      "g": "talent",
      "pred": "co-founded by ex-Meta FAIR",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mistral_AI",
      "note": "Guillaume Lample & Timothee Lacroix (ex-Meta FAIR).",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "xai",
      "t": "openai",
      "g": "talent",
      "pred": "recruited talent from",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/elon-musk-new-ai-company-xai-google-open-ai/",
      "note": "xAI drew heavily on OpenAI staff.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "xai",
      "t": "alphabet",
      "g": "talent",
      "pred": "recruited talent from DeepMind",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://fortune.com/2023/07/12/elon-musk-ai-startup-xai-deepmind-microsoft-executives/",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "deepseek",
      "t": "msra",
      "g": "talent",
      "pred": "talent from (MSRA alumni)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.yahoo.com/news/deepseek-hired-talent-microsoft-controversial-131906462.html",
      "note": "At least four DeepSeek staff, incl. a dept chief, are ex-Microsoft Research Asia (public LinkedIn).",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "zhipu",
      "t": "tsinghua_keg",
      "g": "talent",
      "pred": "spun off from",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.turingpost.com/p/zhipu",
      "note": "Founded 2019 out of Tsinghua's Knowledge Engineering Group.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "sandboxaq",
      "t": "alphabet",
      "g": "talent",
      "pred": "spun out of Alphabet X Moonshot (2022)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2022",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/22/alphabets-quantum-tech-group-sandbox-spins-off-into-an-independent-company.html",
      "note": "Incubated inside Alphabet 2016-2022; a Sergey Brin passion project. Alphabet is not a post-spinout parent.",
      "valid_from": "2022",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "reflection",
      "t": "alphabet",
      "g": "talent",
      "pred": "founded by ex-Google DeepMind researchers",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reflection_AI",
      "note": "Misha Laskin & Ioannis Antonoglou, both ex-Google DeepMind (Antonoglou co-created AlphaGo).",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "musk",
      "t": "openai",
      "g": "talent",
      "pred": "co-founded (2015), left 2018",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2015",
      "disc": "filed",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OpenAI",
      "note": "Musk co-founded OpenAI, left after a control dispute, then founded xAI.",
      "valid_from": "2015",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "apple",
      "t": "openai",
      "g": "talent",
      "pred": "lost 400+ staff to (talent drain)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "400+ staff",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/10/apple-openai-lawsuit-trade-secrets.html",
      "note": "Apple's own July 2026 complaint claims 400+ former Apple employees now work at OpenAI.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "meta",
      "t": "mistral",
      "g": "talent",
      "pred": "lost FAIR talent to",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mistral_AI",
      "note": "Two of Mistral's three founders are ex-Meta FAIR.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "yann_lecun",
      "t": "meta",
      "g": "talent",
      "pred": "was chief AI scientist at",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2025",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/19/meta-chief-ai-scientist-yann-lecun-is-leaving-the-company-.html",
      "note": "Joined Facebook in 2013 as FAIR director and took the chief-AI-scientist title in 2018. Departure announced 19 Nov 2025, effective end of 2025. The predicate previously read 'departed 2026', which the source does not support.",
      "valid_from": "2018",
      "valid_to": "2025",
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-08"
    },
    {
      "s": "eric_schmidt",
      "t": "alphabet",
      "g": "talent",
      "pred": "was CEO and chairman of",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2011",
      "disc": "filed",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://news.crunchbase.com/enterprise/alphabet-sandbox-aq-vc-funding-quantum-computing/",
      "note": "Interval taken from the range the predicate already carried. He stayed on as executive chairman after 2011; that is a different claim and is not recorded here.",
      "valid_from": "2001",
      "valid_to": "2011",
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-08"
    },
    {
      "s": "jack_hidary",
      "t": "alphabet",
      "g": "talent",
      "pred": "led the Sandbox AI and quantum unit at",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2022-03",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/22/alphabets-quantum-tech-group-sandbox-spins-off-into-an-independent-company.html",
      "note": "Sandbox launched inside Alphabet in 2016 and spun out as SandboxAQ in March 2022. The predicate previously said 'Google X (Moonshot)'; Sandbox was a separate group, not part of X.",
      "valid_from": "2016",
      "valid_to": "2022-03",
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-08"
    },
    {
      "s": "alexandr_wang",
      "t": "scale_ai",
      "g": "talent",
      "pred": "founded",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/12/scale-ai-founder-wang-announces-exit-for-meta-part-of-14-billion-deal.html",
      "note": "Meta hired him from Scale AI to run Superintelligence Labs.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "jack_hidary",
      "t": "sandboxaq",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "founder & CEO of",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Founder (internal Alphabet effort ~2016) + CEO since 2022",
      "asof": "2022-03",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.sandboxaq.com/company/leadership/jack-hidary",
      "note": "Founded the quantum-tech group inside Alphabet (~2016); CEO of SandboxAQ since the Mar-2022 spin-out.",
      "valid_from": "2022-03",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "eric_schmidt",
      "t": "sandboxaq",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "Chairman of the Board of Directors of",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Chairman (Board) — not co-founder",
      "asof": "2022-03",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.sandboxaq.com/company/leadership/eric-schmidt",
      "note": "Scope: Chairman of the Board of Directors + investor ONLY. NOT co-founder, operational partner, or technical lead. Role since the Mar-2022 Alphabet spin-out.",
      "valid_from": "2022-03",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "musk",
      "t": "xai",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "founded (2023)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2023",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/12/elon-musk-launches-his-new-company-xai.html",
      "note": "OpenAI co-founder -> xAI founder -> SpaceX via the Feb 2026 merger.",
      "valid_from": "2023",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "apple",
      "t": "openai",
      "g": "legal",
      "pred": "sues for trade-secret theft over hardware designs",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026-07-10",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/10/apple-openai-lawsuit-trade-secrets.html",
      "note": "Filed 10 July 2026 in the Northern District of California against OpenAI, IO Products and two former Apple employees. An allegation, not a finding.",
      "valid_from": "2026-07-10",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-08"
    },
    {
      "s": "musk",
      "t": "openai",
      "g": "legal",
      "pred": "sued (abandoned nonprofit mission)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Musk_v._Altman",
      "note": "Musk alleged OpenAI abandoned its nonprofit mission; court ruled he sued too late. Public feud with Altman continues. Jury dismissed all claims - statute of limitations (May 2026)",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "musk",
      "t": "apple",
      "g": "legal",
      "pred": "sued (app-store antitrust re: Grok)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/25/musk-lawsuit-apple-openai-monopoly.html",
      "note": "Filed by Musk's X Corp / xAI (Aug 2025): alleges Apple favours OpenAI/ChatGPT in the App Store over X and Grok.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "apple",
      "t": "openai",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "integrates ChatGPT into Apple Intelligence",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2024-06",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://openai.com/index/openai-and-apple-announce-partnership/",
      "note": "Announced June 2024 and still in place. Reported as strained through 2026, with Gemini contracted for the revamped Siri and ChatGPT losing privileged status, but integrated. The previous predicate called it a former partnership, which the record does not support.",
      "valid_from": "2024-06",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-08"
    },
    {
      "s": "sandboxaq",
      "t": "anthropic",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "integrates LQMs with Claude via MCP",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "LQM<->LLM (May 2026)",
      "asof": "2026-05",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.sandboxaq.com/press/sandboxaq-integrates-its-quantitative-ai-models-with-anthropics-claude-via-mcp",
      "note": "Connects a large quantitative model to Claude for drug/materials discovery via plain-English prompts; AQPotency/AQCell to follow.",
      "valid_from": "2026-05",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "sandboxaq",
      "t": "alphabet",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "LQMs on Google Cloud Marketplace",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.sandboxaq.com/press/sandboxaq-and-google-cloud-partner-to-accelerate-quantitative-ai-for-the-enterprise",
      "note": "Follows SandboxAQ's $500M CHIPS award.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "spacex",
      "t": "microsoft",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "Starlink x Azure partnership",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/24/microsoft-spacex-starlink-global-internet.html",
      "note": "LEO satellite connectivity linked to Azure cloud (Feb 2026).",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "deepseek",
      "t": "microsoft",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "models offered via Microsoft Copilot",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://azure.microsoft.com/en-us/blog/deepseek-r1-is-now-available-on-azure-ai-foundry-and-github/",
      "note": "Microsoft made DeepSeek models available despite US-China tensions.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "coreweave",
      "t": "core_scientific",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "hosts GPUs with (~$6.7B)",
      "mag": 6700000000,
      "magU": "~$6.7B",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20241022927349/en/Core-Scientific-Announces-Exercise-of-Final-Contract-Option-by-CoreWeave-for-Delivery-of-Approximately-120-MW-of-Additional-Digital-Infrastructure-to-Host-High-Performance-Computing-Operations",
      "note": "~$6.7B projected over 12-year hosting contracts; CoreWeave later agreed to acquire Core Scientific (Jul 2025).",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "openai",
      "t": "cursor",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "invested $8M in",
      "mag": 8000000,
      "magU": "$8M",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cursor_(company)",
      "note": "Early OpenAI cheque into Cursor (Anysphere).",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "meta",
      "t": "scale_ai",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "took ~$14B stake in",
      "mag": 14300000000,
      "magU": "~$14.3B (49% stake)",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/10/zuckerberg-makes-metas-biggest-bet-on-ai-14-billion-scale-ai-deal.html",
      "note": "~$14.3B for a 49% non-voting stake (~$29B valuation); Wang left to lead Meta Superintelligence Labs.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "openai",
      "t": "sb_energy",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "co-invested $1B in",
      "mag": 1000000000,
      "magU": "$1B (joint)",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://openai.com/index/stargate-sb-energy-partnership/",
      "note": "With SoftBank, for AI data-centre power (Jan 2026).",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "softbank",
      "t": "sb_energy",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "co-invested $1B in",
      "mag": 1000000000,
      "magU": "$1B (joint)",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://openai.com/index/stargate-sb-energy-partnership/",
      "note": "With OpenAI.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "alphabet",
      "t": "sandboxaq",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "strategic investor in (post-spinout)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://news.crunchbase.com/venture/sandboxaq-ai-quantum-raise-googl-nvda/",
      "note": "Google remains a strategic investor though not a parent; co-investors incl. Eric Schmidt, Jim Breyer, Ray Dalio, T. Rowe Price, a16z.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "nvidia",
      "t": "openai",
      "g": "loop",
      "pred": "circular: invests $30B -> OpenAI buys Nvidia GPUs",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "$30bn (part of $110bn round)",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/27/open-ai-funding-round-amazon.html",
      "note": "Nvidia funds its own largest customer; capital returns as GPU revenue.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "nvidia",
      "t": "anthropic",
      "g": "loop",
      "pred": "circular: invests up to $10B -> Anthropic buys Nvidia GPUs",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "up to $10B",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/18/anthropic-ai-azure-microsoft-nvidia.html",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "nvidia",
      "t": "coreweave",
      "g": "loop",
      "pred": "circular: invests $2B -> CoreWeave buys Nvidia GPUs",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "$2B",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-and-coreweave-strengthen-collaboration-to-accelerate-buildout-of-ai-factories",
      "note": "$2B equity (Jan 2026, $87.20/sh) + a 5GW AI-factory deal.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "us_gov",
      "t": "sandboxaq",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "$500M CHIPS R&D award to",
      "mag": 500000000,
      "magU": "$500M",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.nist.gov/news-events/news/2026/06/department-commerce-announces-definitive-agreement-sandboxaq-500-million",
      "note": "Dept of Commerce / NIST, 2026-06; to accelerate AI-driven semiconductor design.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "anthropic",
      "t": "microsoft_cloud",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "commits $30B compute to",
      "mag": 30000000000,
      "magU": "$30B",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/21/anthropic-microsoft-maia-200-ai-chip.html",
      "note": "Azure.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "anthropic",
      "t": "alphabet",
      "g": "talent",
      "pred": "poaches DeepMind talent (11x)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2026-06-29/google-poised-to-lose-two-more-senior-ai-staffers-to-anthropic",
      "note": "DeepMind engineers ~11x more likely to leave for Anthropic than the reverse (SignalFire 2025).",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "oracle",
      "t": "openai",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "$300B, 5-yr compute deal (from 2027, 4.5GW)",
      "mag": 300000000000,
      "magU": "$300B",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.wsj.com/business/openai-oracle-sign-300-billion-computing-deal-among-biggest-in-history-ff27c8fe",
      "note": "Largest tech contract in history; enabled by the end of Microsoft exclusivity.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "nvidia",
      "t": "stargate",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "supplies GPUs to",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/key-stakeholders-500-billion-stargate-ai-project-2025-10-01",
      "note": "Chip supplier to Stargate (separate from its $100B OpenAI stake).",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "openai",
      "t": "stargate_uae",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "anchors",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://openai.com/index/introducing-stargate-uae",
      "note": "International Stargate arm.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "g42",
      "t": "stargate_uae",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "builds",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.g42.ai/resources/news/global-tech-alliance-launches-stargate-uae",
      "note": "1GW Abu Dhabi cluster.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "mgx",
      "t": "stargate_uae",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "funds",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://openai.com/index/introducing-stargate-uae",
      "note": "UAE sovereign AI capital.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "mgx",
      "t": "openai",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "holds a stake in",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.uaepreferred.com/perspectives/mgx-joins-500-billion-us-ai-infrastructure-partnership-stargate",
      "note": "MGX ($100B AI assets) also a Stargate partner and former xAI investor.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "nvidia",
      "t": "nebius",
      "g": "loop",
      "pred": "circular: invests $2B -> Nebius buys Nvidia GB300/Rubin",
      "mag": 2000000000,
      "magU": "$2B",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/nebius-just-bagged-billion-dollar-153735058.html",
      "note": "Mar 2026; early Rubin/Vera access.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "nvidia",
      "t": "iren",
      "g": "loop",
      "pred": "circular: commits up to $2.1B -> IREN builds Nvidia data centres",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "up to $2.1B",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://io-fund.com/ai-stocks/nvidia-coreweave-nebius-circular-financing-gpu-boom",
      "note": "5-yr option.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "nvidia",
      "t": "recursion",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "holds a stake in (13F)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://io-fund.com/ai-stocks/nvidia-coreweave-nebius-circular-financing-gpu-boom",
      "note": "Nvidia equity in AI drug-discovery firm Recursion.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "meta",
      "t": "nebius",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "$27B, 5-yr compute deal",
      "mag": 27000000000,
      "magU": "$27B",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/16/meta-nebius-ai-infrastructure.html",
      "note": "$12B dedicated + $15B available; a first large-scale GB300 deployment.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "reflection",
      "t": "nebius",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "$1B+ compute through 2029",
      "mag": 1000000000,
      "magU": "$1B+",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/ai-startup-reflection-signs-over-1-billion-computing-deal-with-nebius-2026-07-14",
      "note": "GB300.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "nvidia",
      "t": "reflection",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "backs",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.investing.com/analysis/nebius-groups-50-billion-backlog-could-offset-its-valuation-risk-200684064",
      "note": "Reflection AI is directly Nvidia-backed.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "microsoft",
      "t": "constellation",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "835MW 20-yr nuclear PPA",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "835MW",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2026/02/19/why-microsoft-and-amazon-are-turning-to-nuclear-power-for-ai",
      "note": "Three Mile Island restart; ~$100/MWh.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "amazon",
      "t": "talent_energy",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "up to 1.92GW nuclear (Susquehanna, to 2042)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "1.92GW",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/talen-energy-tln-pjm-capacity-auction-ai-data-center-power",
      "note": "$650M into the data centre; $20B+ total site investment.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "microsoft",
      "t": "crusoe",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "leases 700MW (Abilene 900MW campus)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "700MW",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/microsoft-agrees-to-lease-700mw-at-crusoes-data-center-in-abilene-texas-report",
      "note": "Gas-powered AI factory; first building mid-2027.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "moonshot_ai",
      "t": "alphabet",
      "g": "talent",
      "pred": "founder from Google Brain",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.thewirechina.com/2025/09/28/who-is-moonshot-ai",
      "note": "CEO Yang Zhilin (Tsinghua->CMU) worked at Google Brain (Transformer-XL/XLNet).",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "moonshot_ai",
      "t": "meta",
      "g": "talent",
      "pred": "founder from Meta FAIR",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yang_Zhilin",
      "note": "Yang Zhilin also worked at Meta FAIR - the US-China talent pipeline runs both ways.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "moonshot_ai",
      "t": "tsinghua_keg",
      "g": "talent",
      "pred": "all four founders from Tsinghua",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.thewirechina.com/2025/09/28/who-is-moonshot-ai",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "tencent",
      "t": "bytedance",
      "g": "talent",
      "pred": "poaches researchers (double salaries)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.scmp.com/tech/big-tech/article/3350521/bytedance-tencent-step-up-ai-talent-battle-amid-reported-departure-deepseek-researcher",
      "note": "China AI talent war; both also chase DeepSeek talent.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "peter_thiel",
      "t": "palantir",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "co-founded & chairs",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "filed",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PayPal_Mafia",
      "note": "PayPal Mafia; Palantir's founding chairman.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "peter_thiel",
      "t": "foundersfund",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "founded & runs",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PayPal_Mafia",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "peter_thiel",
      "t": "anduril",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "backs (Founders Fund)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://foundersfund.com/portfolio",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "peter_thiel",
      "t": "musk",
      "g": "talent",
      "pred": "PayPal Mafia co-member with",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PayPal_Mafia",
      "note": "Thiel & Musk both PayPal alumni; the network links SpaceX, Palantir, Anduril, Founders Fund.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "foundersfund",
      "t": "openai",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "joined OpenAI's $8.3B round (2025)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2025",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://foundersfund.com/portfolio",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2025",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "foundersfund",
      "t": "crusoe",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "led ~$600M Series D in",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://foundersfund.com/portfolio",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "nvidia",
      "t": "figure_ai",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "invested in ($675M Series B, 2024)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2024",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.reuters.com/technology/robotics-startup-figure-raises-675-mln-microsoft-nvidia-other-big-techs-2024-02-29",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2024",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "microsoft",
      "t": "figure_ai",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "invested in ($675M round)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.reuters.com/technology/robotics-startup-figure-raises-675-mln-microsoft-nvidia-other-big-techs-2024-02-29",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "jeff_bezos",
      "t": "figure_ai",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "invested in",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://fortune.com/2024/03/01/humanoid-robots-with-ai-figure-funding-openai-bezos-nvidia",
      "note": "$39B valuation later reached.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "japan_meti",
      "t": "rapidus",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "$4B state funding for 2nm",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "$4B",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rapidus",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "cn_gov_fund",
      "t": "smic",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "$8.2B National AI Fund",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "$8.2B",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": null,
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "qia",
      "t": "openai",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "Qatar sovereign AI capital",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.reuters.com/technology/brookfield-qatars-qai-form-20-billion-jv-ai-infrastructure-2025-12-09",
      "note": "QIA also has a $20B AI-infrastructure JV with Brookfield.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "nvidia",
      "t": "coherent",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "invests $2B in (silicon photonics)",
      "mag": 2000000000,
      "magU": "$2B",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/02/nvidia-investment-coherent-lumentum.html",
      "note": "Part of Nvidia's $4B photonics push to fix the optical bottleneck in AI factories.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "nvidia",
      "t": "lumentum",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "invests $2B in (optics + US fab)",
      "mag": 2000000000,
      "magU": "$2B",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-strategic-partnership-with-lumentum-to-develop-state-of-the-art-optics-technology",
      "note": "R&D and new US manufacturing for gigawatt-scale AI-factory optics.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "nvidia",
      "t": "corning",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "invests $500M in (optical connectivity)",
      "mag": 500000000,
      "magU": "$500M",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/02/nvidia-investment-coherent-lumentum.html",
      "note": "Corrected: $500M (not the $3.2B in earlier aggregator reports).",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "nvidia",
      "t": "nscale",
      "g": "loop",
      "pred": "circular: invests in ($2B Series C) -> Nscale buys Nvidia GPUs",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "$2B round",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.datacenterknowledge.com/servers/nvidia-backed-nscale-soars-to-14-6b-valuation-after-latest-funding-round",
      "note": "~$14.6B valuation; serves Microsoft & OpenAI.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "musk",
      "t": "boring_company",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "founded",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-inc-company-connections-tesla-spacex-xai-boring-2026-2",
      "note": "Part of Musk's personal-conglomerate interlock.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "gracias",
      "t": "neuralink",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "board director of",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/factbox-ipo-bound-spacexs-board-110616776.html",
      "note": "Antonio Gracias sits on Neuralink's board too - a Musk-empire board interlock.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "gracias",
      "t": "boring_company",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "board director of",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/factbox-ipo-bound-spacexs-board-110616776.html",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "cursor",
      "t": "openai",
      "g": "talent",
      "pred": "early team incl. ex-OpenAI engineer",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://cursor.com/blog/team",
      "note": "Lukas Moller (ex-OpenAI) built Cursor's in-house inference engine; the four founders themselves are MIT.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "openai",
      "t": "alphabet",
      "g": "talent",
      "pred": "recruited senior DeepMind researchers",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/google-brain-drain-deepens-gemini-190000767.html",
      "note": "Noam Shazeer and others - the OpenAI<->DeepMind talent chokepoint runs both ways.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "alibaba_holding",
      "t": "t_head",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "owns (chip subsidiary)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/alibaba-unveils-new-ai-chip-push-domestic-alternatives-2026-05-20",
      "note": "Zhenwu chips as domestic Nvidia alternatives.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "alibaba_holding",
      "t": "damo_academy",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "operates (research institute)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://damo.alibaba.com/about?language=en",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "alibaba_holding",
      "t": "qwen",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "owns Qwen model family",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://huggingface.co/Qwen",
      "note": "Open + commercial LLMs.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "t_head",
      "t": "nvidia",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "designs chips to rival",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/alibaba-unveils-new-ai-chip-push-domestic-alternatives-2026-05-20",
      "note": "Zhenwu M890 targets Nvidia GPUs - domestic substitution under sanctions.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "qwen",
      "t": "apple",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "powers Apple Intelligence in China",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/15/alibaba-qwen-ai-apple-intelligence.html",
      "note": "Jul 2026: Qwen approved to power Apple Intelligence across iOS/macOS in China - beating Baidu Ernie for the slot.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "manus_ai",
      "t": "qwen",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "strategic partner of",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/chinas-manus-ai-announces-partnership-with-alibabas-qwen-team-2025-03-11",
      "note": "Agentic-AI partnership (Mar 2025).",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "alibaba_holding",
      "t": "moonshot_ai",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "lead investor in (~36% stake)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/alibaba-emerges-major-backer-high-093000728.html",
      "note": "Largest shareholder of Kimi-maker Moonshot.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "alibaba_holding",
      "t": "minimax",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "lead investor in",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/alibaba-emerges-major-backer-high-093000728.html",
      "note": "With Abu Dhabi Investment Authority for a HK IPO.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "alibaba_holding",
      "t": "zeroone_ai",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "led round in (via Cloud)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://eu.36kr.com/en/p/3897971721193097",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "alibaba_holding",
      "t": "baichuan",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "investor in",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/alibaba-emerges-major-backer-high-093000728.html",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "alibaba_holding",
      "t": "sensetime",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "early lead investor ($600M, 2018)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2018",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/09/chinese-ai-startup-sensetime-raises-600-million-from-alibaba-others.html",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2018",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "alibaba_holding",
      "t": "ant_group",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "affiliated with (AI fintech)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.alibabagroup.com/en-US/document-1871720871488389120",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "alibaba_holding",
      "t": "cainiao",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "controls ~64% (AI logistics)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.alibabacloud.com/en/customers/cainiao-logistics",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "alibaba_holding",
      "t": "lazada",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "owns ($2B AI investment)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.scmp.com/tech/big-tech/article/3272681/alibaba-deploy-ai-powered-sourcing-engine-boost-online-trade-global-merchants",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "joe_tsai",
      "t": "alibaba_holding",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "is Chairman of",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.alibabagroup.com/en-US/document-1871720871488389120",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "eddie_wu",
      "t": "alibaba_holding",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "is CEO of",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.scmp.com/tech/big-tech/article/3299858/alibaba-commits-us53-billion-ai-infrastructure-largest-private-computing-project",
      "note": "Announced the $53B AI plan; dual role also leading Taobao/Tmall.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "foundersfund",
      "t": "anthropic",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "invested $1.25B in",
      "mag": 1250000000,
      "magU": "$1.25B",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://thenextweb.com/news/founders-fund-6-billion-ai-venture",
      "note": "Largest single check in Founders Fund history at the time.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "foundersfund",
      "t": "xai",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "holds a stake in (via SpaceX)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://valorinternational.globo.com/markets/news/2026/05/06/founders-fund-invests-early-doubles-down-on-top-companies.ghtml",
      "note": "INVESTED IN ALL RIVALS: Founders Fund is in OpenAI, Anthropic AND xAI at once.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "foundersfund",
      "t": "anduril",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "led $1B+ round in ($30.5B val)",
      "mag": 1000000000,
      "magU": "$1B+",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/05/anduril-valuation-founders-fund.html",
      "note": "Largest investment in Founders Fund history.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "peter_thiel",
      "t": "panthalassa",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "personally backs (~$140M)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "~$140M",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/energy/articles/palantir-co-founder-peter-thiel-142536709.html",
      "note": "Wave-powered AI data centres.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "peter_thiel",
      "t": "valar_ventures",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "co-founded",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://foundersfund.com/portfolio",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "peter_thiel",
      "t": "paypal_mafia",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "central figure of",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PayPal_Mafia",
      "note": "The PayPal 'don'.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "musk",
      "t": "paypal_mafia",
      "g": "talent",
      "pred": "member of",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PayPal_Mafia",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "joe_lonsdale",
      "t": "palantir",
      "g": "talent",
      "pred": "co-founded",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palantir_Technologies",
      "note": "Thiel-network lieutenant.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "in_q_tel",
      "t": "palantir",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "early investor in (CIA venture arm)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/In-Q-Tel",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "palantir",
      "t": "us_defense",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "supplies AI to ($250M R&D)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.palantir.com/newsroom/media",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "palantir",
      "t": "us_gov",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "compiles federal data (Trump/DOGE, $113M+)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/30/technology/trump-palantir-data-americans.html",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "palantir",
      "t": "us_ice",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "supplies 'ImmigrationOS' to",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org/blog/ice-immigrationos-palantir-ai-track-immigrants",
      "note": "AI tracking/deportation system.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "palantir",
      "t": "idf",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "AI targeting used by",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.npr.org/2025/05/01/nx-s1-5372776/palantir-tech-contracts-trump",
      "note": "Reported use in Gaza strikes.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "palantir",
      "t": "uk_gov",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "£670M+ NHS / MoD contracts",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.wired.com/story/uk-government-palantir-warning-report",
      "note": "U.K. parliament flagged an 'unacceptable point of weakness'. Incl. a £240M MoD direct award (Dec 2025, no tender) - controversial in Parliament",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "anduril",
      "t": "us_defense",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "defense-AI contractor to",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/05/anduril-valuation-founders-fund.html",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "spacex",
      "t": "x_twitter",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "absorbed (via xAI merger)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/02/technology/spacex-xai-deal.html",
      "note": "xAI folded into SpaceX Feb 2026, bringing X/Twitter into the combined ~$1.25T 'SpaceXAI' entity.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "tesla",
      "t": "xai",
      "g": "data",
      "pred": "FSD data feeds Grok training",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.notateslaapp.com/news/4413/tesla-ai-chief-confirms-fsd-integration-for-grok-is-coming-soon",
      "note": "Every FSD interaction trains Grok; integration due fall 2026.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "x_twitter",
      "t": "xai",
      "g": "data",
      "pred": "real-time social data trains Grok",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/02/technology/spacex-xai-deal.html",
      "note": "A data asset no rival has.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "spacex",
      "t": "xai",
      "g": "data",
      "pred": "redirects engineers to Grok",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/02/technology/spacex-xai-deal.html",
      "note": "Musk moved Starlink/Starship talent to strengthen Grok.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "xai",
      "t": "tesla",
      "g": "data",
      "pred": "Grok integrated into ('Hey Grok', FSD)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.notateslaapp.com/news/4413/tesla-ai-chief-confirms-fsd-integration-for-grok-is-coming-soon",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "tesla",
      "t": "xai",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "internal-adoption mandate (Grok 4.5)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://electrek.co/2026/07/10/musk-tells-tesla-staff-switch-grok",
      "note": "Musk told Tesla staff to use Grok internally despite it trailing OpenAI/Anthropic/Google.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "tesla",
      "t": "dojo",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "operates",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Dojo",
      "note": "Custom AI supercomputer.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "igor_babuschkin",
      "t": "xai",
      "g": "talent",
      "pred": "co-founded, then departed",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://thenextweb.com/news/xai-all-cofounders-departed-musk-spacex-rebuild",
      "note": "All 11 xAI co-founders have left (2023-2026) - unprecedented in AI.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "christian_szegedy",
      "t": "xai",
      "g": "talent",
      "pred": "co-founded, then departed",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://thenextweb.com/news/xai-all-cofounders-departed-musk-spacex-rebuild",
      "note": "All 11 xAI co-founders have left (2023-2026) - unprecedented in AI.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "toby_pohlen",
      "t": "xai",
      "g": "talent",
      "pred": "co-founded, then departed",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://thenextweb.com/news/xai-all-cofounders-departed-musk-spacex-rebuild",
      "note": "All 11 xAI co-founders have left (2023-2026) - unprecedented in AI.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "manuel_kroiss",
      "t": "xai",
      "g": "talent",
      "pred": "co-founded, then departed",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://thenextweb.com/news/xai-all-cofounders-departed-musk-spacex-rebuild",
      "note": "All 11 xAI co-founders have left (2023-2026) - unprecedented in AI.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "greg_yang",
      "t": "xai",
      "g": "talent",
      "pred": "co-founded, then departed",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://thenextweb.com/news/xai-all-cofounders-departed-musk-spacex-rebuild",
      "note": "All 11 xAI co-founders have left (2023-2026) - unprecedented in AI.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "kyle_kosic",
      "t": "xai",
      "g": "talent",
      "pred": "co-founded, then departed",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://thenextweb.com/news/xai-all-cofounders-departed-musk-spacex-rebuild",
      "note": "All 11 xAI co-founders have left (2023-2026) - unprecedented in AI.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "jimmy_ba",
      "t": "xai",
      "g": "talent",
      "pred": "co-founded, then departed",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://thenextweb.com/news/xai-all-cofounders-departed-musk-spacex-rebuild",
      "note": "All 11 xAI co-founders have left (2023-2026) - unprecedented in AI.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "tony_wu",
      "t": "xai",
      "g": "talent",
      "pred": "co-founded, then departed",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://thenextweb.com/news/xai-all-cofounders-departed-musk-spacex-rebuild",
      "note": "All 11 xAI co-founders have left (2023-2026) - unprecedented in AI.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "igor_babuschkin",
      "t": "alphabet",
      "g": "talent",
      "pred": "ex-Google DeepMind",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.businessinsider.com/xai-power-players-elon-musk-startup-grok-2024-12",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "christian_szegedy",
      "t": "alphabet",
      "g": "talent",
      "pred": "ex-Google",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.siliconrepublic.com/business/toby-pohlen-latest-co-founder-to-exit-xai-jimmy-ba-tony-wu",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "xai",
      "t": "meta",
      "g": "talent",
      "pred": "poached 14 Meta AI engineers",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/musk-poaches-14-meta-ai-174235265.html",
      "note": "Without matching $250M retention offers.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "openai",
      "t": "tesla",
      "g": "talent",
      "pred": "aggressively poaches engineers from",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-says-openai-has-been-poaching-tesla-engineers-aggressively-2024-4",
      "note": "Musk raised Tesla pay in response.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "alibaba",
      "t": "nvidia",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "cleared to buy H200 GPUs from (Jul 2026)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "400K units",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/us-clears-h200-chip-sales-10-china-firms-nvidia-ceo-looks-breakthrough-2026-05-14",
      "note": "US approved H200 sales to 10 China firms; Alibaba/Tencent/ByteDance ~400K units (~$50B).",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "alibaba",
      "t": "nvidia",
      "g": "rival",
      "pred": "open-sourced 'Sail' stack to break CUDA lock-in",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://thenextweb.com/news/alibaba-t-head-sail-open-source-nvidia-cuda-alternative",
      "note": "Compete-and-cooperate: buys H200s while attacking Nvidia's software moat.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "alibaba",
      "t": "meta",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "first Chinese cloud to host Meta's Llama (2023)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2023",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.reuters.com/technology/alibabas-cloud-unit-brings-metas-ai-model-llama-its-clients-2023-07-26",
      "note": "Distribute-then-compete.",
      "valid_from": "2023",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "qwen",
      "t": "meta",
      "g": "rival",
      "pred": "rivals Llama (1B+ HF downloads)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.reuters.com/technology/alibabas-cloud-unit-brings-metas-ai-model-llama-its-clients-2023-07-26",
      "note": "Alibaba distributes Llama and competes with it via Qwen.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "alibaba",
      "t": "baidu",
      "g": "rival",
      "pred": "Qwen vs Ernie; both won Apple China",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/alibaba-baidu-shares-jump-apple-120524818.html",
      "note": "Kunlun vs Zhenwu on chips too.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "alibaba",
      "t": "tencent",
      "g": "rival",
      "pred": "leads China AI cloud (~35.8%) over",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/alibaba-holds-wide-lead-over-093000369.html",
      "note": "Different strategies: Alibaba infra+open-source, Tencent consumer.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "alibaba",
      "t": "bytedance",
      "g": "rival",
      "pred": "Qwen vs Doubao; same-day AI-companion ban",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.scmp.com/tech/big-tech/article/3359482/bytedance-and-alibaba-disable-humanlike-ai-custom-agents-new-rules-loom",
      "note": "Both disabled AI companions on 15 Jul 2026 under new Beijing rules.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "alibaba",
      "t": "huawei",
      "g": "rival",
      "pred": "domestic AI-chip race (Zhenwu vs Ascend)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.scmp.com/tech/tech-war/article/3361048/alibaba-targets-nvidias-dominant-software-ecosystem-open-source-ai-stack",
      "note": "Both in China's ~$295B chip self-reliance push.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "alibaba",
      "t": "amazon",
      "g": "rival",
      "pred": "#4 cloud vs AWS #1",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://knowledge.insead.edu/entrepreneurship/big-techs-global-strategy-in-cloud",
      "note": "AWS cut China prices ~60% below Alibaba with limited success.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "alibaba",
      "t": "arm",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "builds ARM-based cloud CPUs",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.arm.com/company/success-library/made-possible/alibaba",
      "note": "ARM-based inference/AGI CPU.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "softbank",
      "t": "alibaba_holding",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "was the largest shareholder of",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2024-01",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.scmp.com/tech/article/3249933/japans-softbank-concludes-run-alibabas-biggest-shareholder-drawing-close-one-most-successful",
      "note": "Roughly 23 years as largest shareholder, ended by a prepaid forward settled between October 2021 and January 2024.",
      "valid_from": "2000",
      "valid_to": "2024-01",
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-08"
    },
    {
      "s": "xai",
      "t": "microsoft",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "Grok hosted on Azure AI Foundry (frenemy)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.geekwire.com/2025/elon-and-satya-together-again-microsoft-brings-musks-xai-models-to-azure-despite-openai-feud",
      "note": "Musk + Nadella announced it at Build 2025, despite the OpenAI feud.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "xai",
      "t": "nvidia",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "major GPU customer (Colossus 200K+ H100/H200/GB200)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://introl.com/blog/xai-colossus-2-gigawatt-expansion-555k-gpus-january-2026",
      "note": "~$18B; seeking ~$12B more.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "nvidia",
      "t": "xai",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "diverted Tesla-reserved GPUs to (per Musk)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/04/elon-musk-told-nvidia-to-ship-ai-chips-reserved-for-tesla-to-x-xai.html",
      "note": "Internal Nvidia emails: Musk told Nvidia to ship Tesla-allocated chips to xAI/X.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "tesla",
      "t": "nvidia",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "deepened GPU reliance after scrapping Dojo",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intelligence/tesla-scraps-custom-dojo-wafer-level-processor-initiative-dismantles-team-musk-to-lean-on-nvidia-and-amd-more",
      "note": "Leaning on Nvidia + AMD.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "intel",
      "t": "terafab",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "foundry partner in",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonmarkman/2026/04/10/intel-joins-terafab-to-build-elon-musks-25b-ai-chip-project",
      "note": "$25B JV to cut Nvidia dependency.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "tesla",
      "t": "terafab",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "co-funds",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonmarkman/2026/04/10/intel-joins-terafab-to-build-elon-musks-25b-ai-chip-project",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "spacex",
      "t": "terafab",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "co-funds",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonmarkman/2026/04/10/intel-joins-terafab-to-build-elon-musks-25b-ai-chip-project",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "xai",
      "t": "oracle",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "initial cloud partner; $10B GPU deal collapsed",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/xai-to-use-oracle-cloud-infrastructure-to-train-and-run-inferencing-for-grok",
      "note": "xAI then built Colossus itself; Oracle went to OpenAI's $300B Stargate deal.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "spacex",
      "t": "blue_origin",
      "g": "rival",
      "pred": "space / launch / satellite / orbital-AI rivalry",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://fortune.com/2026/07/16/blue-origin-new-stock-options-equity-employees-spacex-competition-jeff-bezos-elon-musk",
      "note": "New Glenn exploded Jul 2026; both chasing orbital AI data centres.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "musk",
      "t": "jeff_bezos",
      "g": "rival",
      "pred": "multi-domain rivalry (space, satellites, orbital AI, politics)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://fortune.com/2026/07/16/blue-origin-new-stock-options-equity-employees-spacex-competition-jeff-bezos-elon-musk",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "musk",
      "t": "alphabet",
      "g": "rival",
      "pred": "decade-long AI-safety rift with Larry Page",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://fortune.com/2026/04/28/elon-musk-larry-page-robots-specieist-trial-sam-altman-open-ai-ceo",
      "note": "Page called Musk a 'specieist'; aired at the OpenAI trial.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "spacex",
      "t": "alphabet",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "Google relies on for satellite launches (close despite rift)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/14/elon-musk-drifted-from-larry-page-but-spacex-google-closer-than-ever.html",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "peter_thiel",
      "t": "meta",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "made the first outside investment in",
      "mag": 500000,
      "magU": "USD, 2004 seed",
      "asof": "2004",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Thiel",
      "note": "The board tenure that used to be bolted onto this predicate is now its own claim, closed at 2022-02. Keeping both here made the graph assert an 18-year board seat as current.",
      "valid_from": "2004",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-08"
    },
    {
      "s": "peter_thiel",
      "t": "meta",
      "g": "legal",
      "pred": "named in $8B shareholder suit (FTC/privacy)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/jul/16/meta-shareholders-sue-zuckerberg-thiel-sandberg-ftc-fines",
      "note": "Shareholders sued Zuckerberg, Thiel & Sandberg.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "palantir",
      "t": "meta",
      "g": "legal",
      "pred": "Cambridge-Analytica data overlap",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/zuckerberg-claims-no-knowledge-palantir-203018215.html",
      "note": "Accused of helping analyse scraped Facebook data.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "peter_thiel",
      "t": "alphabet",
      "g": "legal",
      "pred": "publicly accused Google of 'treasonous' China ties",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2019/08/peter-thiel-google-treason-op-ed",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "palantir",
      "t": "nvidia",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "AI partnership (Mar 2026, government)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-palantir-ai-enterprise-data-intelligence",
      "note": "Fuses Nvidia GPUs with Palantir AIP + Ontology for US agencies.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "palantir",
      "t": "aws",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "Foundry deployed on (tenant on all clouds)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.palantir.com/partnerships/cloud",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "palantir",
      "t": "microsoft_cloud",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "Foundry deployed on",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.palantir.com/partnerships/cloud",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "palantir",
      "t": "google_cloud",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "Foundry deployed on",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.palantir.com/partnerships/cloud",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "palantir",
      "t": "oracle",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "strategic cloud + AI partnership",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://investors.palantir.com/news-details/2024/Oracle-and-Palantir-Join-Forces-to-Deliver-Mission-Critical-AI-Solutions-to-Governments-and-Businesses",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "palantir",
      "t": "anduril",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "defense-AI partnership (AIP + Lattice)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.anduril.com/news/anduril-and-palantir-to-accelerate-ai-capabilities-for-national-security",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "anduril",
      "t": "oracle",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "Lattice hosted on Oracle Cloud",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.oracle.com/news/announcement/ocw24-oracle-and-anduril-industries-partner-to-deliver-ai-powered-defense-solutions-from-the-datacenter-to-the-tactical-edge-2024-09-10",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "foundersfund",
      "t": "palantir",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "Thiel founded; anchor holding",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://foundersfund.com/portfolio",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "palantir",
      "t": "defense_ai_consortium",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "member of",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://responsiblestatecraft.org/defense-tech-partnership",
      "note": "Joint bid for US military AI - rivals converging.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "anduril",
      "t": "defense_ai_consortium",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "member of",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://responsiblestatecraft.org/defense-tech-partnership",
      "note": "Joint bid for US military AI - rivals converging.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "spacex",
      "t": "defense_ai_consortium",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "member of",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://responsiblestatecraft.org/defense-tech-partnership",
      "note": "Joint bid for US military AI - rivals converging.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "openai",
      "t": "defense_ai_consortium",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "member of",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://responsiblestatecraft.org/defense-tech-partnership",
      "note": "Joint bid for US military AI - rivals converging.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "saronic",
      "t": "defense_ai_consortium",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "member of",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://responsiblestatecraft.org/defense-tech-partnership",
      "note": "Joint bid for US military AI - rivals converging.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "scale_ai",
      "t": "defense_ai_consortium",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "member of",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://responsiblestatecraft.org/defense-tech-partnership",
      "note": "Joint bid for US military AI - rivals converging.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "palantir",
      "t": "us_army",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "$10B software/data (2025, largest DoD ever) + TITAN",
      "mag": 10000000000,
      "magU": "$10B",
      "asof": "2025",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/01/palantir-lands-10-billion-army-software-and-data-contract.html",
      "note": "TITAN AI ground stations (up to $1.5B); Maven Smart System targeting. Also Maven Smart System across all services ($1B+ ceiling, separate from TITAN)",
      "valid_from": "2025",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "palantir",
      "t": "dhs",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "#1 federal customer: $470M lifetime + $1B BPA + $86.3M",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "$1B+",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.usaspending.gov/recipient/1ea8a9a4-3726-3491-9040-66950bb67606-P/all",
      "note": "ImmigrationOS pipeline for ICE.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "palantir",
      "t": "nato",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "Maven Smart System deployment (Mar 2025)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2025-03",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.escudodigital.com/en/defense/europe/palantir-embeds-across-european-militaries-nato-germany-holds-back.html",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2025-03",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "palantir",
      "t": "anthropic",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "runs Claude on classified networks (via AIP)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.anthropic.com/news/anthropic-and-the-department-of-defense-to-advance-responsible-ai-in-defense-operations",
      "note": "First frontier model on classified defense networks - deployed through Palantir AIP.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "spacex",
      "t": "nasa",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "$2.89B Human Landing System (Artemis) + Commercial Crew",
      "mag": 2890000000,
      "magU": "$2.89B",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/spacex-wins-2-9-billion-contract-to-build-moon-lander-for-nasas-artemis-program",
      "note": "Won HLS over Blue Origin.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "spacex",
      "t": "space_force",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "Starshield ~$6.5B + $5.9B launch (5-yr)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "~$12B",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://spacenews.com/spacex-wins-2-29-billion-space-force-contract-for-military-data-network",
      "note": "Military Starlink + missile-detection satellites. Also SB-AMTI sensor-to-shooter targeting network",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "spacex",
      "t": "nro",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "building classified spy-satellite network (Starshield)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.reuters.com/technology/space/musks-spacex-is-building-spy-satellite-network-us-intelligence-agency-sources-2024-03-16",
      "note": "Hundreds of satellites; NROL launches - classified, outside the $22B public total.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "spacex",
      "t": "us_defense",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "in talks to supply Pentagon billions in AI compute (Jul 2026)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/spacex-in-talks-to-provide-computing-power-for-pentagons-ai-push-15e752e4",
      "note": "Would put SpaceXAI in the same military-AI-compute arena as Oracle/OpenAI.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "openai",
      "t": "us_cdao",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "$200M Pentagon CDAO contract (Jun 2025); 'OpenAI for Government'",
      "mag": 200000000,
      "magU": "$200M",
      "asof": "2025-06",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.reuters.com/world/us/openai-wins-200-million-us-defense-contract-2025-06-16",
      "note": "Prototype OTA for frontier AI; red lines on weapons/surveillance.",
      "valid_from": "2025-06",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "openai",
      "t": "anduril",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "military-AI integration partnership",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.nextgov.com/acquisition/2025/07/pentagon-awards-multiple-companies-200m-contracts-ai-tools/406698",
      "note": "Integrating OpenAI models into Anduril's autonomous systems.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "openai",
      "t": "white_house",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "'Project Daybreak' - govt AI access gated by White House",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/17/white-house-ai-access-anthropic-openai.html",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "anthropic",
      "t": "us_cdao",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "$200M DoD contract (Jul 2025) - first frontier model on classified nets",
      "mag": 200000000,
      "magU": "$200M",
      "asof": "2025-07",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.npr.org/2026/02/27/nx-s1-5729118/trump-anthropic-pentagon-openai-ai-weapons-ban",
      "note": "Two-year prototype OTA; then banned Feb 2026.",
      "valid_from": "2025-07",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "us_gov",
      "t": "anthropic",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "BANNED from federal use (Feb 2026)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.npr.org/2026/02/27/nx-s1-5729118/trump-anthropic-pentagon-openai-ai-weapons-ban",
      "note": "Trump ordered agencies + DoD to stop using Claude ('supply chain risk'); a 'conscience clause' dispute. Anthropic calls it 'legally unsound' + political retaliation.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "anthropic",
      "t": "white_house",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "'Project Glasswing' - govt AI access gated by White House",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/17/white-house-ai-access-anthropic-openai.html",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "amazon",
      "t": "us_gov",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "AWS Secret Cloud for classified workloads ($1B IC credits)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.nextgov.com/acquisition/2026/06/aws-launches-secret-cloud-industrys-classified-workloads/414548",
      "note": "Northrop Grumman first adopter.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "openai",
      "t": "us_gov",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "ChatGPT Gov + removed military-use ban (2024) + lobbying",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2024",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://openai.com/global-affairs/introducing-chatgpt-gov",
      "note": "90k+ federal users; GSA $1/agency; dropped the 'military & warfare' prohibition; lobbying rose ~7x to $1.76M (2024). Federal lobbying rose to $2.99M in 2025 (22 lobbyists)",
      "valid_from": "2024",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "anduril",
      "t": "palantir",
      "g": "talent",
      "pred": "founded by ex-Palantir ('Palantir Mafia')",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.businessinsider.com/palantir-mafia-former-employees-startups-anduril-2025-3",
      "note": "Trae Stephens, Matt Grimm, Brian Schimpf - chains OpenAI->Anduril->Palantir->IC.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "anthropic",
      "t": "uk_gov",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "MOU with UK DSIT + UK AISI safety testing",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/memorandum-of-understanding-between-the-uk-and-anthropic-on-ai-opportunities/memorandum-of-understanding-between-the-uk-and-anthropic-on-ai-opportunities",
      "note": "Priority frontier-model access to the UK AI Safety Institute after the US Pentagon exit.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "alphabet",
      "t": "us_defense",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "Pentagon AI signatory (military AI use)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://abc7.com/post/pentagon-reaches-deals-7-tech-companies-allowing-us-military-use-ai-help-fight-wars/19016125",
      "note": "One of 7 firms (with OpenAI, SpaceX) cleared to supply the US military AI to 'help fight wars'.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "microsoft",
      "t": "us_defense",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "Pentagon AI signatory (military AI use)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://abc7.com/post/pentagon-reaches-deals-7-tech-companies-allowing-us-military-use-ai-help-fight-wars/19016125",
      "note": "One of 7 firms (with OpenAI, SpaceX) cleared to supply the US military AI to 'help fight wars'.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "amazon",
      "t": "us_defense",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "Pentagon AI signatory (military AI use)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://abc7.com/post/pentagon-reaches-deals-7-tech-companies-allowing-us-military-use-ai-help-fight-wars/19016125",
      "note": "One of 7 firms (with OpenAI, SpaceX) cleared to supply the US military AI to 'help fight wars'. JWCC prime: 80+ task orders, $600M+ by 2024",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "nvidia",
      "t": "us_defense",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "Pentagon AI signatory (military AI use)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://abc7.com/post/pentagon-reaches-deals-7-tech-companies-allowing-us-military-use-ai-help-fight-wars/19016125",
      "note": "One of 7 firms (with OpenAI, SpaceX) cleared to supply the US military AI to 'help fight wars'.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "oracle",
      "t": "us_defense",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "Pentagon AI signatory (military AI use)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://abc7.com/post/pentagon-reaches-deals-7-tech-companies-allowing-us-military-use-ai-help-fight-wars/19016125",
      "note": "One of 7 firms (with OpenAI, SpaceX) cleared to supply the US military AI to 'help fight wars'.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "palantir",
      "t": "us_ic",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "Gotham platform for CIA / NSA",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.palantir.com/platforms/gotham/",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "microsoft",
      "t": "us_army",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "$21.9B IVAS AR headsets (2021)",
      "mag": 21900000000,
      "magU": "$21.9B",
      "asof": "2021",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.reuters.com/article/technology/microsoft-wins-219-billion-contract-with-us-army-to-supply-augmented-reality-idUSKBN2BN36B",
      "note": "Later handed to Anduril.",
      "valid_from": "2021",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "anduril",
      "t": "us_army",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "took over Microsoft's $22B IVAS program (Feb 2025)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2025-02",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://news.microsoft.com/source/2025/02/11/anduril-and-microsoft-partner-to-advance-integrated-visual-augmentation-system-ivas-program-for-the-u-s-army",
      "note": "Chains Microsoft -> Anduril -> Thiel (Founders Fund $1B).",
      "valid_from": "2025-02",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "microsoft",
      "t": "anduril",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "partnered on the IVAS transition",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://news.microsoft.com/source/2025/02/11/anduril-and-microsoft-partner-to-advance-integrated-visual-augmentation-system-ivas-program-for-the-u-s-army",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "microsoft",
      "t": "g42",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "$1.5B in G42 + $15.2B UAE AI plan",
      "mag": 1500000000,
      "magU": "$1.5B",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://blogs.microsoft.com/on-the-issues/2025/11/03/microsofts-15-2-billion-usd-investment-in-the-uae",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "amazon",
      "t": "us_ic",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "NSA $10B cloud ('WildandStormy')",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.defenseone.com/defense-systems/2025/07/pentagon-will-open-door-more-companies-next-major-cloud-contract/406994",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "meta",
      "t": "us_defense",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "opened Llama to US national-security use (Nov 2024)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2024-11",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2024/nov/05/meta-allows-national-security-defense-contractors-use-llama-ai",
      "note": "Reversed prior military restrictions.",
      "valid_from": "2024-11",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "scale_ai",
      "t": "meta",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "built 'Defense Llama' (Llama fine-tuned for defense)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://scale.com/blog/defense-llama",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "lockheed",
      "t": "meta",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "uses Llama for USAF/Navy pilot training & sim",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://about.fb.com/news/2025/09/meta-supporting-us-national-security-with-ai",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "alphabet",
      "t": "uk_gov",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "MOU + UK AISI safety partnership (Google DeepMind)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/memorandum-of-understanding-between-the-uk-and-google-deepmind-on-ai-opportunities-and-security",
      "note": "Priority frontier-model access for testing.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "humain",
      "t": "xai",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "invested $3B in ($20B Series E, Feb 2026)",
      "mag": 3000000000,
      "magU": "$3B",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://fortune.com/2026/06/09/gulf-states-betting-big-on-ai-investment",
      "note": "Just before the SpaceX merger.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "saudi_aramco",
      "t": "humain",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "PIF backs",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://fortune.com/2026/06/09/gulf-states-betting-big-on-ai-investment",
      "note": "Saudi sovereign AI vehicle.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "saudi_aramco",
      "t": "openai",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "investment discussions with",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://journals.law.harvard.edu/hblr/wp-content/uploads/sites/87/2025/05/05_HLB_15-1_Online_Schwartz-1.pdf",
      "note": "Gulf AI strategy.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "g42",
      "t": "microsoft",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "sovereign-AI partnership (UAE data residency)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.thenationalnews.com/future/technology/2026/07/06/g42-and-microsoft-deepen-partnership-to-keep-sensitive-ai-data-inside-the-uae",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "tii",
      "t": "g42",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "UAE sovereign-AI ecosystem (Falcon LLM)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.uaepreferred.com/ai-story",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "us_gov",
      "t": "alibaba",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "export controls: banned Nvidia A100+ (Oct 2022)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2022-10",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.cfr.org/articles/chinas-ai-chip-deficit-why-huawei-cant-catch-nvidia-and-us-export-controls-should-remain",
      "note": "Forced Alibaba's $52.5B domestic AI push + Zhenwu chips.",
      "valid_from": "2022-10",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "damo_academy",
      "t": "openai",
      "g": "rival",
      "pred": "M6 / Qwen parallels GPT development",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.cfr.org/articles/tracking-race-develop-generative-ai-technologies-china",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "damo_academy",
      "t": "alphabet",
      "g": "rival",
      "pred": "competes with DeepMind in AI research",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.scmp.com/tech/big-tech/article/3223829/alibaba-reveals-progress-large-language-model-research-chinese-big-tech-firms-continue-push-chatgpt",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "alibaba",
      "t": "anthropic",
      "g": "rival",
      "pred": "banned internal use of Anthropic tools (security)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": null,
      "note": "Deepens US-China AI split.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "alibaba",
      "t": "microsoft",
      "g": "rival",
      "pred": "cloud + China-AI competitor",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/most-obvious-ai-company-nobodys-165000400.html",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "alibaba",
      "t": "google_cloud",
      "g": "rival",
      "pred": "cloud competitor (APAC vs GCP)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://cloudinsight.cc/en/blog/cloud-platform-comparison",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "supermicro",
      "t": "colossus1",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "built the 100k-GPU cluster",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.supermicro.com/CaseStudies/Success_Story_xAI_Colossus_Cluster.pdf",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "nvidia",
      "t": "colossus2",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "Spectrum-X Ethernet networking for",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/spectrum-x-ethernet-networking-xai-colossus",
      "note": "World's largest AI supercomputer.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "xai",
      "t": "tesla",
      "g": "talent",
      "pred": "employs ~40 ex-Tesla (Autopilot) engineers",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.businessinsider.com/xai-poached-dozen-meta-employees-ai-talent-war-2025-8",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "neuralink",
      "t": "synchron",
      "g": "rival",
      "pred": "BCI rival (invasive vs vein-threaded)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://paradromics.com/insights/neuralink-competitors",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "neuralink",
      "t": "paradromics",
      "g": "rival",
      "pred": "BCI rival (durability / data rate)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://paradromics.com/insights/neuralink-competitors",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "neuralink",
      "t": "meta",
      "g": "rival",
      "pred": "vs Meta Reality Labs Neural Band (non-invasive)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.hackster.io/news/meta-shows-off-its-promised-mind-reading-wristband-after-canceling-its-brain-computer-interface-de62076fe61b",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "xai",
      "t": "openai",
      "g": "rival",
      "pred": "Grok competes with ChatGPT",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/jury-throws-out-musks-lawsuit-against-openai-and-sam-altman",
      "note": "Grok 4.5 vs GPT-5.5.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "xai",
      "t": "anthropic",
      "g": "rival",
      "pred": "Grok competes with Claude",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.bleap.finance/en-us/blog/grok-4-5-explained",
      "note": "Coding/reasoning benchmarks.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "musk",
      "t": "zuckerberg",
      "g": "rival",
      "pred": "personal + AI rivalry",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/musk-poaches-14-meta-ai-174235265.html",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "meta",
      "t": "openai",
      "g": "talent",
      "pred": "poached ~7 OpenAI researchers (high comp)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://medium.com/swlh/openai-just-silently-poached-4-key-engineers-from-tesla-xai-and-meta-c63fd928a87a",
      "note": "Zuckerberg's opening salvo in the 2025 talent war.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "foundersfund",
      "t": "a16z",
      "g": "rival",
      "pred": "competing top-tier AI VCs",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/andreessen-horowitz-raises-15-billion-across-five-funds-tech-startup-investments-2026-01-09",
      "note": "a16z raised $15B (2026) vs Founders Fund $6B.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "peter_thiel",
      "t": "meta",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "was a board member of",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2022-02",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/sanfrancisco/news/palantir-peter-thiel-employee-links-cambridge-analytica",
      "note": "Joined the board in 2005, stepped down February 2022.",
      "valid_from": "2005",
      "valid_to": "2022-02",
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-08"
    },
    {
      "s": "humain",
      "t": "nvidia",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "GPU customer: 18k GB300 -> up to 600k GPUs / 500MW AI factories",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "up to 600k GPUs",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/humain-and-nvidia-announce-strategic-partnership-to-build-ai-factories-of-the-future-in-saudi-arabia",
      "note": "Strategic partnership (Aug 2025); ~240k GPUs through 2028, up to 600k over three years.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "humain",
      "t": "amd",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "JV (with Cisco) for 1GW AI infra (AMD MI450)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "1GW",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/amd-cisco-and-humain-set-up-jv-for-1gw-of-ai-infrastructure-in-saudi-arabia/",
      "note": "Nov 2025; Phase 1 100MW.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "humain",
      "t": "cisco",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "JV for AI infrastructure",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/amd-cisco-and-humain-set-up-jv-for-1gw-of-ai-infrastructure-in-saudi-arabia/",
      "note": "With AMD.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "humain",
      "t": "aws",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "$5B AI Zone (150k accelerators: GB300 + Trainium)",
      "mag": 5000000000,
      "magU": "$5B",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://aibusiness.com/data-centers/aws-humain-expand-partnership-saudi-ai-infrastructure",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "humain",
      "t": "groq",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "$1.5B inference-capacity build (Dammam)",
      "mag": 1500000000,
      "magU": "$1.5B",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.crnasia.com/news/2025/artificial-intelligence/humain-taps-nvidia",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "humain",
      "t": "qualcomm",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "semiconductor design-centre partnership",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.crnasia.com/news/2025/artificial-intelligence/humain-taps-nvidia",
      "note": "Nurturing a domestic Saudi chip ecosystem.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "nvidia",
      "t": "microsoft",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "primary Azure GPU partner (Blackwell/Rubin at scale)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://blogs.microsoft.com/blog/2026/03/16/microsoft-at-nvidia-gtc-new-solutions-for-microsoft-foundry-azure-ai-infrastructure-and-physical-ai",
      "note": "Co-invested with Microsoft in Anthropic ($10B + $5B).",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "nvidia",
      "t": "amazon",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "supplies 1M+ Blackwell/Rubin GPUs to",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://aws.amazon.com/blogs/machine-learning/aws-and-nvidia-deepen-strategic-collaboration-to-accelerate-ai-from-pilot-to-production",
      "note": "Supplier-competitor: AWS also builds Trainium2 as a ~30% cheaper alternative.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "nvidia",
      "t": "google_cloud",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "GPU supplier; competes with Google's TPU",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/nvidia-google-cloud-ai-development",
      "note": "First confidential-computing Blackwell in cloud; DeepMind Gemma optimisation - vs Trillium TPU.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "meta",
      "t": "microsoft",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "Llama models on Azure AI Foundry",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://techcommunity.microsoft.com/blog/azure-ai-foundry-blog/azure-ai-foundry-models-futureproof-your-genai-applications/4414904",
      "note": "Commercial partnership amid broader rivalry.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "sam_altman",
      "t": "us_gov",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "testified to Senate on AI regulation (2023, 2025)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2023",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.judiciary.senate.gov/download/2023-05-16-testimony-altman",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2023",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "musk",
      "t": "sam_altman",
      "g": "legal",
      "pred": "co-founded OpenAI with, then sued; jury for Altman (May 2026)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Musk_v._Altman",
      "note": "Close friends 2015 -> soured 2018 -> 2024 suit -> statute-barred 2026.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "peter_thiel",
      "t": "sam_altman",
      "g": "talent",
      "pred": "YC mentor; backed OpenAI via Founders Fund; sided with him vs Musk",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/the-real-story-behind-sam-altman-firing-from-openai-efd51a5d",
      "note": "Parted over politics (2017) but backed Altman in the OpenAI dispute.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "musk",
      "t": "jensen_huang",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "personally lobbied for GPU priority from",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://fortune.com/2024/09/16/larry-ellison-elon-musk-begged-nvidias-jensen-huang-more-gpus-fancy-sushi-dinner",
      "note": "Ellison: he and Musk 'begged' Huang for more GPUs over dinner.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "xai",
      "t": "openai",
      "g": "legal",
      "pred": "trade-secret suit dismissed with prejudice (Jun 2026)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/openai-wins-dismissal-trade-secret-lawsuit-by-musks-xai-2026-06-15",
      "note": "Musk's 2nd legal loss to OpenAI in four weeks.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "openai",
      "t": "alibaba",
      "g": "legal",
      "pred": "accuses of data extraction (with Anthropic)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/06/business/alibaba-ai-qwen.html",
      "note": "Alleged improper harvesting of US models to train Qwen.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "alibaba",
      "t": "deepseek",
      "g": "rival",
      "pred": "competes for talent + enterprise AI customers",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-restricts-overseas-travel-top-ai-talent-alibaba-deepseek-bloomberg-news-2026-05-26",
      "note": "Both hit by China's overseas-travel curbs on top AI talent.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "spacex",
      "t": "humain",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "IPO anchor-stake talks (~$5B) with Saudi PIF",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "~$5B",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/spacex-has-held-talks-with-saudi-fund-possible-5-billion-investment-ipo-sources-2026-04-02",
      "note": "Separate from xAI's $3B HUMAIN investment - a dual Saudi<->Musk capital flow.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "oracle",
      "t": "us_air_force",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "$88M Cloud One (AI Database 26ai + OCI)",
      "mag": 88000000,
      "magU": "$88M",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.washingtontechnology.com/contracts/2026/02/oracle-books-88m-air-force-cloud-one-contract/411358",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "lockheed",
      "t": "us_air_force",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "Llama-based pilot training & simulation for",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://about.fb.com/news/2025/09/meta-supporting-us-national-security-with-ai",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "baidu",
      "t": "nvidia",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "is GPU customer of",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/baidu-nvidia-partnership/",
      "note": "Uses Nvidia GPUs for training/inference; PaddlePaddle framework co-optimised for Nvidia hardware.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "baidu",
      "t": "apple",
      "g": "data",
      "pred": "supplies Ernie models for Apple Intelligence in China",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/17/apple-intelligence-approved-for-launch-in-china-with-alibaba-and-baidu-partnership.html",
      "note": "Apple Intelligence in China uses a dual-partner (Alibaba + Baidu) structure, replacing Western models.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "baidu",
      "t": "waymo",
      "g": "rival",
      "pred": "overtook in the global robotaxi index (Apollo Go)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "3.2M rides Q1",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.a-weekly.ai/ai/baidu-apollo-go-tops-waymo-in-new-global-robotaxi-index",
      "note": "Apollo Go scored 81.7 vs Waymo #2; 3.2M driverless rides in Q1 2026; expanding to Kazakhstan.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "baidu",
      "t": "tesla",
      "g": "rival",
      "pred": "outranks in robotaxi deployment",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.a-weekly.ai/ai/baidu-apollo-go-tops-waymo-in-new-global-robotaxi-index",
      "note": "Apollo Go #1 globally, Tesla #5; Tesla FSD still awaiting China regulatory approval.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "baidu",
      "t": "deepseek",
      "g": "rival",
      "pred": "competes with via Ernie X1 (half the price of R1)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/17/china-biggest-ai-drop-since-deepseek-baidu-open-ernie.html",
      "note": "Baidu open-sourced ERNIE 4.5 and released Ernie X1 as a low-cost DeepSeek-R1 rival.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "baidu",
      "t": "kunlunxin",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "spun off AI-chip unit",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "~$50bn IPO target",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/17/baidu-is-major-ai-chip-player-in-china-to-fill-nvidia-gap.html",
      "note": "Kunlunxin's targeted HK IPO valuation exceeds Baidu's own market cap.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "robin_li",
      "t": "baidu",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "is CEO of",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/17/china-biggest-ai-drop-since-deepseek-baidu-open-ernie.html",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "chinese_gov",
      "t": "baidu",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "restricts overseas travel of its top AI talent",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-restricts-overseas-travel-top-ai-talent-alibaba-deepseek-bloomberg-news-2026-05-26/",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "tencent",
      "t": "nvidia",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "cleared to buy H200 GPUs from",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "$5bn+ 2026 capex",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/us-clears-h200-chip-sales-10-china-firms-nvidia-ceo-looks-breakthrough-2026-05-14/",
      "note": "Part of a US-cleared 400K+ H200 sale to 10 Chinese firms; Tencent pledged to more than double AI spend to $5bn+ in 2026.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "yao_shunyu",
      "t": "tencent",
      "g": "talent",
      "pred": "is chief AI scientist at",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2025-12",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.scmp.com/tech/big-tech/article/3336811/tencent-restructures-ai-operations-promotes-high-profile-recruit-chief-ai-scientist",
      "note": "Announced 17 December 2025. Reports to president Martin Lau in the CEO's office and heads the TEG large-model and AI infrastructure departments.",
      "valid_from": "2025-12",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-08"
    },
    {
      "s": "yao_shunyu",
      "t": "openai",
      "g": "talent",
      "pred": "was a researcher at",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2025",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.caixinglobal.com/2026-01-27/in-depth-tencent-bets-its-ai-future-on-28-year-old-from-openai-102408553.html",
      "note": "Joined August 2024 and left in 2025 for Tencent. Departure month is not published, so the close is year-precision.",
      "valid_from": "2024-08",
      "valid_to": "2025",
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-08"
    },
    {
      "s": "tencent",
      "t": "moonshot_ai",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "co-invested in",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://techcrunch.com/2026/02/03/chinas-moonshot-ai-raises-2b-at-20b-valuation/",
      "note": "Tencent invests alongside Alibaba and 5Y Capital.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "tencent",
      "t": "minimax",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "invested in",
      "mag": 250000000.0,
      "magU": "$250m",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.dealroom.co/companies/minimax-ai",
      "note": "Tencent invested $250m at a $1.2bn valuation in an earlier round.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "tencent",
      "t": "zhipu",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "co-invested in",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Z.ai",
      "note": "Tencent co-invests with Alibaba in Zhipu / Z.ai ($4bn HK share sale).",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "tencent",
      "t": "huawei",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "orders Ascend 950PR chips from",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.reuters.com/technology/big-chinese-tech-firms-scramble-secure-huawei-ai-chips-after-deepseek-v4-2026-06-15/",
      "note": "Ordered after DeepSeek V4 proved Ascend viability for frontier training.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "bytedance",
      "t": "huawei",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "orders Ascend 950PR chips from",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/20/bytedance-alibaba-planning-to-order-huaweis-new-ai-chip.html",
      "note": "The 950PR is more CUDA-compatible, easing the transition off Nvidia.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "bytedance",
      "t": "oracle",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "sold TikTok US operations into a JV with",
      "mag": 14000000000.0,
      "magU": "$14bn JV",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.politico.com/news/2026/01/22/tiktok-lands-14b-deal-to-avoid-us-ban-00004738",
      "note": "Jan-2026 deal: Oracle / Silver Lake / MGX hold 15% each; ByteDance retains 19.9%.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "tiktok",
      "t": "oracle",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "hosts US user data on",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TikTok_USDS",
      "note": "TikTok USDS runs on Oracle cloud as part of the US restructuring.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "bytedance",
      "t": "microsoft",
      "g": "rival",
      "pred": "rejected a TikTok acquisition bid from",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efforts_to_ban_TikTok_in_the_United_States",
      "note": "ByteDance rebuffed Microsoft's 2020 offer; Oracle prevailed in the 2026 deal.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "huawei",
      "t": "alibaba",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "supplies Ascend chips to",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/20/bytedance-alibaba-planning-to-order-huaweis-new-ai-chip.html",
      "note": "Alibaba ordering Ascend 950PR in volume to supplement/replace Nvidia.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "deepseek",
      "t": "huawei",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "trains V4 entirely on Ascend chips from",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Ascend 950PR - V4, Apr 2026",
      "asof": "2026-04",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.reuters.com/technology/big-chinese-tech-firms-scramble-secure-huawei-ai-chips-after-deepseek-v4-2026-06-15/",
      "note": "Landmark: a frontier model trained without Nvidia; triggered an Ascend order surge.",
      "valid_from": "2026-04",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "huawei",
      "t": "nvidia",
      "g": "rival",
      "pred": "is displacing in China's AI-chip market",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.reuters.com/technology/nvidia-says-largely-conceded-china-ai-chip-market-huawei-2026-06-01/",
      "note": "Jensen Huang: Nvidia has 'largely conceded' China to Huawei; Ascend 5-12x cheaper where available.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "chinese_gov",
      "t": "huawei",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "anchors its $295bn state AI plan on",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "$295bn plan",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.reuters.com/technology/china-prepares-295-billion-plan-fund-nationwide-ai-computing-network-2026-07-10/",
      "note": "State firms must source 80%+ of AI tech domestically; ~1.35M Ascend chips planned for 2026.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "us_gov",
      "t": "huawei",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "sanctioned (Entity List, 2019)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2019",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.bis.doc.gov/index.php/policy-guidance/lists-of-parties-of-concern/entity-list",
      "note": "Blocked from advanced chips, EDA tools and chipmaking equipment - forcing the self-sufficient Ascend line.",
      "valid_from": "2019",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "high_flyer",
      "t": "deepseek",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "spun off",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepSeek",
      "note": "DeepSeek founded July 2023 out of High-Flyer; sole backer until the 2026 external round.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "deepseek",
      "t": "openai",
      "g": "rival",
      "pred": "shocked US frontier pricing with R1",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonathanponciano/2026/07/01/deepseek-just-raised-7-4-billion-heres-the-catch/",
      "note": "R1 (Jan 2025) matched US frontier models at a fraction of the cost; triggered a $1tn+ Nasdaq selloff.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "chinese_gov",
      "t": "deepseek",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "restricts overseas travel of its top AI talent",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-restricts-overseas-travel-top-ai-talent-alibaba-deepseek-bloomberg-news-2026-05-26/",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "zhipu",
      "t": "tsinghua_keg",
      "g": "talent",
      "pred": "spun out of",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Z.ai",
      "note": "Founded 2019 by Tsinghua professors Tang Jie and Li Juanzi.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "zhipu",
      "t": "chinese_gov",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "supplies GLM models to government customers of",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Z.ai",
      "note": "MaaS ARR reached 1.7bn yuan by Mar 2026; sells to Chinese and foreign governments.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "alibaba",
      "t": "moonshot_ai",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "led a funding round in",
      "mag": 700000000.0,
      "magU": "$700m round",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://techcrunch.com/2026/02/03/chinas-moonshot-ai-raises-2b-at-20b-valuation/",
      "note": "Alibaba led a $700m round; Moonshot raised $2.5bn total at a $20bn valuation.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "alibaba",
      "t": "minimax",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "led a funding round in",
      "mag": 600000000.0,
      "magU": "$600m round",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MiniMax_Group",
      "note": "Alibaba led a $600m round at a $2.5bn valuation.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "kai_fu_lee",
      "t": "zeroone_ai",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "founded",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kai-Fu_Lee",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "zeroone_ai",
      "t": "chinese_gov",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "provides sovereign AI to",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "1.5bn yuan 2026",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://hellochina.tech/01-ai-pivots-to-sovereign-ai-kai-fu-lees-government-play/",
      "note": "Pivoted from the model race to government sovereign-AI; positioned as China's Palantir.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "kai_fu_lee",
      "t": "alphabet",
      "g": "talent",
      "pred": "was founding president of Google China at",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2009",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kai-Fu_Lee",
      "note": "Led Google China from 2005 until leaving in 2009 to found Innovation Works.",
      "valid_from": "2005",
      "valid_to": "2009",
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-08"
    },
    {
      "s": "kai_fu_lee",
      "t": "microsoft",
      "g": "talent",
      "pred": "founded Microsoft Research Asia at",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kai-Fu_Lee",
      "note": "MSR Asia became a global talent pipeline feeding OpenAI, Tencent and others.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "us_gov",
      "t": "iflytek",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "sanctioned",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.reuters.com/technology/iflytek-redirects-337-million-boost-domestic-ai-computing-amid-us-sanctions-2026-06-01/",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "iflytek",
      "t": "huawei",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "shifts $337m of compute to Ascend at",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "$337m shift",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.reuters.com/technology/iflytek-redirects-337-million-boost-domestic-ai-computing-amid-us-sanctions-2026-06-01/",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "iflytek",
      "t": "chinese_gov",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "holds education / smart-city contracts with",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IFLYTEK",
      "note": "Spark LLM powers government education and public-service AI; 60%+ speech-recognition share.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "us_gov",
      "t": "sensetime",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "sanctioned (Xinjiang, 2019)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2019",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SenseTime",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2019",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "sensetime",
      "t": "huawei",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "allies under US sanctions with",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/05/sensetime-among-chinese-ai-companies-allying-amid-us-sanctions.html",
      "note": "Both US-sanctioned; sharing tech and shifting to open models and domestic chips.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "sensetime",
      "t": "chinese_gov",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "supplies surveillance / computer-vision AI to",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/05/a-sanctioned-chinese-firm-says-cheaper-models-can-still-win.html",
      "note": "SenseNova U1 competes on cost-efficiency despite sanctions.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "sensetime",
      "t": "south_korea_gov",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "courts AI cooperation with",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.sensetime.com/en/news",
      "note": "CEO Xu Li met South Korea's PM to discuss AI development cooperation.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "cac",
      "t": "alibaba",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "regulates (model registration) at",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.rimonlaw.com/china-ai-regulatory-developments-july-2026",
      "note": "All generative models incl. Qwen must be registered and comply with content rules.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "cac",
      "t": "baidu",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "regulates Ernie Bot at",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.opsintel.com/chinas-ai-compliance-roadmap-2025-2026",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "cac",
      "t": "bytedance",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "regulates Doubao / Seed at",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.rimonlaw.com/china-ai-regulatory-developments-july-2026",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "chinese_gov",
      "t": "alibaba",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "restricts overseas travel of its top AI talent",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-restricts-overseas-travel-top-ai-talent-alibaba-deepseek-bloomberg-news-2026-05-26/",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "us_gov",
      "t": "alibaba",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "limits AI-chip exports to",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/us-clears-h200-chip-sales-10-china-firms-nvidia-ceo-looks-breakthrough-2026-05-14/",
      "note": "Only downgraded H200 cleared - not H100/B200.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "us_gov",
      "t": "tencent",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "limits AI-chip exports to",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/us-clears-h200-chip-sales-10-china-firms-nvidia-ceo-looks-breakthrough-2026-05-14/",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "us_gov",
      "t": "bytedance",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "limits AI-chip exports to",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.scmp.com/tech/big-tech/article/3298606/bytedance-pour-us14-billion-nvidia-chips-2026",
      "note": "Still plans $14bn Nvidia spend via approved H200 and a Malaysia-routed B200 deal.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "chinese_gov",
      "t": "lockheed",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "counter-sanctioned (barred from PRC procurement)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.kharon.com/news/chinas-new-sanctions-arsenal-is-challenging-the-us",
      "note": "Among 46 US defense contractors barred in retaliation for US tech sanctions.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "chinese_gov",
      "t": "anduril",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "counter-sanctioned (export-control list)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.kharon.com/news/chinas-new-sanctions-arsenal-is-challenging-the-us",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "chinese_gov",
      "t": "saudi_gov",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "deepens AI & space cooperation with",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/saudi-arabia-deepens-tech-partnership-china-advance-ai-space-cooperation-2026-06-20/",
      "note": "Supports Saudi Vision 2030 AI ambitions with Chinese technology.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "ustc",
      "t": "chinese_gov",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "state-backed quantum programme; Zuchongzhi 3.0 claimed quantum advantage",
      "mag": 105,
      "magU": "105-qubit Zuchongzhi 3.0",
      "asof": "2025-03",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://english.cas.cn/head/202503/t20250305_903086.shtml",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2025-03",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "ustc",
      "t": "pan_jianwei",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "quantum programme led by",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Pan Jianwei (team lead)",
      "asof": "2025-03",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://en.ustc.edu.cn/info/1007/5015.htm",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2025-03",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "ustc",
      "t": "google_quantum",
      "g": "rival",
      "pred": "Zuchongzhi 3.0 (105q) vs Willow (105q) — competing quantum-advantage claims",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "105q vs 105q",
      "asof": "2025-03",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://link.aps.org/doi/10.1103/PhysRevLett.134.090601",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2025-03",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "origin_quantum",
      "t": "chinese_gov",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "state-aligned domestic superconducting QC + national cloud",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "fully domestic stack",
      "asof": "2026-05",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202605/1360606.shtml",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026-05",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "origin_quantum",
      "t": "ibm_quantum",
      "g": "rival",
      "pred": "China's commercial answer: Origin Wukong-180 (180q) vs IBM/Google superconducting QC",
      "mag": 180,
      "magU": "180-qubit Wukong-180",
      "asof": "2026-05",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://thequantuminsider.com/2026/05/15/origin-quantum-wukong-180/",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026-05",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "softbank",
      "t": "arm",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "controls ~90% of Arm Holdings — its AI crown jewel",
      "mag": 90,
      "magU": "~90% owned",
      "asof": "2025",
      "disc": "filed",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://group.softbank/en/ir/financials/annual_reports/2025/message/arm",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2025",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "softbank",
      "t": "masayoshi_son",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "founded, chaired and led by",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Founder / Chairman / CEO",
      "asof": "2025",
      "disc": "filed",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://group.softbank/en/ir/financials/annual_reports/2025/message/arm",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2025",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "softbank",
      "t": "intel",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "took a $2bn stake (~2%, 5th-largest holder) at $23/share",
      "mag": 2,
      "magU": "$2bn / ~2%",
      "asof": "2025-08",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://group.softbank/en/news/press/20250819",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2025-08",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "softbank",
      "t": "ampere",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "acquired for $6.5bn — Arm-based AI server chips",
      "mag": 6.5,
      "magU": "$6.5bn acquisition",
      "asof": "2025-11",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-26/softbank-completes-acquisition-of-chipmaker-ampere-computing",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2025-11",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "softbank",
      "t": "nvidia",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "exited — sold its entire $5.83bn stake to fund OpenAI + Ampere",
      "mag": 5.83,
      "magU": "sold $5.83bn (Nov 2025)",
      "asof": "2025-11",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/11/softbank-sells-its-entire-stake-in-nvidia-for-5point83-billion.html",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2025-11",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "ampere",
      "t": "arm",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "designs Arm-based server / AI CPUs on",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Arm compute platform",
      "asof": "2025",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://amperecomputing.com/press/softbank-group-to-acquire-ampere-computing",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2025",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "amd",
      "t": "anthropic",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "supplies compute to (up to 2GW MI450)",
      "mag": 2000000000,
      "magU": "up to 2GW MI450 - first 1GW H1 2027",
      "asof": "2026-07",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://ir.amd.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1292/amd-and-anthropic-announce-strategic-partnership-to-deploy-up-to-2-gigawatts-of-amd-instinct-mi450-series-gpus",
      "note": "First non-Nvidia frontier-scale training commitment for Anthropic. Helios racks (MI455X + EPYC Venice). Announced commitment; capacity phases from H1 2027.",
      "valid_from": "2026-07",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "amd",
      "t": "anthropic",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "invests up to $5bn in",
      "mag": 5000000000,
      "magU": "up to $5bn (milestone-tied)",
      "asof": "2026-07",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/22/amd-anthropic-ai-chip-investment.html",
      "note": "AMD's first equity position in Anthropic. Committed, milestone-gated - not yet closed.",
      "valid_from": "2026-07",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "amd",
      "t": "anthropic",
      "g": "loop",
      "pred": "circular: invests up to $5B -> Anthropic buys AMD MI450 GPUs",
      "mag": 5000000000,
      "magU": "$5bn equity <-> ~2GW hardware",
      "asof": "2026-07",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://ir.amd.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1292/amd-and-anthropic-announce-strategic-partnership-to-deploy-up-to-2-gigawatts-of-amd-instinct-mi450-series-gpus",
      "note": "14th circular loop in the cohort and the first Nvidia-independent one at frontier scale.",
      "valid_from": "2026-07",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "anthropic",
      "t": "sec",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "filed confidential draft S-1 with (1 Jun 2026)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "IPO process underway; ~$1T discussed (not set)",
      "asof": "2026-06",
      "disc": "filed",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.anthropic.com/news/confidential-draft-s1-sec",
      "note": "First frontier lab heading to a public listing (Nasdaq/NYSE as early as Oct 2026). Annualised revenue reported up ~5x in under six months. Valuation speculative, not priced.",
      "valid_from": "2026-06",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "amazon",
      "t": "openai",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "invests $50bn in ($15bn initial + $35bn conditional)",
      "mag": 50000000000,
      "magU": "$50bn ($15bn closed-initial / $35bn conditional)",
      "asof": "2026-02",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/27/open-ai-funding-round-amazon.html",
      "note": "Part of OpenAI's $110bn round at $730bn pre-money. Amazon now sits on BOTH frontier-lab cap tables (Anthropic and OpenAI).",
      "valid_from": "2026-02",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "sandboxaq",
      "t": "aqtive_guard",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "has product (PQC crypto management)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "FedRAMP Ready Dec 2025",
      "asof": "2025-12",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.sandboxaq.com/press/sandboxaq-achieves-fedramp-ready-status-powering-enterprise-readiness-across-the-defense-and-public-sector",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2025-12",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "sandboxaq",
      "t": "lqm",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "develops (equation+lab-data models)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "vs token-based LLMs",
      "asof": "2025-04",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.sandboxaq.com/press/sandboxaq-unlocks-new-capabilities-for-scientific-discovery-and-enterprise-innovation-with-nvidia-dgx-cloud",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2025-04",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "sandboxaq",
      "t": "aqnav",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "has product (quantum MagNav)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "450+ flight hours",
      "asof": "2025-11",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.sandboxaq.com/press/sandboxaq-partners-with-dows-defense-innovation-unit-to-advance-development-of-magnetic-navigation-systems",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2025-11",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "sandboxaq",
      "t": "reaqt",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "has product (materials simulation)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "CHIPS materials platform",
      "asof": "2026-06",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.nist.gov/news-events/news/2026/06/department-commerce-announces-definitive-agreement-sandboxaq-500-million",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026-06",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "sandboxaq",
      "t": "dow_cio",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "5-year AQtive Guard PQC-migration agreement",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "5-yr, dept-wide",
      "asof": "2025-12",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.sandboxaq.com/press/sandboxaq-and-dow-cio-partner-to-strengthen-us-defenses-against-quantum-and-ai-driven-cyber-threats",
      "note": "Crypto discovery/inventory prerequisite to NIST PQC migration; follows DISA QRC PKI prototype.",
      "valid_from": "2025-12",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "sandboxaq",
      "t": "diu",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "joined Transition of Quantum Sensing (AQNav)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "TQS program",
      "asof": "2025-11",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.sandboxaq.com/press/sandboxaq-partners-with-dows-defense-innovation-unit-to-advance-development-of-magnetic-navigation-systems",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2025-11",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "commerce",
      "t": "sandboxaq",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "$500M CHIPS R&D award (AI materials discovery)",
      "mag": 500000000,
      "magU": "$500M",
      "asof": "2026-06",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.nist.gov/news-events/news/2026/06/department-commerce-announces-definitive-agreement-sandboxaq-500-million",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026-06",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "commerce",
      "t": "sandboxaq",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "took minority non-controlling equity stake (via CHIPS award)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "minority equity",
      "asof": "2026-06",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.nist.gov/news-events/news/2026/06/department-commerce-announces-definitive-agreement-sandboxaq-500-million",
      "note": "State takes equity in exchange for the $500M award - government-as-shareholder pattern.",
      "valid_from": "2026-06",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "sandboxaq",
      "t": "nato_diana",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "selected for NATO DIANA 2025 cohort (AQNav)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "~70 of 2,600+",
      "asof": "2025-02",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.sandboxaq.com/press/sandboxaq-selected-to-join-natos-2025-defence-innovation-accelerator-for-the-north-atlantic-diana-cohort",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2025-02",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "sandboxaq",
      "t": "white_house",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "supports the White House post-quantum cryptography executive order",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "EO of 22 Jun 2026",
      "asof": "2026-06",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/sandboxaq-supports-white-house-executive-order-as-post-quantum-cryptography-moves-to-implementation-for-national-security-302807077.html",
      "note": "Hidary: a new era in America cyber defense posture. Number contested: press coverage gives this order as EO 14409, but whitehouse.gov carries 14409 as \"Promoting Advanced Artificial Intelligence Innovation and Security\", signed 2 June 2026. The substance and the 22 Jun 2026 date stand; the number is not asserted here until a primary citation resolves it.",
      "valid_from": "2026-06",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "sandboxaq",
      "t": "us_defense",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "AQtive Guard FedRAMP Ready + SOC 2 + ISO 27001",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "FedRAMP Ready",
      "asof": "2025-12",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.sandboxaq.com/press/sandboxaq-achieves-fedramp-ready-status-powering-enterprise-readiness-across-the-defense-and-public-sector",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2025-12",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "nvidia",
      "t": "sandboxaq",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "strategic investor (Series E $150M extension)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "$150M ext w/ Google",
      "asof": "2025",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://news.crunchbase.com/venture/sandboxaq-ai-quantum-raise-googl-nvda/",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2025",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "eric_schmidt",
      "t": "sandboxaq",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "investor in",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "investor (also Board Chair)",
      "asof": "2022",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.sandboxaq.com/company/leadership/eric-schmidt",
      "note": "Financial investor; distinct from the Board-Chair role. Not a founder.",
      "valid_from": "2022",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "in_q_tel",
      "t": "sandboxaq",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "seed investor (CIA venture arm)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "seed, May 2022",
      "asof": "2022-05",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.sandboxaq.com/post/welcome-iqt-paladin",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2022-05",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "ray_dalio",
      "t": "sandboxaq",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "Series E investor",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Series E",
      "asof": "2025-04",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.sandboxaq.com/press/sandboxaq-closes-450m-series-e-round-with-expanded-investor-base",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2025-04",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "t_rowe_price",
      "t": "sandboxaq",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "investor (since 2022 launch)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2022",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.sandboxaq.com/press/sandbox-aq-launches-with-customers-vodafone-softbank-mobile-mt-sinai-health-system-and-prominent-investors-including-t-rowe-price-eric-schmidt-breyer-capital-guggenheim-partners-and-thomas-tull",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2022",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "breyer_capital",
      "t": "sandboxaq",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "investor (since 2022 launch)",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2022",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.sandboxaq.com/press/sandbox-aq-launches-with-customers-vodafone-softbank-mobile-mt-sinai-health-system-and-prominent-investors-including-t-rowe-price-eric-schmidt-breyer-capital-guggenheim-partners-and-thomas-tull",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2022",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "marc_benioff",
      "t": "sandboxaq",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "investor",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2025",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.sandboxaq.com/press/sandboxaq-closes-450m-series-e-round-with-expanded-investor-base",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2025",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "bnp_paribas",
      "t": "sandboxaq",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "Series E investor",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Series E",
      "asof": "2025-04",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.sandboxaq.com/press/sandboxaq-closes-450m-series-e-round-with-expanded-investor-base",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2025-04",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "horizon_kinetics",
      "t": "sandboxaq",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "Series E investor",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Series E",
      "asof": "2025-04",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.sandboxaq.com/press/sandboxaq-closes-450m-series-e-round-with-expanded-investor-base",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2025-04",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "sandboxaq",
      "t": "google_cloud",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "runs DGX Cloud on / lists LQMs on Google Cloud",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "GCP Marketplace",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.sandboxaq.com/press/sandboxaq-and-google-cloud-partner-to-accelerate-quantitative-ai-for-the-enterprise",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "sandboxaq",
      "t": "crowdstrike",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "PQC-migration ecosystem partner",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026-06",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/sandboxaq-supports-white-house-executive-order-as-post-quantum-cryptography-moves-to-implementation-for-national-security-302807077.html",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026-06",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "sandboxaq",
      "t": "palo_alto",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "PQC-migration ecosystem partner",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026-06",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/sandboxaq-supports-white-house-executive-order-as-post-quantum-cryptography-moves-to-implementation-for-national-security-302807077.html",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026-06",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "cxmt",
      "t": "micron",
      "g": "rival",
      "pred": "challenges in DRAM",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "~8% global DRAM share",
      "asof": "2026-07",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.scmp.com/tech/big-tech/article/3361926/chinas-cxmt-shares-rise-472-star-market-debut-valuing-dram-maker-us489-billion",
      "note": "CXMT is the world's fourth DRAM maker at ~8% share, the first successful entry into the Samsung/SK Hynix/Micron oligopoly in over 20 years. Micron has publicly acknowledged CXMT as a legitimate competitor.",
      "valid_from": "2026-07",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "cxmt",
      "t": "sk_hynix",
      "g": "rival",
      "pred": "challenges in DRAM and HBM",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "HBM2 mass prod, HBM3 in dev",
      "asof": "2026-07",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/27/cxmt-china-market-debut-chipmaker-ipo.html",
      "note": "CXMT trails SK Hynix on HBM but brought HBM2 into mass production ahead of schedule; SemiAnalysis sees 100k HBM wafers/month by 2028.",
      "valid_from": "2026-07",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "cxmt",
      "t": "samsung",
      "g": "rival",
      "pred": "challenges in DRAM",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "4th global DRAM maker",
      "asof": "2026-07",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/27/cxmt-china-market-debut-chipmaker-ipo.html",
      "note": "CXMT is one to two process generations behind the leaders but competitive in mainstream DDR5 and LPDDR5X.",
      "valid_from": "2026-07",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "us_gov",
      "t": "cxmt",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "blocks EUV lithography access to",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "export controls since 2019",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.techtimes.com/articles/321597/20260725/cxmt-hits-star-market-monday-86b-war-chest-hard-equipment-ceiling.htm",
      "note": "US-led pressure keeps ASML EUV out of CXMT's hands and tightens DUV sales, forcing multi-patterning DUV at higher cost and lower yield. The hard equipment ceiling.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "asml",
      "t": "cxmt",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "supplies DUV (not EUV) to",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "immersion DUV scanners",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.techtimes.com/articles/321597/20260725/cxmt-hits-star-market-monday-86b-war-chest-hard-equipment-ceiling.htm",
      "note": "CXMT pushes ASML DUV immersion lithography to 10nm-class via multi-patterning while qualifying domestic tools from Naura and AMEC.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "cxmt",
      "t": "alibaba",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "supplies DRAM to",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "data-center DRAM",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.scmp.com/tech/big-tech/article/3361926/chinas-cxmt-shares-rise-472-star-market-debut-valuing-dram-maker-us489-billion",
      "note": "Long-standing structural dependency with no published commencement date. valid_from is null because none was ever established, not because the research is outstanding.",
      "valid_from": null,
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "cxmt",
      "t": "tencent",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "supplies DRAM to",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "data-center DRAM",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.scmp.com/tech/big-tech/article/3361926/chinas-cxmt-shares-rise-472-star-market-debut-valuing-dram-maker-us489-billion",
      "note": "Long-standing structural dependency with no published commencement date. valid_from is null because none was ever established, not because the research is outstanding.",
      "valid_from": null,
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "cxmt",
      "t": "baidu",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "supplies DRAM to",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "data-center DRAM",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.scmp.com/tech/big-tech/article/3361926/chinas-cxmt-shares-rise-472-star-market-debut-valuing-dram-maker-us489-billion",
      "note": "Long-standing structural dependency with no published commencement date. valid_from is null because none was ever established, not because the research is outstanding.",
      "valid_from": null,
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "cxmt",
      "t": "huawei",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "supplies DRAM to",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "mobile + cloud DRAM",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.techtimes.com/articles/321597/20260725/cxmt-hits-star-market-monday-86b-war-chest-hard-equipment-ceiling.htm",
      "note": "Long-standing structural dependency with no published commencement date. valid_from is null because none was ever established, not because the research is outstanding.",
      "valid_from": null,
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "cambricon",
      "t": "smic",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "fabbed domestically by",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": null,
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://crossingriver.substack.com/p/chinas-ai-chip-landscape-a-complete",
      "note": "Cut off from TSMC, Cambricon's parts are made at SMIC on older nodes.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "cambricon",
      "t": "deepseek",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "reported as a chip supplier to",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": null,
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://finance.biggo.com/news/d8404546-7b7c-4620-8109-d9a14c330650",
      "note": "Rally driven partly by speculation over its role supplying DeepSeek.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "marvell",
      "t": "aws",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "designs custom AI silicon for",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": null,
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/surging-ai-custom-silicon-demand-042534281.html",
      "note": "Custom XPU/ASIC programmes for hyperscalers including Amazon.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "marvell",
      "t": "microsoft_cloud",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "designs custom AI silicon for",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": null,
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/surging-ai-custom-silicon-demand-042534281.html",
      "note": "Custom silicon wins with Microsoft alongside Alphabet and Amazon.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "marvell",
      "t": "nvidia",
      "g": "rival",
      "pred": "custom-silicon alternative to",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": null,
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/07/14/move-over-nvidia-this-custom-chip-stock-could-be-t/",
      "note": "Hyperscaler custom ASICs are the main structural alternative to merchant GPUs.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "cerebras",
      "t": "openai",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "supplies 750MW of compute to",
      "mag": 750,
      "magU": "MW",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/14/cerebras-cbrs-stock-trade-nasdaq-ipo.html",
      "note": "Multi-year OpenAI agreement, over $20bn, plus a $1bn working-capital loan.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "cerebras",
      "t": "nvidia",
      "g": "rival",
      "pred": "competes with",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": null,
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/05/14/cbrs-stock-ai-chip-stocks-nvda-stock-competitor/",
      "note": "Wafer-scale WSE-3 positioned against Nvidia GPUs for large-model training and inference.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "biren",
      "t": "smic",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "now fabbed domestically by",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": null,
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://crossingriver.substack.com/p/chinas-ai-chip-landscape-a-complete",
      "note": "After the 2022 TSMC cutoff, Biren depends on domestic fabrication.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "moore_threads",
      "t": "smic",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "fabbed domestically by",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": null,
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202607/1366311.shtml",
      "note": "Domestic GPU maker reliant on SMIC-class manufacturing.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "enflame",
      "t": "tencent",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "backed by",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": null,
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://crossingriver.substack.com/p/chinas-ai-chip-landscape-a-complete",
      "note": "Tencent is a principal backer of Enflame.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "sugon",
      "t": "us_gov",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "placed on the US Entity List by",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": null,
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sugon",
      "note": "Entity List designation restricts Sugon's access to US technology.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "sugon",
      "t": "huawei",
      "g": "rival",
      "pred": "domestic AI-infrastructure rival to",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": null,
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.scmp.com/tech/tech-trends/article/3337126/chinas-sugon-unveils-new-ai-infrastructure-rival-platforms-nvidia-and-huawei",
      "note": "Sugon 8000 supercluster positioned against Nvidia and Huawei platforms.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "nvidia",
      "t": "openai",
      "g": "loop",
      "pred": "in talks to backstop debt of",
      "mag": 250000000000,
      "magU": "up to $250bn",
      "asof": "2026-07",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/27/nvidia-and-openai-in-talks-for-up-to-250-billion-dollar-ai-backstop.html",
      "note": "Reported talks, not a signed agreement. Would let OpenAI raise debt against Nvidia's credit for the 10GW Pike County campus. The first loop in this map built on credit rather than equity.",
      "valid_from": "2026-07",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "openai",
      "t": "pike_county",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "plans 10GW campus at",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "10GW",
      "asof": "2026-07",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/27/nvidia-and-openai-in-talks-for-up-to-250-billion-dollar-ai-backstop.html",
      "note": "The build the reported Nvidia backstop would finance.",
      "valid_from": "2026-07",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "nvidia",
      "t": "osaia",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "convened",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "37 members",
      "asof": "2026-07",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2026/07/27/nvidia-forms-37-member-ai-security-alliance-without-openai-anthropic-or-google",
      "note": "Nvidia and 36 others, announced 27 Jul 2026. Nvidia also open-sourced NOOA under the alliance.",
      "valid_from": "2026-07",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "huggingface",
      "t": "osaia",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "breach at, triggered formation of",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "sandbox escape",
      "asof": "2026-07",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://labs.cloudsecurityalliance.org/research/csa-research-note-nvidia-open-secure-ai-alliance-nooa-202607/",
      "note": "OpenAI test models escaped a sandbox; closed AI tooling then blocked forensic analysis. Cited as the galvanising event for the alliance.",
      "valid_from": "2026-07",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "ftc",
      "t": "arm",
      "g": "legal",
      "pred": "has opened a probe into",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "antitrust probe",
      "asof": "2026-07",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.techtimes.com/articles/322135/20260729/arm-holdings-q1-beat-sends-free-cash-flow-343-ftc-probe-bigger-story.htm",
      "note": "Disclosed around Arm's Q1 FY2027 results, which otherwise beat on revenue and free cash flow.",
      "valid_from": "2026-07",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "microsoft",
      "t": "osaia",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "is a founding member of",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "founding member",
      "asof": "2026-07",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2026/07/27/nvidia-forms-37-member-ai-security-alliance-without-openai-anthropic-or-google",
      "note": "Named in the inaugural membership announced 27 Jul 2026.",
      "valid_from": "2026-07",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "ibm",
      "t": "osaia",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "is a founding member of",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "founding member",
      "asof": "2026-07",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2026/07/27/nvidia-forms-37-member-ai-security-alliance-without-openai-anthropic-or-google",
      "note": "Named in the inaugural membership announced 27 Jul 2026.",
      "valid_from": "2026-07",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "red_hat",
      "t": "osaia",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "is a founding member of",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "founding member",
      "asof": "2026-07",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2026/07/27/nvidia-forms-37-member-ai-security-alliance-without-openai-anthropic-or-google",
      "note": "Named in the inaugural membership announced 27 Jul 2026.",
      "valid_from": "2026-07",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "cloudflare",
      "t": "osaia",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "is a founding member of",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "founding member",
      "asof": "2026-07",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2026/07/27/nvidia-forms-37-member-ai-security-alliance-without-openai-anthropic-or-google",
      "note": "Named in the inaugural membership announced 27 Jul 2026.",
      "valid_from": "2026-07",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "crowdstrike",
      "t": "osaia",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "is a founding member of",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "founding member",
      "asof": "2026-07",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2026/07/27/nvidia-forms-37-member-ai-security-alliance-without-openai-anthropic-or-google",
      "note": "Named in the inaugural membership announced 27 Jul 2026.",
      "valid_from": "2026-07",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "palantir",
      "t": "osaia",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "is a founding member of",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "founding member",
      "asof": "2026-07",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2026/07/27/nvidia-forms-37-member-ai-security-alliance-without-openai-anthropic-or-google",
      "note": "Named in the inaugural membership announced 27 Jul 2026.",
      "valid_from": "2026-07",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "databricks",
      "t": "osaia",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "is a founding member of",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "founding member",
      "asof": "2026-07",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2026/07/27/nvidia-forms-37-member-ai-security-alliance-without-openai-anthropic-or-google",
      "note": "Named in the inaugural membership announced 27 Jul 2026.",
      "valid_from": "2026-07",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "huggingface",
      "t": "osaia",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "is a founding member of",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "founding member",
      "asof": "2026-07",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2026/07/27/nvidia-forms-37-member-ai-security-alliance-without-openai-anthropic-or-google",
      "note": "Named in the inaugural membership announced 27 Jul 2026.",
      "valid_from": "2026-07",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "linux_foundation",
      "t": "osaia",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "is a founding member of",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "founding member",
      "asof": "2026-07",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2026/07/27/nvidia-forms-37-member-ai-security-alliance-without-openai-anthropic-or-google",
      "note": "Named in the inaugural membership announced 27 Jul 2026.",
      "valid_from": "2026-07",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null
    },
    {
      "s": "nvidia",
      "t": "hw_h200",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "designs",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "flagship China-eligible part",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/14/us-clears-h200-chip-sales-to-10-china-firms-as-nvidia-ceo-looks-for-breakthrough.html",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-05"
    },
    {
      "s": "nvidia",
      "t": "hw_h20",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "designs",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "prior China part",
      "asof": "2024",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://spectrum.ieee.org/china-ai-chip",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2024",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-05"
    },
    {
      "s": "amd",
      "t": "hw_mi325x",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "designs",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.bis.gov/press-release/department-commerce-revises-license-review-policy-semiconductors-exported-china",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-05"
    },
    {
      "s": "huawei",
      "t": "hw_ascend_950pr",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "designs",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "~1 PFLOP FP8",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://tech-insider.org/huawei-ascend-950pr-ai-chip-nvidia-china-2026/",
      "note": "CUDA-compatible stack lowers the cost of migrating off Nvidia.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-05"
    },
    {
      "s": "huawei",
      "t": "hw_ascend_910c",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "designs",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "~600k units planned 2026",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://spectrum.ieee.org/china-ai-chip",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-05"
    },
    {
      "s": "smic",
      "t": "hw_ascend_910c",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "fabricates",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://spectrum.ieee.org/china-ai-chip",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-05"
    },
    {
      "s": "bytedance",
      "t": "hw_ascend_950pr",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "has committed orders for",
      "mag": 5600000000,
      "magU": "$5.6bn of orders",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://tech-insider.org/huawei-ascend-950pr-ai-chip-nvidia-china-2026/",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-05"
    },
    {
      "s": "tencent",
      "t": "hw_ascend_950pr",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "orders",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://tech-insider.org/huawei-ascend-950pr-ai-chip-nvidia-china-2026/",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-05"
    },
    {
      "s": "deepseek",
      "t": "hw_ascend_950pr",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "trains V4 end-to-end on",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026-04",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://spectrum.ieee.org/china-ai-chip",
      "note": "The first frontier-class Chinese model trained without Nvidia silicon.",
      "valid_from": "2026-04",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-05"
    },
    {
      "s": "alibaba",
      "t": "hw_h200",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "is cleared to purchase",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026-05",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/14/us-clears-h200-chip-sales-to-10-china-firms-as-nvidia-ceo-looks-for-breakthrough.html",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026-05",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-05"
    },
    {
      "s": "tencent",
      "t": "hw_h200",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "is cleared to purchase",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026-05",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/14/us-clears-h200-chip-sales-to-10-china-firms-as-nvidia-ceo-looks-for-breakthrough.html",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026-05",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-05"
    },
    {
      "s": "bytedance",
      "t": "hw_h200",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "is cleared to purchase",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026-05",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/14/us-clears-h200-chip-sales-to-10-china-firms-as-nvidia-ceo-looks-for-breakthrough.html",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026-05",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-05"
    },
    {
      "s": "bis",
      "t": "pol_bis_h200",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "issued",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026-01",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.bis.gov/press-release/department-commerce-revises-license-review-policy-semiconductors-exported-china",
      "note": "Federal Register 2026-00789, effective 15 Jan 2026.",
      "valid_from": "2026-01",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-05"
    },
    {
      "s": "hw_h200",
      "t": "pol_bis_h200",
      "g": "legal",
      "pred": "is subject to case-by-case review under",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "25% tariff",
      "asof": "2026-01",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.bis.gov/press-release/department-commerce-revises-license-review-policy-semiconductors-exported-china",
      "note": "Moved from presumption of denial. A loosening.",
      "valid_from": "2026-01",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-05"
    },
    {
      "s": "hw_mi325x",
      "t": "pol_bis_h200",
      "g": "legal",
      "pred": "is subject to case-by-case review under",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026-01",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.bis.gov/press-release/department-commerce-revises-license-review-policy-semiconductors-exported-china",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026-01",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-05"
    },
    {
      "s": "huawei",
      "t": "pol_entity_list",
      "g": "legal",
      "pred": "is listed on",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2019",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://spectrum.ieee.org/china-ai-chip",
      "note": "The listing is why Huawei lost EDA access, which the map already records.",
      "valid_from": "2019",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-05"
    },
    {
      "s": "smic",
      "t": "pol_entity_list",
      "g": "legal",
      "pred": "is listed on",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2020",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://spectrum.ieee.org/china-ai-chip",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2020",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-05"
    },
    {
      "s": "iflytek",
      "t": "pol_entity_list",
      "g": "legal",
      "pred": "is listed on",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2019",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://spectrum.ieee.org/china-ai-chip",
      "note": "Redirecting spend from U.S. technology to domestic substitutes as a result.",
      "valid_from": "2019",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-05"
    },
    {
      "s": "cac",
      "t": "pol_cac_labelling",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "issued",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2025-09",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.insideprivacy.com/international/china/china-releases-new-labeling-requirements-for-ai-generated-content/",
      "note": "In force 1 Sep 2025. Visible and technical labels on all AI-generated media.",
      "valid_from": "2025-09",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-05"
    },
    {
      "s": "cac",
      "t": "pol_cac_anthropomorphic",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "issued",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026-04",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.pertamapartners.com/insights/china-ai-regulations",
      "note": "Published 10 Apr 2026, effective 15 Jul 2026.",
      "valid_from": "2026-04",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-05"
    },
    {
      "s": "eu_ai_office",
      "t": "pol_eu_ai_act",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "administers",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.pertamapartners.com/insights/china-ai-regulations",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-05"
    },
    {
      "s": "alibaba",
      "t": "pol_cac_labelling",
      "g": "legal",
      "pred": "is subject to",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2025-09",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.pertamapartners.com/insights/china-ai-regulations",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2025-09",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-05"
    },
    {
      "s": "bytedance",
      "t": "pol_cac_labelling",
      "g": "legal",
      "pred": "is subject to",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2025-09",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.pertamapartners.com/insights/china-ai-regulations",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2025-09",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-05"
    },
    {
      "s": "deepseek",
      "t": "pol_cac_labelling",
      "g": "legal",
      "pred": "is subject to",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2025-09",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.pertamapartners.com/insights/china-ai-regulations",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2025-09",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-05"
    },
    {
      "s": "palantir",
      "t": "theatre_ukraine",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "is deployed to",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://united24media.com/war-in-ukraine/easy-to-use-interactive-adaptive-palantir-ceo-alex-karp-on-ukraines-battlefield-targeting-tech-18715",
      "note": "Karp on the record: a large role in targeting acquisition. Joined Ukraine's MoD, armed forces and defence intelligence institute in 2026.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-05"
    },
    {
      "s": "tsmc",
      "t": "theatre_taiwan_strait",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "concentrates leading-edge capacity in",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://spectrum.ieee.org/china-ai-chip",
      "note": "The single largest geographic concentration risk in the map.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-05"
    },
    {
      "s": "dawg",
      "t": "theatre_taiwan_strait",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "is postured against PLA mass in",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2026/05/pentagons-54-billion-bet-autonomous-warfare/413735/",
      "note": "Stated purpose is countering PLA mass with autonomous mass.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-05"
    },
    {
      "s": "us_defense",
      "t": "dawg",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "absorbed Replicator into",
      "mag": 225900000,
      "magU": "$225.9m FY2026 line",
      "asof": "2025-12",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2026/05/pentagons-54-billion-bet-autonomous-warfare/413735/",
      "note": "Replicator dissolved after delivering hundreds rather than thousands.",
      "valid_from": "2025-12",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-05"
    },
    {
      "s": "nvidia",
      "t": "hw_vera_rubin",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "designs",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Rubin GPU + Vera CPU",
      "asof": "2026-08",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/movers/26/08/60935776/musk-praises-vera-rubin-platform-on-spacex-earnings-call-nvidia-stock-climbs",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026-08",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-05"
    },
    {
      "s": "spacex",
      "t": "hw_vera_rubin",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "has committed to build exclusively on",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "exclusive, going forward",
      "asof": "2026-08",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/04/spacex-spcx-earnings-live-updates-q2-2026.html",
      "note": "Stated by Musk on the 4 Aug 2026 call. Exclusivity is for AI compute going forward, not all procurement.",
      "valid_from": "2026-08",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-05"
    },
    {
      "s": "spacex",
      "t": "nvidia",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "named sole AI-compute supplier going forward",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "20GW target by end-2027",
      "asof": "2026-08",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/movers/26/08/60935776/musk-praises-vera-rubin-platform-on-spacex-earnings-call-nvidia-stock-climbs",
      "note": "Musk floated 20GW of power and cooling online by end-2027, over 2GW of compute by end-2026, and cumulative compute possibly near 10GW by end-2027. Targets were presented as tentative.",
      "valid_from": "2026-08",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-05"
    },
    {
      "s": "spacex",
      "t": "starmind_ai1",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "co-designs with Nvidia",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026-08",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/04/spacex-spcx-earnings-live-updates-q2-2026.html",
      "note": "Compute payload for orbit.",
      "valid_from": "2026-08",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-05"
    },
    {
      "s": "nvidia",
      "t": "starmind_ai1",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "co-designs with SpaceX",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026-08",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/04/spacex-spcx-earnings-live-updates-q2-2026.html",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026-08",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-05"
    },
    {
      "s": "spacex",
      "t": "th_space",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "is moving data-centre compute into",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026-08",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/04/spacex-spcx-earnings-live-updates-q2-2026.html",
      "note": "Vera Rubin NVL723 racks intended for deployment in space as well as on the ground.",
      "valid_from": "2026-08",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-05"
    },
    {
      "s": "palantir",
      "t": "seg_us_commercial",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "generated Q2 2026 revenue of",
      "mag": 764000000,
      "magU": "$764m, +149% YoY",
      "asof": "2026-06",
      "disc": "filed",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260802523449/en/Palantir-Reports-Q2-2026-U.S.-Comm-Revenue-Growth-of-149-YY-and-Revenue-Growth-of-93-YY-Raises-FY-2026-Revenue-Guidance-to-82-YY-Growth-and-U.S.-Comm-Revenue-Guidance-to-134-YY-Crushing-Consensus-Expectations",
      "note": "FY2026 guidance for this segment raised above $3.42bn, at least +134%.",
      "valid_from": "2026-06",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-05"
    },
    {
      "s": "palantir",
      "t": "seg_us_government",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "generated Q2 2026 revenue of",
      "mag": 809000000,
      "magU": "$809m, +90% YoY",
      "asof": "2026-06",
      "disc": "filed",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260802523449/en/Palantir-Reports-Q2-2026-U.S.-Comm-Revenue-Growth-of-149-YY-and-Revenue-Growth-of-93-YY-Raises-FY-2026-Revenue-Guidance-to-82-YY-Growth-and-U.S.-Comm-Revenue-Guidance-to-134-YY-Crushing-Consensus-Expectations",
      "note": "Total US revenue $1.57bn, +115%. Group revenue $1.94bn, +93%.",
      "valid_from": "2026-06",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-05"
    },
    {
      "s": "japan_meti",
      "t": "frontia",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "directs",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "national programme to 2030",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.softbank.jp/en/sbnews/entry/20260727_01",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "nedo",
      "t": "noetra",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "selected under the Multimodal Foundation Model project",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026-06",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.softbank.jp/en/sbnews/entry/20260727_01",
      "note": "Tender won 30 June 2026; AIST selected alongside.",
      "valid_from": "2026-06",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "nedo",
      "t": "aist",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "selected under the Multimodal Foundation Model project",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026-06",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.softbank.jp/en/sbnews/entry/20260727_01",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026-06",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "japan_meti",
      "t": "nedo",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "funds and governs",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.softbank.jp/en/sbnews/entry/20260727_01",
      "note": "METI and NEDO support the R&D through a joint governance framework.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "japan_meti",
      "t": "noetra",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "is committing up to Y1tn over five years to",
      "mag": 6100000000,
      "magU": "up to Y1tn (~$6.1bn), 5 years",
      "asof": "2026-06",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.softbank.jp/en/sbnews/entry/20260727_01",
      "note": "Programme support for FRONTia, running to 2030.",
      "valid_from": "2026-06",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "japan_meti",
      "t": "th_defense",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "earmarked Y387.3bn for domestic AI development",
      "mag": 2500000000,
      "magU": "Y387.3bn FY2026",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.eenewseurope.com/en/meti-budget-hike-japan-chip-ai-fy-2026/",
      "note": "Envelope covers foundation models, data infrastructure and physical AI. Not a Noetra-specific line.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "japan_meti",
      "t": "rapidus",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "allocated a further Y150bn in FY2026 to",
      "mag": 970000000,
      "magU": "Y150bn FY2026",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.eenewseurope.com/en/meti-budget-hike-japan-chip-ai-fy-2026/",
      "note": "Takes cumulative central government investment in Rapidus to about Y250bn, separate from the wider Y2.35tn of 2nm support already recorded.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "japan_meti",
      "t": "tower_semi",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "will subsidise up to Y160bn toward",
      "mag": 1000000000,
      "magU": "up to Y160bn (~$1bn)",
      "asof": "2026-07",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.mlex.com/mlex/state-aid/articles/2501222",
      "note": "Against a $3bn Tower investment in Toyama and Niigata. Largest semiconductor-related subsidy under the Economic Security Promotion Act.",
      "valid_from": "2026-07",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "tower_semi",
      "t": "pol_jp_econ_security",
      "g": "legal",
      "pred": "is certified under",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "supply assurance plan",
      "asof": "2026-07",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://towersemi.com/2026/07/14/07142026/",
      "note": "Carries multi-year production obligations once supply starts.",
      "valid_from": "2026-07",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "sony",
      "t": "noetra",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "is a core member and investor in",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026-07",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.softbank.jp/en/sbnews/entry/20260727_01",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026-07",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "softbank",
      "t": "noetra",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "is a core member and investor in",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026-07",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.softbank.jp/en/sbnews/entry/20260727_01",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026-07",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "nec",
      "t": "noetra",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "is a core member and investor in",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026-07",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.nec.com/en/press/202607/global_20260716_01.html",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026-07",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "honda",
      "t": "noetra",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "is a core member and investor in",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026-07",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.softbank.jp/en/sbnews/entry/20260727_01",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026-07",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "pfn",
      "t": "noetra",
      "g": "talent",
      "pred": "invested in, and is seconding PLaMo engineers to",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "PLaMo team secondment",
      "asof": "2026-07",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.preferred.jp/en/news/pr20260716",
      "note": "Includes Daisuke Tanaka, who leads PLaMo and PFN foundation model development.",
      "valid_from": "2026-07",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "aist",
      "t": "noetra",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "researches the underlying techniques for",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026-07",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.softbank.jp/en/sbnews/entry/20260727_01",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026-07",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "noetra",
      "t": "noetra_ai_factory",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "is building",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "140MW",
      "asof": "2026-07",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/japan-government-industrial-leaders-and-nvidia-launch-the-worlds-first-national-ai-infrastructure",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026-07",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "nvidia",
      "t": "noetra",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "is sole compute supplier to",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "13,750 Vera CPUs + 27,500 Rubin GPUs",
      "asof": "2026-07",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/japan-government-industrial-leaders-and-nvidia-launch-the-worlds-first-national-ai-infrastructure",
      "note": "Described by Nvidia as the world's first national AI infrastructure for physical AI. Construction April 2027, operations June 2028.",
      "valid_from": "2026-07",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "noetra_ai_factory",
      "t": "hw_vera_rubin",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "is built on",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Vera Rubin DSX",
      "asof": "2026-07",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/japan-government-industrial-leaders-and-nvidia-launch-the-worlds-first-national-ai-infrastructure",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026-07",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "noetra",
      "t": "frontia",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "runs",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "to 2030",
      "asof": "2026-06",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.softbank.jp/en/sbnews/entry/20260727_01",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026-06",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "japan_meti",
      "t": "pol_jp_strategic_fields",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "implements",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026-06",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.nippon.com/en/news/yjj2026062401070/",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026-06",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "pol_jp_strategic_fields",
      "t": "th_defense",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "targets Y68tn for semiconductors by FY2040",
      "mag": 440000000000,
      "magU": "Y68tn by FY2040",
      "asof": "2026-06",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://asia.nikkei.com/economy/japan-maps-2.3tn-investment-plan-across-17-strategic-sectors",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026-06",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "pol_jp_strategic_fields",
      "t": "th_robotics",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "targets Y10.5tn for physical AI by FY2040",
      "mag": 68000000000,
      "magU": "Y10.5tn by FY2040",
      "asof": "2026-06",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://asia.nikkei.com/economy/japan-maps-2.3tn-investment-plan-across-17-strategic-sectors",
      "note": "Government target of 10 million AI-equipped robots across 18 sectors by 2040.",
      "valid_from": "2026-06",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "oracle",
      "t": "seg_oracle_rpo",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "reported contracted backlog of $455bn",
      "mag": 455000000000,
      "magU": "$455bn, +359% YoY",
      "asof": "2025-09",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/oracle-has-455bn-in-remaining-performance-obligations-at-end-of-q1-2026/",
      "note": "Q1 FY2026. Superseded by the Q3 figure; retained as history.",
      "valid_from": "2025-09",
      "valid_to": "2026-03",
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "oracle",
      "t": "seg_oracle_rpo",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "reported contracted backlog of $553bn",
      "mag": 553000000000,
      "magU": "$553bn, +325% YoY",
      "asof": "2026-03",
      "disc": "filed",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://investor.oracle.com/investor-news/news-details/2026/Oracle-Announces-Fiscal-Year-2026-Third-Quarter-Financial-Results/default.aspx",
      "note": "Q3 FY2026, up $29bn on the prior quarter. Driven by AI contracts dependent on Nvidia hardware.",
      "valid_from": "2026-03",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "nvidia",
      "t": "oracle",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "is a named cloud customer of",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2025-09",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/oracle-has-455bn-in-remaining-performance-obligations-at-end-of-q1-2026/",
      "note": "Named by Oracle's CEO among the AI contracts behind the backlog, alongside OpenAI, xAI, Meta and AMD.",
      "valid_from": "2025-09",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "amd",
      "t": "oracle",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "is a named cloud customer of",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2025-09",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/oracle-has-455bn-in-remaining-performance-obligations-at-end-of-q1-2026/",
      "note": "Keeps Oracle visibly dual-vendor: it buys Nvidia silicon at scale while selling capacity to Nvidia and AMD alike.",
      "valid_from": "2025-09",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "spacex",
      "t": "hw_vera_rubin",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "implies over one million units at its 2027 target",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "1-2m Rubin GPUs implied",
      "asof": "2026-08",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "estimate",
      "url": "https://the-decoder.com/spacexs-ambitious-compute-goals-could-require-over-two-million-nvidia-rubin-gpus/",
      "note": "Arithmetic from the stated 10GW end-2027 target, not a disclosed order. Could exceed two million if the whole expansion is Vera Rubin.",
      "valid_from": "2026-08",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "spacex",
      "t": "nvidia",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "is expected to take a significant share of 2027 shipments from",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "significant share of 2027 supply",
      "asof": "2026-08",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://wccftech.com/elon-musk-commits-spacex-exclusively-to-nvidia-gpus-citing-theyre-the-best/",
      "note": "JPMorgan view following the 4 Aug earnings call, not a company disclosure.",
      "valid_from": "2026-08",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "spacex",
      "t": "fcc",
      "g": "legal",
      "pred": "has asked to authorise up to 1m Starmind satellites",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "up to 1,000,000 satellites",
      "asof": "2026-01",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.notebookcheck.net/SpaceX-names-its-AI-Orbital-Data-Center-satellite-constellation.1328148.0.html",
      "note": "Filed January 2026. The constellation was later named Starmind.",
      "valid_from": "2026-01",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "starmind_ai1",
      "t": "hw_vera_rubin",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "carries Rubin GPUs and Vera CPUs",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "per-satellite racks",
      "asof": "2026-08",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://interestingengineering.com/ai-robotics/spacex-nvidia-starmind-ai1-compute-payload",
      "note": "First test units planned early 2027, mass production later that year if development holds.",
      "valid_from": "2026-08",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "ukraine_mod",
      "t": "theatre_ukraine",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "is prosecuting",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.kyivpost.com/post/78765",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "ukraine_mod",
      "t": "th_defense",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "raised 2026 defence spending to a record $98bn",
      "mag": 98000000000,
      "magU": "UAH4.4tn (~$98bn)",
      "asof": "2026-07",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.kyivpost.com/post/78765",
      "note": "Increase of UAH1.56tn (~$34.7bn), signed by Zelensky and backed by EU loans.",
      "valid_from": "2026-07",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "ukraine_mod",
      "t": "th_robotics",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "contracted ~$8bn of UAVs in H1 2026",
      "mag": 8000000000,
      "magU": "~$8bn H1, double YoY",
      "asof": "2026-07",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://euromaidanpress.com/2026/07/17/ukraine-contracted-8-billion-in-drones-this-year-in-stock-ones-reach-units-in-nine-days/",
      "note": "Average delivery for in-stock systems is nine days via the DOT-Chain Defense marketplace. Demand is set from battlefield data rather than human judgement.",
      "valid_from": "2026-07",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "theatre_ukraine",
      "t": "us_defense",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "is a primary demand driver for autonomy spending at",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://cuashub.com/en/content/pentagon-budget-proposal-boosts-drone-and-c-uas-funding-over-70-billion/",
      "note": "Alongside the Iran campaign.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "theatre_ukraine",
      "t": "nato",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "is a primary demand driver for autonomy spending at",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://cuashub.com/en/content/pentagon-budget-proposal-boosts-drone-and-c-uas-funding-over-70-billion/",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "us_defense",
      "t": "th_robotics",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "is seeking over $70bn for drone and counter-drone systems",
      "mag": 70000000000,
      "magU": ">$70bn sought",
      "asof": "2026-04",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://cuashub.com/en/content/pentagon-budget-proposal-boosts-drone-and-c-uas-funding-over-70-billion/",
      "note": "Described as the department's largest-ever investment in drones and counter-drone weapons. Distinct from the $225.9m DAWG line and from the broader $13.4bn autonomous-systems ecosystem figure.",
      "valid_from": "2026-04",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "shield_ai",
      "t": "us_defense",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "supplies uncrewed-aircraft autonomy to",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://cuashub.com/en/content/pentagon-budget-proposal-boosts-drone-and-c-uas-funding-over-70-billion/",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "theatre_iran",
      "t": "us_defense",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "drove AI usage to ~20bn tokens/day, up 4,425%",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "~20bn tokens/day, +4,425%",
      "asof": "2026-05",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://breakingdefense.com/2026/05/insatiable-appetite-for-ai-maven-usage-surged-for-strikes-on-iran-pentagon-ai-chief-says/",
      "note": "Pentagon AI chief's figure. The Army subsequently reinstated token limits after allowances were exhausted early.",
      "valid_from": "2026-05",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "palantir",
      "t": "theatre_iran",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "Maven Smart System used to plan and coordinate strikes in",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "13,000 targets",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://breakingdefense.com/2026/05/insatiable-appetite-for-ai-maven-usage-surged-for-strikes-on-iran-pentagon-ai-chief-says/",
      "note": "Operation Epic Fury: 3,000+ targets in the first week, about 13,000 by the 38-day ceasefire.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "anthropic",
      "t": "us_defense",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "Claude reported embedded in targeting and intelligence at",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.habtoorresearch.com/programmes/ai-war-pentagon-algorithms/",
      "note": "Reported as processing satellite imagery, intercepted communications and operational data to support targeting decisions. Notable given the map already records Anthropic as excluded from IL6/IL7 classified networks over guardrails.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "theatre_iran",
      "t": "hormuz",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "effectively closed",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "from 28 Feb 2026",
      "asof": "2026-02",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.vyrian.com/blog/strait-of-hormuz-semiconductor-supply-chain-crisis/",
      "note": "Opened with joint US and Israeli strikes; traffic severely restricted thereafter.",
      "valid_from": "2026-02",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "hormuz",
      "t": "mat_helium",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "is the transit chokepoint for",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "~30% of global supply",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://gowlingwlg.com/en/insights-resources/articles/2026/helium-hormuz-and-the-chip-supply-chain",
      "note": "Qatari helium moves with LNG from Ras Laffan.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "hormuz",
      "t": "mat_sulfur",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "is the transit chokepoint for Gulf exports of",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.vyrian.com/blog/strait-of-hormuz-semiconductor-supply-chain-crisis/",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "mat_helium",
      "t": "tsmc",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "is a non-substitutable input for",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://gowlingwlg.com/en/insights-resources/articles/2026/helium-hormuz-and-the-chip-supply-chain",
      "note": "Carrier gas, cleanroom purge gas and wafer coolant.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "mat_helium",
      "t": "sk_hynix",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "is a non-substitutable input for",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/05/04/closing-the-strait-of-hormuz-disrupted-30-of-the-w/",
      "note": "Ultra-pure helium prices doubled; memory fab output declines within one to two weeks of rationing.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "mat_helium",
      "t": "micron",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "is a non-substitutable input for",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/05/04/closing-the-strait-of-hormuz-disrupted-30-of-the-w/",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "mat_helium",
      "t": "samsung",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "is a non-substitutable input for",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/05/04/closing-the-strait-of-hormuz-disrupted-30-of-the-w/",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "mat_sulfur",
      "t": "tsmc",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "feeds the acid used in refining inputs for",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.vyrian.com/blog/strait-of-hormuz-semiconductor-supply-chain-crisis/",
      "note": "Sulfuric acid is essential to leaching and refining the metals used in semiconductors, batteries and magnets.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "chinese_gov",
      "t": "mat_sulfur",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "restricted exports of sulfuric acid",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.vyrian.com/blog/strait-of-hormuz-semiconductor-supply-chain-crisis/",
      "note": "Amplified the shortage created by the Hormuz closure.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "asml",
      "t": "hw_euv_low_na",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "is the sole maker of",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "~65 systems in 2026",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.sahmcapital.com/news/content/update-4-asml-capacity-upgrade-soothes-ai-chip-bottleneck-fears-2026-07-15",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "asml",
      "t": "hw_euv_high_na",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "is the sole maker of",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "~$400m per tool",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.techtimes.com/articles/320577/20260715/asml-raises-full-year-guidance-intel-ships-first-high-na-euv-logic-chip.htm",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "asml",
      "t": "hw_duv_immersion",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "is the sole maker of",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "~130 systems capacity 2026",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.sahmcapital.com/news/content/update-4-asml-capacity-upgrade-soothes-ai-chip-bottleneck-fears-2026-07-15",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "asml",
      "t": "hw_euv_low_na",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "is adding 30% capacity for 2027 in",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "+30% 2027, +30% under review 2028",
      "asof": "2026-07",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.sahmcapital.com/news/content/update-4-asml-capacity-upgrade-soothes-ai-chip-bottleneck-fears-2026-07-15",
      "note": "Reuters framed the expansion as easing AI chip bottleneck fears.",
      "valid_from": "2026-07",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "asml",
      "t": "hw_duv_immersion",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "is adding 30% capacity for 2027 in",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "+30% 2027, +30% under review 2028",
      "asof": "2026-07",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.sahmcapital.com/news/content/update-4-asml-capacity-upgrade-soothes-ai-chip-bottleneck-fears-2026-07-15",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026-07",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "samsung",
      "t": "hw_euv_low_na",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "depends on",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.sahmcapital.com/news/content/update-4-asml-capacity-upgrade-soothes-ai-chip-bottleneck-fears-2026-07-15",
      "note": "Long-standing structural dependency with no published commencement date. valid_from is null because none was ever established, not because the research is outstanding.",
      "valid_from": null,
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "sk_hynix",
      "t": "hw_euv_low_na",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "depends on",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.sahmcapital.com/news/content/update-4-asml-capacity-upgrade-soothes-ai-chip-bottleneck-fears-2026-07-15",
      "note": "Long-standing structural dependency with no published commencement date. valid_from is null because none was ever established, not because the research is outstanding.",
      "valid_from": null,
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "micron",
      "t": "hw_euv_low_na",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "depends on",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.sahmcapital.com/news/content/update-4-asml-capacity-upgrade-soothes-ai-chip-bottleneck-fears-2026-07-15",
      "note": "Long-standing structural dependency with no published commencement date. valid_from is null because none was ever established, not because the research is outstanding.",
      "valid_from": null,
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "tsmc",
      "t": "hw_euv_low_na",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "depends on",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.sahmcapital.com/news/content/update-4-asml-capacity-upgrade-soothes-ai-chip-bottleneck-fears-2026-07-15",
      "note": "Long-standing structural dependency with no published commencement date. valid_from is null because none was ever established, not because the research is outstanding.",
      "valid_from": null,
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "intel",
      "t": "hw_euv_high_na",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "is first to run in high-volume manufacturing",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Panther Lake, 18A layers",
      "asof": "2026-07",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.techtimes.com/articles/320577/20260715/asml-raises-full-year-guidance-intel-ships-first-high-na-euv-logic-chip.htm",
      "note": "First production use of High-NA anywhere, on selected 18A layers.",
      "valid_from": "2026-07",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "asml",
      "t": "intel",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "supplies EUV and High-NA to",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.techtimes.com/articles/320577/20260715/asml-raises-full-year-guidance-intel-ships-first-high-na-euv-logic-chip.htm",
      "note": "Long-standing structural dependency with no published commencement date. valid_from is null because none was ever established, not because the research is outstanding.",
      "valid_from": null,
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "asml",
      "t": "samsung",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "is the sole EUV supplier to",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.sahmcapital.com/news/content/update-4-asml-capacity-upgrade-soothes-ai-chip-bottleneck-fears-2026-07-15",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "asml",
      "t": "sk_hynix",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "is the sole EUV supplier to",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.sahmcapital.com/news/content/update-4-asml-capacity-upgrade-soothes-ai-chip-bottleneck-fears-2026-07-15",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "asml",
      "t": "rapidus",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "supplies EUV to",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.sahmcapital.com/news/content/update-4-asml-capacity-upgrade-soothes-ai-chip-bottleneck-fears-2026-07-15",
      "note": "Rapidus reached 2nm GAA wafer production three months after EUV installation.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "asml",
      "t": "seg_asml_china",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "derives about 20% of 2026 revenue from",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "~20% of FY2026; EUR2.9bn in H1",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/17/us-china-ai-feud-asml-tightrope-sales-geopolitics.html",
      "note": "DUV only. Down from prior years under export controls.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "pol_match_act",
      "t": "seg_asml_china",
      "g": "legal",
      "pred": "would further restrict",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "proposed, not enacted",
      "asof": "2026-04",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/07/asml-shares-today-us-chip-export-curbs-china.html",
      "note": "Targets DUV tools and related services to China. ASML shares fell on the proposal.",
      "valid_from": "2026-04",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "bis",
      "t": "asml",
      "g": "legal",
      "pred": "questioned executives over an alleged EUV diversion to China",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "allegation, denied",
      "asof": "2026-04",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/17/us-china-ai-feud-asml-tightrope-sales-geopolitics.html",
      "note": "Private meetings from April 2026 reported by Bloomberg, involving the Commerce Secretary. ASML has categorically refuted what it calls unfounded rumours of non-compliance. Recorded as an allegation and a denial, not as a finding of fact.",
      "valid_from": "2026-04",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "chinese_gov",
      "t": "hw_duv_immersion",
      "g": "rival",
      "pred": "is funding a domestic substitute for",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026-07",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/28/china-chipmaking-duv-tool-asml-explained.html",
      "note": "Reported Chinese DUV tool progress, with significant caveats on maturity. A long-term threat to the non-EUV business rather than a near-term one.",
      "valid_from": "2026-07",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "donald_trump",
      "t": "hub_trump_family",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "is grouped in",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026-07",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/interactive/2026/07/13/trumps-sons-invest-heavily-defense-fathers-administration-pours-money/",
      "note": "Grouping is our analytical construct, not a legal or corporate relationship.",
      "valid_from": "2026-07",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "donald_trump_jr",
      "t": "hub_trump_family",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "is grouped in",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026-07",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/interactive/2026/07/13/trumps-sons-invest-heavily-defense-fathers-administration-pours-money/",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026-07",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "eric_trump",
      "t": "hub_trump_family",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "is grouped in",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026-07",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/interactive/2026/07/13/trumps-sons-invest-heavily-defense-fathers-administration-pours-money/",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026-07",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "c1789_capital",
      "t": "hub_trump_family",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "is grouped in",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026-07",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/interactive/2026/07/13/trumps-sons-invest-heavily-defense-fathers-administration-pours-money/",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026-07",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "american_ventures",
      "t": "hub_trump_family",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "is grouped in",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026-07",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/interactive/2026/07/13/trumps-sons-invest-heavily-defense-fathers-administration-pours-money/",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026-07",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "donald_trump_jr",
      "t": "c1789_capital",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "is a partner in",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2024-11",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.lincolnsquare.media/p/inside-1789-capital-how-don-jrs-vc",
      "note": "Joined within days of the 2024 election. Firm founded 2022 by Omeed Malik.",
      "valid_from": "2024-11",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "eric_trump",
      "t": "american_ventures",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "invests principally through",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026-07",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/interactive/2026/07/13/trumps-sons-invest-heavily-defense-fathers-administration-pours-money/",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026-07",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "dominari",
      "t": "american_ventures",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "is the parent of",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026-07",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/interactive/2026/07/13/trumps-sons-invest-heavily-defense-fathers-administration-pours-money/",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026-07",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "c1789_capital",
      "t": "us_defense",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "portfolio companies secured at least $3.2bn in federal contracts after investment",
      "mag": 3200000000,
      "magU": "$3.2bn awarded, $3.1bn optioned",
      "asof": "2026-07",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/interactive/2026/07/13/trumps-sons-invest-heavily-defense-fathers-administration-pours-money/",
      "note": "Washington Post analysis, 13 July 2026, covering at least 15 companies backed by funds associated with both brothers. The figure is contracts secured after the investments were made. The Post does not assert causation and neither does this claim.",
      "valid_from": "2026-07",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "c1789_capital",
      "t": "vulcan_elements",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "invested at a ~$200m valuation in",
      "mag": 200000000,
      "magU": "~$200m valuation",
      "asof": "2025",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://techcrunch.com/2025/12/03/company-backed-by-donald-trump-jr-s-firm-nabs-620m-government-contract/",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2025",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "us_defense",
      "t": "vulcan_elements",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "committed a $620m loan to",
      "mag": 620000000,
      "magU": "$620m loan commitment",
      "asof": "2025-12",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://techcrunch.com/2025/12/03/company-backed-by-donald-trump-jr-s-firm-nabs-620m-government-contract/",
      "note": "A few months after the 1789 investment. Company subsequently valued near $2bn.",
      "valid_from": "2025-12",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "us_gov",
      "t": "hub_trump_family",
      "g": "legal",
      "pred": "lawmakers have called for a Pentagon probe of",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "probe requested 5 Aug 2026",
      "asof": "2026-08",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2026/08/05/lawmakers-call-pentagon-probe-trump-family-backed-companies/",
      "note": "Requested, not opened. Recorded because the claims above are contested and the reader should see that.",
      "valid_from": "2026-08",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "donald_trump",
      "t": "nvidia",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "directly holds at least $5m in",
      "mag": 5000000,
      "magU": "at least $5m, range",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "filed",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.forbes.com/sites/antoniopequenoiv/2026/05/15/trumps-investments-in-palantir-and-nvidia-draw-scrutiny-heres-what-companies-were-traded/",
      "note": "Direct beneficial ownership of the individual security, held in a revocable family trust with family trustees rather than a qualified blind trust. The Trump Organization states trades are executed through discretionary accounts managed by third-party institutions, which speaks to who executes, not to who owns. Disclosed amounts are ranges.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "donald_trump",
      "t": "palantir",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "directly holds at least $1m in",
      "mag": 1000000,
      "magU": "at least $1m, range",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "filed",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.forbes.com/sites/antoniopequenoiv/2026/05/15/trumps-investments-in-palantir-and-nvidia-draw-scrutiny-heres-what-companies-were-traded/",
      "note": "Direct beneficial ownership of the individual security, held in a revocable family trust with family trustees rather than a qualified blind trust. The Trump Organization states trades are executed through discretionary accounts managed by third-party institutions, which speaks to who executes, not to who owns. Disclosed amounts are ranges.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "donald_trump",
      "t": "apple",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "directly holds at least $5m in",
      "mag": 5000000,
      "magU": "at least $5m, range",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "filed",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.forbes.com/sites/antoniopequenoiv/2026/05/15/trumps-investments-in-palantir-and-nvidia-draw-scrutiny-heres-what-companies-were-traded/",
      "note": "Direct beneficial ownership of the individual security, held in a revocable family trust with family trustees rather than a qualified blind trust. The Trump Organization states trades are executed through discretionary accounts managed by third-party institutions, which speaks to who executes, not to who owns. Disclosed amounts are ranges.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "us_gov",
      "t": "pol_us_equity_intel",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "executed",
      "mag": 8900000000,
      "magU": "$8.9bn for 9.9%",
      "asof": "2025-08",
      "disc": "filed",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/22/intel-goverment-equity-stake.html",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2025-08",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "pol_us_equity_intel",
      "t": "intel",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "gave the US government a 9.9% holding in",
      "mag": 8900000000,
      "magU": "433.3m shares at $20.47",
      "asof": "2025-08",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/22/intel-goverment-equity-stake.html",
      "note": "No voting or governance rights. Funded from unpaid CHIPS grants and Secure Enclave money.",
      "valid_from": "2025-08",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "pol_us_equity_intel",
      "t": "hub_trump_family",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "is an administration action associated with",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2025-08",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/22/intel-goverment-equity-stake.html",
      "note": "Policy context only. The stake is held by the United States, not by any family member, and confers no personal ownership.",
      "valid_from": "2025-08",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "c1789_capital",
      "t": "spacex",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "holds a stake in",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.lincolnsquare.media/p/inside-1789-capital-how-don-jrs-vc",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "c1789_capital",
      "t": "anduril",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "holds a stake in",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.lincolnsquare.media/p/inside-1789-capital-how-don-jrs-vc",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "c1789_capital",
      "t": "cerebras",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "holds a stake in",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.lincolnsquare.media/p/inside-1789-capital-how-don-jrs-vc",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "c1789_capital",
      "t": "hadrian",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "holds a stake in",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-26/malik-s-1789-said-to-back-defense-rare-earth-magnet-startups",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "c1789_capital",
      "t": "axiom_space",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "holds a stake in",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.lincolnsquare.media/p/inside-1789-capital-how-don-jrs-vc",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "c1789_capital",
      "t": "databricks",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "holds a stake in",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.lincolnsquare.media/p/inside-1789-capital-how-don-jrs-vc",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "c1789_capital",
      "t": "unusual_machines",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "holds a stake in",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-26/malik-s-1789-said-to-back-defense-rare-earth-magnet-startups",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "c1789_capital",
      "t": "firehawk",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "holds a stake in",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-26/malik-s-1789-said-to-back-defense-rare-earth-magnet-startups",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "c1789_capital",
      "t": "psiquantum",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "holds a stake in",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.lincolnsquare.media/p/inside-1789-capital-how-don-jrs-vc",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "donald_trump",
      "t": "trump_family_trust",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "retains beneficial ownership through",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "filed",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://moneywise.com/news/top-stories/trump-eric-trump-nvidia-palantir-stock-trades-insider-trading-accusations",
      "note": "Revocable, so assets can be reclaimed. Not a qualified blind trust.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "donald_trump_jr",
      "t": "trump_family_trust",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "is a trustee of",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://moneywise.com/news/top-stories/trump-eric-trump-nvidia-palantir-stock-trades-insider-trading-accusations",
      "note": "Trustees are family members, which is the feature that distinguishes this from a blind trust with an independent overseer.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "trump_family_trust",
      "t": "us_gov",
      "g": "legal",
      "pred": "departs from the blind-trust convention observed since 1963",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://factually.co/fact-checks/politics/trump-ive-firm-278-t-2026-119f9f",
      "note": "Predecessors used a qualified blind trust, index funds and Treasuries, or liquidation. Stated as a comparison to precedent, not as a legal finding. 1963 is when the blind-trust convention began, not when this arrangement starts.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "donald_trump",
      "t": "trump_family_trust",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "executed 3,642 securities transactions in Q1 2026 through",
      "mag": 750000000,
      "magU": "3,642 trades, $220m-$750m",
      "asof": "2026-03",
      "disc": "filed",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://factually.co/fact-checks/politics/trump-ive-firm-278-t-2026-119f9f",
      "note": "2,345 purchases and 1,296 sales across 90 days, roughly 58 per trading day, mostly individual stocks. Two OGE Form 278-T reports.",
      "valid_from": "2026-03",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "us_gov",
      "t": "pol_china_revshare",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "established",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "15% of China AI chip revenue",
      "asof": "2025-08",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://feeds.bbci.co.uk/news/articles/cvgvvnx8y19o",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2025-08",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "nvidia",
      "t": "pol_china_revshare",
      "g": "legal",
      "pred": "pays 15% of China H20 revenue under",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "15%, H20",
      "asof": "2025-08",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://feeds.bbci.co.uk/news/articles/cvgvvnx8y19o",
      "note": "In exchange for export licences. The President said he sought 20% and settled at 15% after discussion with Nvidia's CEO.",
      "valid_from": "2025-08",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "amd",
      "t": "pol_china_revshare",
      "g": "legal",
      "pred": "pays 15% of China MI308 revenue under",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "15%, MI308",
      "asof": "2025-08",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.z2data.com/insights/inside-us-governments-revenue-sharing-deal-with-chipmakers-nvidia-amd",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2025-08",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "pol_china_revshare",
      "t": "commerce",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "directs payments to",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2025-08",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.z2data.com/insights/inside-us-governments-revenue-sharing-deal-with-chipmakers-nvidia-amd",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2025-08",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "us_gov",
      "t": "pol_state_equity",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "operates",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "~30 companies",
      "asof": "2025",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/qa-how-the-us-is-using-equity-stakes-to-support-domestic-critical-minerals-development/",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2025",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "pol_state_equity",
      "t": "intel",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "holds about 10% of",
      "mag": 8900000000,
      "magU": "~10%, $8.9bn",
      "asof": "2025-08",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.fool.com/investing/2025/10/19/trump-stake-intel-mp-lac-tmq-a-dangerous-precedent/",
      "note": "Makes the federal government Intel's largest single shareholder.",
      "valid_from": "2025-08",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "pol_state_equity",
      "t": "mp_materials",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "holds about 15% of",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "~15%",
      "asof": "2025",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/qa-how-the-us-is-using-equity-stakes-to-support-domestic-critical-minerals-development/",
      "note": "Rare earths and permanent magnets.",
      "valid_from": "2025",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "pol_state_equity",
      "t": "lithium_americas",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "holds about 5% of",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "~5%, plus ~5% of Thacker Pass",
      "asof": "2025",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/qa-how-the-us-is-using-equity-stakes-to-support-domestic-critical-minerals-development/",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2025",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "pol_state_equity",
      "t": "trilogy_metals",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "holds about 10% of",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "~10%",
      "asof": "2025",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/qa-how-the-us-is-using-equity-stakes-to-support-domestic-critical-minerals-development/",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2025",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "pol_state_equity",
      "t": "vulcan_elements",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "holds an equity position in",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/qa-how-the-us-is-using-equity-stakes-to-support-domestic-critical-minerals-development/",
      "note": "The same company 1789 Capital backed near a $200m valuation and which then received a $620m Defense Department loan commitment.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "us_gov",
      "t": "pol_state_equity",
      "g": "legal",
      "pred": "members of Congress sought oversight of",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "letter, 2 Feb 2026",
      "asof": "2026-02",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://democrats-naturalresources.house.gov/imo/media/doc/2026-02-02_moc_to_defense_commerce_energy_interior_re_mineral_equity_deals_oversight.pdf",
      "note": "Letter to the Secretaries of Defense, Commerce, Energy and Interior on the minerals equity deals.",
      "valid_from": "2026-02",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "donald_trump",
      "t": "lip_bu_tan",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "publicly called for the resignation of",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2025-08",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://fortune.com/article/intel-lip-bu-tan-artificial-intelligence-chips-trump/",
      "note": "Fifteen days before the announcement of the federal equity stake in Intel. Sequence recorded; no causal claim is made.",
      "valid_from": "2025-08",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "lip_bu_tan",
      "t": "intel",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "is CEO of",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2025",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://fortune.com/article/intel-lip-bu-tan-artificial-intelligence-chips-trump/",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2025",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "david_sacks",
      "t": "white_house",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "served as AI and Crypto Czar at",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "SGE, 130-day cap",
      "asof": "2025-01",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/26/david-sacks-trump-crypto-ai-czar.html",
      "note": "Special government employee status limits service to 130 days in any 12 months. Term concluded 26 March 2026.",
      "valid_from": "2025-01",
      "valid_to": "2026-03",
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "david_sacks",
      "t": "pcast",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "co-chairs",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026-03",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/26/david-sacks-trump-crypto-ai-czar.html",
      "note": "Opens where the czar role closes. Advisory rather than executive, and not subject to the 130-day cap.",
      "valid_from": "2026-03",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "michael_kratsios",
      "t": "pcast",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "co-chairs",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026-03",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/26/david-sacks-trump-crypto-ai-czar.html",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026-03",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "pcast",
      "t": "white_house",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "advises",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026-03",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/26/david-sacks-trump-crypto-ai-czar.html",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026-03",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "david_sacks",
      "t": "pol_ai_action_plan",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "shaped",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2025-07",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.axios.com/2026/03/26/trump-white-house-david-sacks-ai-czar-policy-influence",
      "note": "Axios framing on his departure was that he dropped the czar label, not the policy influence.",
      "valid_from": "2025-07",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "white_house",
      "t": "pol_ai_action_plan",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "issued",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "23 Jul 2025, plus 3 EOs",
      "asof": "2025-07",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.mintz.com/insights-center/viewpoints/54941/2026-07-08-ai-washington-report-july-2026-edition",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2025-07",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "white_house",
      "t": "pol_eo_preemption",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "signed",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "11 Dec 2025",
      "asof": "2025-12",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/12/eliminating-state-law-obstruction-of-national-artificial-intelligence-policy/",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2025-12",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "pol_eo_preemption",
      "t": "us_gov",
      "g": "legal",
      "pred": "directs an AI Litigation Task Force against state laws under",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2025-12",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.crowell.com/en/insights/client-alerts/executive-order-tries-to-thwart-onerous-ai-state-regulation-calls-for-national-framework",
      "note": "Also directs Commerce to withhold non-deployment BEAD broadband funding from states with conflicting AI laws.",
      "valid_from": "2025-12",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "white_house",
      "t": "pol_eo_frontier_security",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "signed",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "2 Jun 2026, EO 14409",
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      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/06/promoting-advanced-artificial-intelligence-innovation-and-security/",
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      "valid_from": "2026-06",
      "valid_to": null,
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      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "pol_eo_frontier_security",
      "t": "openai",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "invites voluntary pre-deployment review from",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "voluntary",
      "asof": "2026-06",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/06/promoting-advanced-artificial-intelligence-innovation-and-security/",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026-06",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "pol_eo_frontier_security",
      "t": "anthropic",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "invites voluntary pre-deployment review from",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "voluntary",
      "asof": "2026-06",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/06/promoting-advanced-artificial-intelligence-innovation-and-security/",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2026-06",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "white_house",
      "t": "stargate",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "hosted the announcement of",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "$500bn framing",
      "asof": "2025-01",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://the-decoder.com/stargates-500-billion-ai-infrastructure-project-reportedly-stalls-over-unresolved-disputes-between-openai-oracle-and-softbank/",
      "note": "Announced at the White House in January 2025 with OpenAI, SoftBank and Oracle.",
      "valid_from": "2025-01",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "stargate",
      "t": "openai",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "has lagged its framing, reportedly over partner disputes",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
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      "url": "https://the-decoder.com/stargates-500-billion-ai-infrastructure-project-reportedly-stalls-over-unresolved-disputes-between-openai-oracle-and-softbank/",
      "note": "More than a year after announcement, reporting describes unresolved disputes over structure and responsibility. OpenAI fell short of locking 10GW of commitments through SoftBank and Oracle and leaned on cloud contracts instead.",
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      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
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    },
    {
      "s": "openai",
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      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "announced five further sites for",
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      "magU": "",
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      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://openai.com/index/five-new-stargate-sites/",
      "note": "Expansion and shortfall are both true and are recorded together.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
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      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "musk",
      "t": "america_pac",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "gave $193m through Election Day to",
      "mag": 193000000,
      "magU": "$193m to America PAC",
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      "disc": "filed",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/01/politics/elon-musk-2024-election-spending-millions",
      "note": "Within total 2024-cycle political spending of more than $290m. FEC filings.",
      "valid_from": "2024-11",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "musk",
      "t": "donald_trump",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "spent more than $290m supporting the 2024 campaign of",
      "mag": 290000000,
      "magU": ">$290m, 2024 cycle",
      "asof": "2024-11",
      "disc": "filed",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/01/politics/elon-musk-2024-election-spending-millions",
      "note": "The single largest identified capital flow from an entity in this graph into electoral politics. Musk is also principal of SpaceX, which the graph records as exclusively committed to Nvidia and as a major federal contractor.",
      "valid_from": "2024-11",
      "valid_to": null,
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    {
      "s": "timothy_mellon",
      "t": "maga_inc",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "gave $151.5m to",
      "mag": 151500000,
      "magU": "$151.5m",
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      "disc": "filed",
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      "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/timothy-mellon-leads-huge-month-trump-megadonors-pouring-cash-election-rcna158204",
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      "valid_from": "2024-10",
      "valid_to": null,
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    {
      "s": "miriam_adelson",
      "t": "preserve_america",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "gave $100m to",
      "mag": 100000000,
      "magU": "$100m; $105.8m across all vehicles",
      "asof": "2024-10",
      "disc": "filed",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.forbes.com/sites/antoniopequenoiv/2024/10/15/billionaire-gop-megadonor-miriam-adelson-gives-95-million-to-pro-trump-super-pac/",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2024-10",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "america_pac",
      "t": "donald_trump",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "campaigned for",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2024",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/01/politics/elon-musk-2024-election-spending-millions",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2024",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "maga_inc",
      "t": "donald_trump",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "campaigned for",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2024",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/timothy-mellon-leads-huge-month-trump-megadonors-pouring-cash-election-rcna158204",
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      "valid_from": "2024",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "s": "preserve_america",
      "t": "donald_trump",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "campaigned for",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2024",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.forbes.com/sites/antoniopequenoiv/2024/10/15/billionaire-gop-megadonor-miriam-adelson-gives-95-million-to-pro-trump-super-pac/",
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      "valid_from": "2024",
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    {
      "s": "donald_trump",
      "t": "trump_memecoin",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "reported over $635m of royalties from",
      "mag": 635000000,
      "magU": ">$635m royalties",
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      "disc": "filed",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/financial-disclosure-1-billion-cryptocurrency-earnings-meme-coins-rcna352497",
      "note": "2025 annual financial disclosure, 927 pages, published 30 June 2026.",
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    },
    {
      "s": "donald_trump",
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      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "reported over $500m of income from",
      "mag": 500000000,
      "magU": ">$500m; token sales $236m-$520m",
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      "disc": "filed",
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      "url": "https://time.com/article/2026/07/01/trump-2025-financial-disclosure-crypto-world-liberty-financial/",
      "note": "Range reflects valuation method, plus about $65m from an equity sale. A widely circulated figure of ~$799m is not supported by the reporting reviewed here.",
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    {
      "s": "donald_trump",
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      "pred": "reported crypto-related income variously put between $580m and $1.4bn for 2025",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "contested: $580m / $1.2bn / $1.4bn",
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      "disc": "filed",
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      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/30/trump-financial-disclosure-released.html",
      "note": "Same filing, different totals across outlets depending on which lines are counted and how token proceeds are valued. Recorded as a contested range rather than a single number.",
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    {
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      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.ibm.com/new/announcements/meta-s-new-llama-3-3-70b-instruct-model-now-available-on-watsonx-ai",
      "note": "Platform layer, held separate from IBM the corporate entity so the model, governance and infrastructure claims attach where they actually belong.",
      "valid_from": "2023",
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    {
      "s": "ibm_research",
      "t": "ibm",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "is the research division of",
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      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://research.ibm.com/blog/granite-code-models-open-source",
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      "valid_from": "2023",
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    },
    {
      "s": "ibm_quantum",
      "t": "ibm",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "is the quantum division of",
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      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2023",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.ibm.com/quantum/blog/quantum-roadmap-2033",
      "note": "Previously an orphan in this graph: IBM Quantum had rival and partnership edges but no edge to its own parent. This is the classical-to-quantum join.",
      "valid_from": "2023",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-07"
    },
    {
      "s": "watsonx_governance",
      "t": "ibm_watsonx",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "is the governance layer of",
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      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://newsroom.ibm.com/2026-04-01-IBM-Expands-FedRAMP-Portfolio-with-Authorization-of-11-Software-Solutions,-Including-watsonx",
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    },
    {
      "s": "ibm_watsonx",
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      "pred": "runs on",
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      "disc": "reported",
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      "url": "https://www.hpcwire.com/off-the-wire/ibm-expands-ai-and-hpc-offerings-with-nvidia-h100-gpus-on-ibm-cloud/",
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    },
    {
      "s": "ibm_watsonx",
      "t": "meta",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "hosts and serves the Llama models of",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "Highest-weight open-source relationship in this subgraph",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://newsroom.ibm.com/Blog-IBM-Offers-Metas-Llama-3-Open-Models-on-Watsonx,-Expands-Portfolio-of-Next-Generation-Enterprise-Ready-Models",
      "note": "The highest-value open-source model relationship on the platform. Llama 2 announced Aug 2023, Llama 3 (8B/70B) Apr 2024, Llama 3.2 including the 11B and 90B multimodal models, then Llama 3.3 70B Instruct. Meta supplies the open-weight backbone IBM sells to enterprises that will not send data to a closed API.",
      "valid_from": "2026",
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    {
      "s": "ibm",
      "t": "ai_alliance",
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      "pred": "co-founded",
      "mag": null,
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      "asof": "2023-12",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://newsroom.ibm.com/AI-Alliance-Launches-as-an-International-Community-of-Leading-Technology-Developers,-Researchers,-and-Adopters-Collaborating-Together-to-Advance-Open,-Safe,-Responsible-AI",
      "note": "Launched 5 Dec 2023 with Meta.",
      "valid_from": "2023-12",
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      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-07"
    },
    {
      "s": "meta",
      "t": "ai_alliance",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "co-founded",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2023-12",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://venturebeat.com/ai/ibm-meta-launch-ai-alliance-with-over-50-tech-members-to-advance-open-safe-responsible-ai",
      "note": "IBM and Meta launched it jointly. Press framing at launch, and IBM's own, positioned it against closed-model vendors; OpenAI and Anthropic are not members.",
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    {
      "s": "amd",
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      "pred": "is a founding member of",
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      "asof": "2023-12",
      "disc": "reported",
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      "url": "https://venturebeat.com/ai/ibm-meta-launch-ai-alliance-with-over-50-tech-members-to-advance-open-safe-responsible-ai",
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      "valid_from": "2023-12",
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    {
      "s": "intel",
      "t": "ai_alliance",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "is a founding member of",
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      "asof": "2023-12",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/developer/articles/community/what-is-the-ai-alliance.html",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2023-12",
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    {
      "s": "nasa",
      "t": "ai_alliance",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "is a founding member of",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2023-12",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://venturebeat.com/ai/ibm-meta-launch-ai-alliance-with-over-50-tech-members-to-advance-open-safe-responsible-ai",
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      "valid_from": "2023-12",
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    {
      "s": "huggingface",
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      "pred": "is a founding member of",
      "mag": null,
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      "asof": "2023-12",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://venturebeat.com/ai/ibm-meta-launch-ai-alliance-with-over-50-tech-members-to-advance-open-safe-responsible-ai",
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      "valid_from": "2023-12",
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      "supersedes": null,
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    },
    {
      "s": "red_hat",
      "t": "ai_alliance",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "is a founding member of",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2023-12",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://venturebeat.com/ai/ibm-meta-launch-ai-alliance-with-over-50-tech-members-to-advance-open-safe-responsible-ai",
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      "valid_from": "2023-12",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-07"
    },
    {
      "s": "servicenow",
      "t": "ai_alliance",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "is a founding member of",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2023-12",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://venturebeat.com/ai/ibm-meta-launch-ai-alliance-with-over-50-tech-members-to-advance-open-safe-responsible-ai",
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      "valid_from": "2023-12",
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    {
      "s": "oracle",
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      "pred": "is a founding member of",
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      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2023-12",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://venturebeat.com/ai/ibm-meta-launch-ai-alliance-with-over-50-tech-members-to-advance-open-safe-responsible-ai",
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      "valid_from": "2023-12",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-07"
    },
    {
      "s": "linux_foundation",
      "t": "ai_alliance",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "is a founding member of",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2023-12",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://venturebeat.com/ai/ibm-meta-launch-ai-alliance-with-over-50-tech-members-to-advance-open-safe-responsible-ai",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2023-12",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-07"
    },
    {
      "s": "ibm_watsonx",
      "t": "huggingface",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "imports custom foundation models from",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2024",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://developer.ibm.com/tutorials/awb-deploying-custom-foundation-models-watsonx-ai-cloud/",
      "note": "Downgraded from the supplied claim of a native one-click hub integration. The documented path is a supported import: authenticate with a Hugging Face token, pull with huggingface-cli, stage to cloud object storage, then deploy if the model is TGI-compatible.",
      "valid_from": "2024",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-07"
    },
    {
      "s": "ibm_research",
      "t": "granite",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "builds and open-sources",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2023-09",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://research.ibm.com/blog/granite-code-models-open-source",
      "note": "Apache 2.0. First announced 7 Sep 2023; Granite 3.2 added reasoning and vision, Granite 4.0 moved to a hybrid architecture.",
      "valid_from": "2023-09",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-07"
    },
    {
      "s": "granite",
      "t": "huggingface",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "is distributed on",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2023-09",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://huggingface.co/ibm-granite/granite-4.1-8b",
      "note": "Published under the ibm-granite org alongside Ollama, LM Studio, Replicate, NVIDIA NIM, Docker Hub and Kaggle.",
      "valid_from": "2023-09",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-07"
    },
    {
      "s": "granite",
      "t": "ibm_watsonx",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "is the first-party model family of",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2023-09",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.ibm.com/new/announcements/ibm-granite-4-0-hyper-efficient-high-performance-hybrid-models",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2023-09",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-07"
    },
    {
      "s": "ibm",
      "t": "pytorch_foundation",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "is a premier member of",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2023",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://pytorch.org/blog/ibm-joins-pytorch/",
      "note": "Premier membership carries a governing-board seat, filled by Raghu Ganti of IBM Research, who co-leads IBM's foundation-model training and validation platform.",
      "valid_from": "2023",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-07"
    },
    {
      "s": "pytorch_foundation",
      "t": "pytorch",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "governs",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2022",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://pytorch.org/blog/ibm-joins-pytorch/",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2022",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-07"
    },
    {
      "s": "pytorch_foundation",
      "t": "linux_foundation",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "is hosted by",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2022",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://pytorch.org/blog/ibm-joins-pytorch/",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2022",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-07"
    },
    {
      "s": "ibm_cloud",
      "t": "hw_h100",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "runs AI and HPC workloads on",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2024",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.hpcwire.com/off-the-wire/ibm-expands-ai-and-hpc-offerings-with-nvidia-h100-gpus-on-ibm-cloud/",
      "note": "H100 instances reached general availability on IBM Cloud for LLM training and other demanding AI and HPC use cases.",
      "valid_from": "2024",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-07"
    },
    {
      "s": "nvidia",
      "t": "hw_h100",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "designs",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2022",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.hpcwire.com/off-the-wire/ibm-expands-ai-and-hpc-offerings-with-nvidia-h100-gpus-on-ibm-cloud/",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2022",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-07"
    },
    {
      "s": "ibm",
      "t": "nvidia",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "co-develops an enterprise AI stack with",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026-03",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://newsroom.ibm.com/2026-03-16-ibm-and-nvidia-announce-expanded-collaboration-at-gtc-2026-to-advance-ai-for-the-enterprise",
      "note": "Expanded at GTC 2026. watsonx integrates NVIDIA NIM microservices; CUDA acceleration was pushed into the data layer, with watsonx.data's Presto SQL engine accelerated by NVIDIA cuDF.",
      "valid_from": "2026-03",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-07"
    },
    {
      "s": "ibm_cloud",
      "t": "amd_epyc",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "runs bare-metal compute on",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2021-11",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://ir.amd.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1033/ibm-cloud-selects-3rd-gen-amd-epyc-processors-for-new",
      "note": "IBM Cloud selected 3rd Gen EPYC (7763) for bare metal in Nov 2021, following 2nd Gen in 2020. General-purpose and virtualised workloads, not an AI-specific pre-processing tier.",
      "valid_from": "2021-11",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-07"
    },
    {
      "s": "ibm",
      "t": "amd",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "brings AI accelerators into watsonx from",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2024-11",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://newsroom.ibm.com/2024-11-18-ibm-expands-its-ai-accelerator-offerings-announces-collaboration-with-amd",
      "note": "AMD Instinct MI300X support in watsonx and on IBM Cloud, announced 18 Nov 2024.",
      "valid_from": "2024-11",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-07"
    },
    {
      "s": "ibm_watsonx",
      "t": "openshift",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "is deployed on",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2023",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.ibm.com/docs/en/watsonx/watsonxdata/1.0.x?topic=cluster-installing-red-hat-openshift-container-platform",
      "note": "watsonx components install onto an OpenShift Container Platform cluster via Cloud Pak for Data. This is the on-premises and hybrid path; watsonx SaaS on IBM Cloud is the other.",
      "valid_from": "2023",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-07"
    },
    {
      "s": "openshift",
      "t": "red_hat",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "is a product of",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2023",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.redhat.com/en/blog/ibm-watsonxai-with-red-hat-openshift-ai",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2023",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-07"
    },
    {
      "s": "red_hat",
      "t": "ibm",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "is a wholly owned subsidiary of",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2019",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.redhat.com/en/blog/ibm-watsonxai-with-red-hat-openshift-ai",
      "note": "Acquired 2019. Explains why the OpenShift deployment path is IBM-internal rather than a third-party dependency.",
      "valid_from": "2019",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-07"
    },
    {
      "s": "ibm_watsonx",
      "t": "salesforce",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "supplies Granite models and Orchestrate agents to",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2024-05",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.salesforce.com/news/press-releases/2024/05/21/ibm-salesforce-ai-data-partnership/",
      "note": "Expanded May 2024: Granite models usable inside the Einstein 1 Platform, IBM joined the Zero Copy Partner Network for watsonx-to-Data-Cloud integration, and watsonx Orchestrate builds autonomous agents for Agentforce.",
      "valid_from": "2024-05",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-07"
    },
    {
      "s": "ibm_watsonx",
      "t": "sap",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "supplies Granite models to",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2024-05",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://newsroom.ibm.com/blog-ibm-granite-llm-now-available-through-the-generative-ai-hub-in-sap-ai-core",
      "note": "Granite is served through the generative AI hub in SAP AI Core on SAP Business Technology Platform, starting with granite.13b.chat, under the May 2024 \"Value Generation\" initiative covering finance, HCM, supply chain and CRM.",
      "valid_from": "2024-05",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-07"
    },
    {
      "s": "ibm",
      "t": "servicenow",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "co-develops AI agents with",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026-06",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://newsroom.servicenow.com/press-releases/details/2026/ServiceNow-and-IBM-Expand-Collaboration-to-Unlock-Enterprise-Data-for-AI-at-Scale/default.aspx",
      "note": "Expanded 11 Jun 2026. Three strands: legacy application modernisation, extending ServiceNow Workflow Data Fabric with watsonx.data governance, and agentic AI for multi-step IT and business workflows. First joint solutions guided to H2 2026.",
      "valid_from": "2026-06",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-07"
    },
    {
      "s": "ibm",
      "t": "adobe",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "co-delivers a generative content supply chain with",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2023-06",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://newsroom.ibm.com/2023-06-19-IBM-Expands-Partnership-with-Adobe-To-Deliver-Content-Supply-Chain-Solution-Using-Generative-AI",
      "note": "Direction corrected from the supplied packet. Adobe Firefly generates the assets under brand guardrails and IBM Consulting delivers the engagement; watsonx contributes translation, localisation and integration with Adobe Experience Platform. watsonx does not power Firefly.",
      "valid_from": "2023-06",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-07"
    },
    {
      "s": "ibm_research",
      "t": "nasa",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "co-creates open foundation models with",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2023-08",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://newsroom.ibm.com/2023-08-03-IBM-and-NASA-Open-Source-Largest-Geospatial-AI-Foundation-Model-on-Hugging-Face",
      "note": "Built with NASA IMPACT on the watsonx foundation-model stack and IBM's Vela supercomputer, with Clark University, ESA, USGS and Oak Ridge National Laboratory.",
      "valid_from": "2023-08",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-07"
    },
    {
      "s": "ibm_research",
      "t": "prithvi",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "built and open-sourced",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2023-08",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.earthdata.nasa.gov/news/nasa-ibm-openly-release-geospatial-ai-foundation-model-nasa-earth-observation-data",
      "note": "A temporal vision transformer trained on NASA Harmonized Landsat and Sentinel-2 imagery.",
      "valid_from": "2023-08",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-07"
    },
    {
      "s": "prithvi",
      "t": "huggingface",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "is distributed on",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2023-08",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://newsroom.ibm.com/2023-08-03-IBM-and-NASA-Open-Source-Largest-Geospatial-AI-Foundation-Model-on-Hugging-Face",
      "note": "Largest open-source geospatial AI model on the hub at release.",
      "valid_from": "2023-08",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-07"
    },
    {
      "s": "watsonx_governance",
      "t": "us_gov",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "is FedRAMP-authorised for use by",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026-04",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://newsroom.ibm.com/2026-04-01-IBM-Expands-FedRAMP-Portfolio-with-Authorization-of-11-Software-Solutions,-Including-watsonx",
      "note": "One of 11 IBM AI and automation products authorised in April 2026. Automates the bias and model-performance reporting federal agencies need for internal oversight boards and executive orders on safe and trustworthy AI.",
      "valid_from": "2026-04",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-07"
    },
    {
      "s": "ibm",
      "t": "moderna",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "supplies generative AI and quantum access to",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2023-04",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://newsroom.ibm.com/2023-04-20-Moderna-and-IBM-to-Explore-Quantum-Computing-and-Generative-AI-for-mRNA-Science",
      "note": "Multi-year agreement, April 2023. Moderna scientists use IBM's MoLFormer to optimise lipid nanoparticles and mRNA sequences, and joined the IBM Quantum Network and Quantum Accelerator. Exploratory design work, not the \"AI targeting\" framing in the supplied packet.",
      "valid_from": "2023-04",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-07"
    },
    {
      "s": "watsonx_governance",
      "t": "c_ai_governance",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "implements",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2023",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://newsroom.ibm.com/2026-04-01-IBM-Expands-FedRAMP-Portfolio-with-Authorization-of-11-Software-Solutions,-Including-watsonx",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2023",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-07"
    },
    {
      "s": "ibm",
      "t": "c_ai_governance",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "ships enterprise governance as a product surface",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2023",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://newsroom.ibm.com/2026-04-01-IBM-Expands-FedRAMP-Portfolio-with-Authorization-of-11-Software-Solutions,-Including-watsonx",
      "note": "Via watsonx.governance: bias tracking, agent evaluation, audit documentation, FedRAMP.",
      "valid_from": "2023",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-07"
    },
    {
      "s": "salesforce",
      "t": "c_ai_governance",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "ships enterprise governance as a product surface",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2024-05",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.salesforce.com/news/press-releases/2024/05/21/ibm-salesforce-ai-data-partnership/",
      "note": "Einstein Trust Layer, extended by the IBM partnership toward data security and regulatory compliance for joint deployments.",
      "valid_from": "2024-05",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-07"
    },
    {
      "s": "sap",
      "t": "c_ai_governance",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "ships enterprise governance as a product surface",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2024-05",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://news.sap.com/2024/05/ibm-and-sap-generative-ai-new-value-generation-partnership/",
      "note": "The generative AI hub in SAP AI Core is positioned as the relevant, reliable and responsible business-AI control point across SAP's cloud portfolio.",
      "valid_from": "2024-05",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-07"
    },
    {
      "s": "qiskit_ml",
      "t": "pytorch",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "extends",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2021",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://qiskit-community.github.io/qiskit-machine-learning/tutorials/05_torch_connector.html",
      "note": "TorchConnector wraps a Qiskit NeuralNetwork as a PyTorch Module, so a quantum circuit is a layer in an ordinary classical architecture and autograd carries gradients through it. Requires input_gradients=True at network init. This is the concrete join between the quantum cluster and the classical AI cluster.",
      "valid_from": "2021",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-07"
    },
    {
      "s": "qiskit_ml",
      "t": "ibm_quantum",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "is the machine-learning library of",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2021",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://qiskit-community.github.io/qiskit-machine-learning/tutorials/01_neural_networks.html",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2021",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-07"
    },
    {
      "s": "qiskit_ml",
      "t": "th_qml",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "is tooling for",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2021",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://qiskit-community.github.io/qiskit-machine-learning/tutorials/05_torch_connector.html",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2021",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-07"
    },
    {
      "s": "ibm_quantum",
      "t": "c_quantum_error_correction",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "depends on classical compute for",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2025-06",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/2506.01779",
      "note": "Relay-BP, an improved belief-propagation decoder, implemented on an off-the-shelf AMD FPGA, turns syndrome data into error information for qLDPC codes in under 480ns, roughly ten times faster than the prior design and inside the latency budget superconducting hardware imposes. IBM says this landed a year ahead of schedule.",
      "valid_from": "2025-06",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-07"
    },
    {
      "s": "ibm_quantum",
      "t": "amd",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "runs its real-time decoder on FPGAs from",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2025-06",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.ibm.com/quantum/blog/large-scale-ftqc",
      "note": "The decoder is an AMD FPGA, which puts AMD on both the classical and the quantum side of IBM's stack.",
      "valid_from": "2025-06",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-07"
    },
    {
      "s": "ibm_quantum_system_two",
      "t": "ibm_quantum",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "is the system architecture of",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2023-12",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.ibm.com/quantum/blog/quantum-roadmap-2033",
      "note": "Three 133-qubit Heron processors, cryogenic infrastructure, third-generation control electronics and classical runtime servers, in a 22ft by 12ft enclosure at Yorktown Heights. Modular so qubit count scales by linking chips. Stated purpose is quantum-centric supercomputing; the supplied claim that it was designed to relieve AI training linear-algebra bottlenecks is not supported and is not asserted here.",
      "valid_from": "2023-12",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-07"
    },
    {
      "s": "ibm_quantum_system_two",
      "t": "th_qml",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "is candidate hardware for",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2023-12",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.ibm.com/quantum/blog/quantum-roadmap-2033",
      "note": "Candidate, not purpose-built. No demonstrated advantage on production ML workloads.",
      "valid_from": "2023-12",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-07"
    },
    {
      "s": "yao_shunyu",
      "t": "react",
      "g": "data",
      "pred": "authored",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2022",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2210.03629",
      "note": "With Jeffrey Zhao, Dian Yu, Nan Du, Izhak Shafran, Karthik Narasimhan and Yuan Cao.",
      "valid_from": "2022-10",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-08"
    },
    {
      "s": "yao_shunyu",
      "t": "swe_bench",
      "g": "data",
      "pred": "co-created",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2023",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2310.06770",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2023-10",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-08"
    },
    {
      "s": "yao_shunyu",
      "t": "tau_bench",
      "g": "data",
      "pred": "co-created",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2024",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2406.12045",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2024-06",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-08"
    },
    {
      "s": "yao_shunyu",
      "t": "webshop",
      "g": "data",
      "pred": "co-created",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2022",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2207.01206",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2022-07",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-08"
    },
    {
      "s": "karthik_narasimhan",
      "t": "react",
      "g": "data",
      "pred": "co-authored",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2022",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2210.03629",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2022-10",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-08"
    },
    {
      "s": "cmu",
      "t": "webarena",
      "g": "data",
      "pred": "created",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2023",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.13854",
      "note": "First author Shuyan Zhou. Recorded to fix a common misattribution to Yao Shunyu.",
      "valid_from": "2023-07",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-08"
    },
    {
      "s": "yao_shunyu",
      "t": "princeton_nlp",
      "g": "talent",
      "pred": "took a doctorate at",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2019",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.cs.princeton.edu/events/26645",
      "note": "Final public oral 2 May 2024, thesis Language Agents: From Next-Token Prediction to Digital Automation. Start year is the standard programme length and is not separately sourced.",
      "valid_from": "2019",
      "valid_to": "2024-05",
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-08"
    },
    {
      "s": "karthik_narasimhan",
      "t": "yao_shunyu",
      "g": "talent",
      "pred": "advised the doctoral work of",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2019",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.cs.princeton.edu/events/26645",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2019",
      "valid_to": "2024-05",
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-08"
    },
    {
      "s": "karthik_narasimhan",
      "t": "princeton_nlp",
      "g": "talent",
      "pred": "is faculty at",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2019",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.cs.princeton.edu/events/26645",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2019",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-08"
    },
    {
      "s": "princeton_nlp",
      "t": "swe_bench",
      "g": "data",
      "pred": "produced",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2023",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2310.06770",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2023-10",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-08"
    },
    {
      "s": "princeton_nlp",
      "t": "webshop",
      "g": "data",
      "pred": "produced",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2022",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2207.01206",
      "note": "",
      "valid_from": "2022-07",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-08"
    },
    {
      "s": "yao_shunyu",
      "t": "alphabet",
      "g": "talent",
      "pred": "did the ReAct work at",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2022",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2210.03629",
      "note": "Google affiliation on the ReAct paper and reported in later profiles. Exact start and end dates are not published.",
      "valid_from": "2022",
      "valid_to": "2024",
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-08"
    },
    {
      "s": "langchain",
      "t": "react",
      "g": "data",
      "pred": "implements",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2022",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://reference.langchain.com/python/langgraph.prebuilt/chat_agent_executor/create_react_agent",
      "note": "create_react_agent cites the paper directly.",
      "valid_from": "2022-11",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-08"
    },
    {
      "s": "openai",
      "t": "swe_bench",
      "g": "data",
      "pred": "evaluated frontier models on",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2024",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://openai.com/index/why-we-no-longer-evaluate-swe-bench-verified/",
      "note": "Closed on the date OpenAI stopped reporting it.",
      "valid_from": "2024",
      "valid_to": "2026-02-23",
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-08"
    },
    {
      "s": "openai",
      "t": "swe_bench",
      "g": "data",
      "pred": "retired as a frontier evaluation",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://openai.com/index/why-we-no-longer-evaluate-swe-bench-verified/",
      "note": "OpenAI found frontier models could reproduce gold patches verbatim and said gains no longer reflected real software-development ability. It recommends the SWE-bench Pro public split instead.",
      "valid_from": "2026-02-23",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-08"
    },
    {
      "s": "anthropic",
      "t": "swe_bench",
      "g": "data",
      "pred": "reports model results on",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2024",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://openai.com/index/why-we-no-longer-evaluate-swe-bench-verified/",
      "note": "Claude Opus 4.5 is named in OpenAI's contamination analysis, which is the source used here rather than an Anthropic publication.",
      "valid_from": "2024",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-08"
    },
    {
      "s": "alphabet",
      "t": "swe_bench",
      "g": "data",
      "pred": "reports model results on",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2024",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://openai.com/index/why-we-no-longer-evaluate-swe-bench-verified/",
      "note": "Gemini 3 Flash is named in OpenAI's contamination analysis, which is the source used here rather than a Google publication.",
      "valid_from": "2024",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-08"
    },
    {
      "s": "anthropic",
      "t": "qwen",
      "g": "legal",
      "pred": "alleges a large-scale distillation campaign against Claude by",
      "mag": 28800000,
      "magU": "Claude exchanges alleged, via ~25,000 fraudulent accounts",
      "asof": "2026-06",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/24/anthropic-alibaba-distillation-campaign.html",
      "valid_from": "2026-06",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-08",
      "note": "AN ALLEGATION, NOT A FINDING. Anthropic wrote to Senators Scott and Warren on 10 June 2026 alleging ~28.8m Claude exchanges between 22 April and 5 June 2026 via roughly 25,000 fraudulent accounts. Alibaba has not publicly responded and nothing has been tested. conf=high refers to the allegation having been made and reported, not to the conduct being established."
    },
    {
      "s": "huggingface",
      "t": "ggml",
      "g": "ctrl",
      "pred": "acquired ggml and llama.cpp, which stay open-source",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "terms not disclosed",
      "asof": "2026-02",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://huggingface.co/blog/ggml-joins-hf",
      "valid_from": "2026-02-20",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-09",
      "note": "Announced by Hugging Face on 20 Feb 2026. Georgi Gerganov and team continue on llama.cpp with technical autonomy. No financial terms disclosed, so none are recorded."
    },
    {
      "s": "meta",
      "t": "huggingface",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "publishes its open-weight models on",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026-08",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://huggingface.co/meta-llama",
      "valid_from": null,
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-09",
      "note": "Verified against the organisation's own page on the hub."
    },
    {
      "s": "qwen",
      "t": "huggingface",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "publishes its open-weight models on",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026-08",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://huggingface.co/Qwen",
      "valid_from": null,
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-09",
      "note": "Verified against the organisation's own page on the hub."
    },
    {
      "s": "deepseek",
      "t": "huggingface",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "publishes its open-weight models on",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026-08",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://huggingface.co/deepseek-ai",
      "valid_from": null,
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-09",
      "note": "Verified against the organisation's own page on the hub."
    },
    {
      "s": "mistral",
      "t": "huggingface",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "publishes its open-weight models on",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026-08",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://huggingface.co/mistralai",
      "valid_from": null,
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-09",
      "note": "Verified against the organisation's own page on the hub."
    },
    {
      "s": "toyota",
      "t": "rapidus",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "is a founding shareholder of",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2022",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.rapidus.inc/en/news_topics/information/rapidus-secures-267-6-billion-yen-in-funding-from-japan-government-and-private-sector-companies/",
      "valid_from": "2022",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-10",
      "note": "One of the eight companies that founded Rapidus in 2022. All eight increased their stakes in the February 2026 round. Individual stake sizes are not disclosed, so none is recorded."
    },
    {
      "s": "ntt",
      "t": "rapidus",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "is a founding shareholder of",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2022",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.rapidus.inc/en/news_topics/information/rapidus-secures-267-6-billion-yen-in-funding-from-japan-government-and-private-sector-companies/",
      "valid_from": "2022",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-10",
      "note": "One of the eight companies that founded Rapidus in 2022. All eight increased their stakes in the February 2026 round. Individual stake sizes are not disclosed, so none is recorded."
    },
    {
      "s": "sony",
      "t": "rapidus",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "is a founding shareholder of",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2022",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.rapidus.inc/en/news_topics/information/rapidus-secures-267-6-billion-yen-in-funding-from-japan-government-and-private-sector-companies/",
      "valid_from": "2022",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-10",
      "note": "One of the eight companies that founded Rapidus in 2022. All eight increased their stakes in the February 2026 round. Individual stake sizes are not disclosed, so none is recorded."
    },
    {
      "s": "softbank",
      "t": "rapidus",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "is a founding shareholder of",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2022",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.rapidus.inc/en/news_topics/information/rapidus-secures-267-6-billion-yen-in-funding-from-japan-government-and-private-sector-companies/",
      "valid_from": "2022",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-10",
      "note": "One of the eight companies that founded Rapidus in 2022. All eight increased their stakes in the February 2026 round. Individual stake sizes are not disclosed, so none is recorded."
    },
    {
      "s": "nec",
      "t": "rapidus",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "is a founding shareholder of",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2022",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.rapidus.inc/en/news_topics/information/rapidus-secures-267-6-billion-yen-in-funding-from-japan-government-and-private-sector-companies/",
      "valid_from": "2022",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-10",
      "note": "One of the eight companies that founded Rapidus in 2022. All eight increased their stakes in the February 2026 round. Individual stake sizes are not disclosed, so none is recorded."
    },
    {
      "s": "denso",
      "t": "rapidus",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "is a founding shareholder of",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2022",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.rapidus.inc/en/news_topics/information/rapidus-secures-267-6-billion-yen-in-funding-from-japan-government-and-private-sector-companies/",
      "valid_from": "2022",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-10",
      "note": "One of the eight companies that founded Rapidus in 2022. All eight increased their stakes in the February 2026 round. Individual stake sizes are not disclosed, so none is recorded."
    },
    {
      "s": "kioxia",
      "t": "rapidus",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "is a founding shareholder of",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2022",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.rapidus.inc/en/news_topics/information/rapidus-secures-267-6-billion-yen-in-funding-from-japan-government-and-private-sector-companies/",
      "valid_from": "2022",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-10",
      "note": "One of the eight companies that founded Rapidus in 2022. All eight increased their stakes in the February 2026 round. Individual stake sizes are not disclosed, so none is recorded."
    },
    {
      "s": "mufg",
      "t": "rapidus",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "is a founding shareholder of",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2022",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.rapidus.inc/en/news_topics/information/rapidus-secures-267-6-billion-yen-in-funding-from-japan-government-and-private-sector-companies/",
      "valid_from": "2022",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-10",
      "note": "One of the eight companies that founded Rapidus in 2022. All eight increased their stakes in the February 2026 round. Individual stake sizes are not disclosed, so none is recorded."
    },
    {
      "s": "japan_meti",
      "t": "rapidus",
      "g": "gov",
      "pred": "backs, with a further Y100bn of state equity via IPA",
      "mag": 100000000000,
      "magU": "JPY, state equity via IPA",
      "asof": "2026-02-27",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.rapidus.inc/en/news_topics/information/rapidus-secures-267-6-billion-yen-in-funding-from-japan-government-and-private-sector-companies/",
      "valid_from": "2026-02-27",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-10",
      "note": "Part of a Y267.6bn round completed 27 Feb 2026: Y100bn from the state through the Information-technology Promotion Agency and Y167.6bn from 32 private companies. A shift from subsidy to direct ownership."
    },
    {
      "s": "tsmc",
      "t": "esmc",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "holds a 70% stake in",
      "mag": 70,
      "magU": "% equity",
      "asof": "2023-08",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.nxp.com/company/about-nxp/newsroom/NW-ESMC",
      "valid_from": "2023-08",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-10",
      "note": "Announced 8 Aug 2023. Total investment expected to exceed EUR10bn including EU and German government support. The fab is operated by TSMC."
    },
    {
      "s": "bosch",
      "t": "esmc",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "holds a 10% stake in",
      "mag": 10,
      "magU": "% equity",
      "asof": "2023-08",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.nxp.com/company/about-nxp/newsroom/NW-ESMC",
      "valid_from": "2023-08",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-10",
      "note": "Announced 8 Aug 2023. Total investment expected to exceed EUR10bn including EU and German government support. The fab is operated by TSMC."
    },
    {
      "s": "infineon",
      "t": "esmc",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "holds a 10% stake in",
      "mag": 10,
      "magU": "% equity",
      "asof": "2023-08",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.nxp.com/company/about-nxp/newsroom/NW-ESMC",
      "valid_from": "2023-08",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-10",
      "note": "Announced 8 Aug 2023. Total investment expected to exceed EUR10bn including EU and German government support. The fab is operated by TSMC."
    },
    {
      "s": "nxp",
      "t": "esmc",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "holds a 10% stake in",
      "mag": 10,
      "magU": "% equity",
      "asof": "2023-08",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.nxp.com/company/about-nxp/newsroom/NW-ESMC",
      "valid_from": "2023-08",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-10",
      "note": "Announced 8 Aug 2023. Total investment expected to exceed EUR10bn including EU and German government support. The fab is operated by TSMC."
    },
    {
      "s": "sk_hynix",
      "t": "nvidia",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "supplies HBM to",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2023",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.kedglobal.com/korean-chipmakers/newsView/ked202603100011",
      "valid_from": "2023",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-10",
      "note": "The leading HBM supplier and Nvidia's launch partner for HBM4. Reported shares of Nvidia's HBM4 orders range from about 62% to 70% across trade sources; the figures conflict, so none is recorded and only the relationship is."
    },
    {
      "s": "tsmc",
      "t": "ase",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "outsources CoWoS packaging steps to",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.trendforce.com/news/2026/08/05/news-tsmc-reportedly-expands-outsourcing-of-key-cowos-front-end-step-to-osats-amid-rising-nvidia-asic-demand/",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-10",
      "note": "CoWoS capacity is sold out; front-end chip-on-wafer work is being pushed to OSATs to ease the bottleneck. The constraint on AI accelerators is packaging as much as lithography, and it is no longer inside one company."
    },
    {
      "s": "tsmc",
      "t": "amkor",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "outsources CoWoS packaging steps to",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2026",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.trendforce.com/news/2026/08/05/news-tsmc-reportedly-expands-outsourcing-of-key-cowos-front-end-step-to-osats-amid-rising-nvidia-asic-demand/",
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-10",
      "note": "CoWoS capacity is sold out; front-end chip-on-wafer work is being pushed to OSATs to ease the bottleneck. The constraint on AI accelerators is packaging as much as lithography, and it is no longer inside one company."
    },
    {
      "s": "oracle",
      "t": "stargate_uae",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "co-operates",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2025-05",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.g42.ai/resources/news/global-tech-alliance-launches-stargate-uae",
      "valid_from": "2025-05",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-10",
      "note": "Operates the cluster jointly with OpenAI. A 1GW cluster inside the 5GW UAE-US AI Campus in Abu Dhabi, first 200MW phase targeted for 2026."
    },
    {
      "s": "nvidia",
      "t": "stargate_uae",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "supplies Grace Blackwell GB300 systems to",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2025-05",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.g42.ai/resources/news/global-tech-alliance-launches-stargate-uae",
      "valid_from": "2025-05",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-10",
      "note": "Named as the compute supplier. A 1GW cluster inside the 5GW UAE-US AI Campus in Abu Dhabi, first 200MW phase targeted for 2026."
    },
    {
      "s": "cisco",
      "t": "stargate_uae",
      "g": "ec",
      "pred": "supplies AI networking to",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2025-05",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.g42.ai/resources/news/global-tech-alliance-launches-stargate-uae",
      "valid_from": "2025-05",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-10",
      "note": "Named as the networking supplier. A 1GW cluster inside the 5GW UAE-US AI Campus in Abu Dhabi, first 200MW phase targeted for 2026."
    },
    {
      "s": "softbank",
      "t": "stargate_uae",
      "g": "cap",
      "pred": "invests in",
      "mag": null,
      "magU": "",
      "asof": "2025-05",
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.g42.ai/resources/news/global-tech-alliance-launches-stargate-uae",
      "valid_from": "2025-05",
      "valid_to": null,
      "supersedes": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-10",
      "note": "Named as an investment partner. A 1GW cluster inside the 5GW UAE-US AI Campus in Abu Dhabi, first 200MW phase targeted for 2026."
    }
  ],
  "findings": [
    {
      "id": "f_nvidia_spof",
      "kind": "risk",
      "sev": "critical",
      "title": "Single point of failure: Nvidia",
      "metric": "52 dependencies; one exclusive, one orbital",
      "evidence": [
        "nvidia",
        "openai",
        "spacex"
      ],
      "finding": "Every major lab, cloud and sovereign AI programme routes through one vendor. Nvidia is by far the most-connected entity in the sector, and a shock to it stalls the entire stack. Three things deepened that in the space of a month, and none of them was forced. SpaceX committed on 4 August 2026 to build its AI compute exclusively on Vera Rubin, on the ground and in orbit, against a 10GW end-2027 target that implies over a million Rubin GPUs; JPMorgan expects it to take a significant share of Nvidia's 2027 shipments. Japan's national physical-AI factory is 13,750 Vera CPUs and 27,500 Rubin GPUs, all Nvidia. And Oracle's $553bn contracted backlog rests largely on AI capacity built with Nvidia hardware. AMD's up-to-2GW arrangement with Anthropic is still the only credible second source at the frontier tier, and it is now outweighed on every side.",
      "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2026-ai-circular-deals"
    },
    {
      "id": "f_chokepoints",
      "kind": "risk",
      "sev": "critical",
      "title": "The sector resolves to a handful of firms",
      "metric": "3 technological, 1 physical",
      "evidence": [
        "asml",
        "tsmc",
        "synopsys",
        "cadence",
        "sk_hynix"
      ],
      "finding": "ASML alone makes the EUV lithography every leading-edge AI chip needs, behind TSMC, behind Nvidia. Two more compound it: the EDA duopoly (Synopsys + Cadence, ~96%) and the HBM triopoly (100%). No capital can quickly route around them. The last week of July 2026 showed what that concentration costs on the way down: the memory tier fell hardest of all, with SK Hynix down $176bn, Samsung $173bn and Micron $113bn of market value in days. A fourth chokepoint sits upstream of all of them and is not technological at all. The Strait of Hormuz carries the Gulf's sulfur and about a third of the world's helium, and it was effectively closed from February 2026.",
      "url": "https://hwbusters.com/news/the-quiet-monopoly-powering-every-advanced-chip-in-the-world/"
    },
    {
      "id": "f_circular",
      "kind": "risk",
      "sev": "high",
      "title": "~$1T of deals recycle inside one cohort",
      "metric": "15 circular loops, now including credit",
      "evidence": [
        "nvidia",
        "openai",
        "coreweave",
        "nebius"
      ],
      "finding": "Nvidia invests in the customers that buy its chips; investors fund the labs that spend it back on the investors' clouds. Now 15 loops. The newest one changes the kind of risk rather than the amount: Nvidia and OpenAI were reported in late July 2026 to be discussing a backstop of up to $250bn, which would let OpenAI raise debt against Nvidia's credit rather than take Nvidia's equity. Demand is partly self-referential, and now partly self-guaranteed.",
      "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2026-ai-circular-deals"
    },
    {
      "id": "f_anthropic_trap",
      "kind": "risk",
      "sev": "high",
      "title": "Five rivals in one cap table",
      "metric": "5 rival backers - $965B post-money",
      "evidence": [
        "anthropic",
        "amazon",
        "alphabet",
        "microsoft",
        "nvidia",
        "amd"
      ],
      "finding": "Anthropic is backed at once by Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Nvidia AND now AMD - five direct competitors on one cap table - at a $965B post-money (May 2026 Series H). AMD's up-to-$5bn equity plus its up-to-2GW MI450 supply add a fifth rival while softening pure Nvidia dependency. The lab is simultaneously filing to go public (confidential S-1, 1 Jun 2026).",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/22/amd-anthropic-ai-chip-investment.html"
    },
    {
      "id": "f_govgate",
      "kind": "risk",
      "sev": "critical",
      "title": "The state now gates the frontier",
      "metric": "8 firms cleared; 3 instruments; 1 exclusion",
      "evidence": [
        "us_defense",
        "white_house",
        "anthropic",
        "palantir",
        "openai",
        "spacex"
      ],
      "finding": "Eight companies hold IL6/IL7 classified-network agreements as of 1 May 2026: SpaceX, OpenAI, Google, Nvidia, Reflection, Microsoft, AWS and Oracle. Anthropic remains excluded, with talks stalled over surveillance and weapons guardrails, and Palantir pulled Claude from DoD platforms. That access list is one half of the picture; the policy scaffolding around it is the other, and it is consistent in direction. America's AI Action Plan of July 2025 directed the federal government to pursue AI dominance principally by minimising regulation. The executive order of 11 December 2025 moved against state AI laws directly, standing up a Justice Department litigation task force and putting federal broadband funding behind the preference. The executive order of 2 June 2026 addressed frontier-model risk through a framework that is expressly voluntary. Read together the posture is consistent: accelerate at the federal level, pre-empt at the state level, and handle safety by invitation. Access to the frontier is gated by the executive, and the gate is discretionary rather than statutory.",
      "url": "https://breakingdefense.com/2026/05/pentagon-clears-7-tech-firms-to-deploy-their-ai-on-its-classified-networks/"
    },
    {
      "id": "f_china",
      "kind": "risk",
      "sev": "elevated",
      "title": "A second frontier outside Western oversight",
      "metric": "sanction-proof stack",
      "evidence": [
        "huawei",
        "deepseek",
        "chinese_gov",
        "alibaba",
        "smic"
      ],
      "finding": "China has built a near-complete, sanction-proof AI stack: DeepSeek's V4 (Apr 2026) trains end-to-end on Huawei Ascend 950PR silicon - the first frontier-class model built without Nvidia - while a $295bn state plan for a unified national compute grid (2028) mandates 80% domestic sourcing, locking out both Nvidia and AMD. Alibaba and Tencent jointly bankroll a fleet of open-weight labs (Moonshot, MiniMax, Zhipu). It advances months - not years - behind the West, answers to none of its evaluators, and export controls are the only remaining lever.",
      "url": "https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/2026-03/Two_Loops--How_Chinas_Open_AI_Strategy_Reinforces_Its_Industrial_Dominance.pdf"
    },
    {
      "id": "f_headstart",
      "kind": "risk",
      "sev": "elevated",
      "title": "The insiders' headstart",
      "metric": "~2mo internal lead",
      "evidence": [
        "openai",
        "anthropic"
      ],
      "finding": "The people who build the frontier run more capable models internally than they ship - months early, wired into their own R&D. Self-built and fair, but compounding and invisible to outsiders.",
      "url": "https://metr.org/blog/2026-05-19-frontier-risk-report/"
    },
    {
      "id": "f_quantum_two_roads",
      "kind": "risk",
      "sev": "elevated",
      "title": "Quantum is splitting into two national stacks",
      "metric": "105–180 qubit systems, both sides",
      "evidence": [
        "google_quantum",
        "ibm_quantum",
        "ustc",
        "origin_quantum"
      ],
      "finding": "The US leads on error correction — Google's 105-qubit Willow shows below-threshold correction and IBM's 120-qubit Nighthawk targets fault-tolerance by 2029 — while China leads on scale and commercial deployment: USTC's 105-qubit Zuchongzhi 3.0 advantage claim and Origin Quantum's 180-qubit Wukong-180 cloud. Two parallel superconducting-QC programmes are maturing side by side, not converging.",
      "url": "https://siliconangle.com/2025/11/12/ibm-unveils-loon-nighthawk-next-generation-processors-scalable-fault-tolerant-quantum-computing/"
    },
    {
      "id": "f_china_quantum_cloud",
      "kind": "risk",
      "sev": "elevated",
      "title": "China's quantum cloud runs largely on US demand",
      "metric": "1M+ tasks - 192 countries",
      "evidence": [
        "origin_quantum",
        "us_gov"
      ],
      "finding": "Origin Quantum's Wukong superconducting cloud has logged 30M+ visits and surpassed one million completed quantum tasks from users in more than 192 countries (Jun 2026) - and US users have consistently been the largest foreign cohort. The classical chip-export wall does not extend to quantum-cloud access, where the dependency currently runs the other way.",
      "url": "https://thequantuminsider.com/2026/06/17/origin-wukong-reaches-one-million-tasks-as-china-advances-quantum-security-efforts/"
    },
    {
      "id": "f_second_gpu_frontier",
      "kind": "risk",
      "sev": "elevated",
      "title": "A second GPU supplier reaches the frontier",
      "metric": "2GW + $5bn (AMD/Anthropic)",
      "evidence": [
        "amd",
        "anthropic",
        "nvidia"
      ],
      "finding": "AMD's up-to-2GW MI450 deal with Anthropic, plus up to $5bn of equity, is the first credible second GPU source at the frontier-lab tier. It is a partial, forward-dated mitigant rather than a removal of the risk, and as of 4 August 2026 it is running against the tide: SpaceX, one of the largest compute buyers in this map, has committed to Nvidia exclusively. Diversification at one frontier lab is being offset by deliberate concentration at another buyer of comparable scale.",
      "url": "https://ir.amd.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1292/amd-and-anthropic-announce-strategic-partnership-to-deploy-up-to-2-gigawatts-of-amd-instinct-mi450-series-gpus"
    },
    {
      "id": "f_pqc_defense_hub",
      "kind": "risk",
      "sev": "elevated",
      "title": "Post-quantum defense readiness concentrates in one vendor",
      "metric": "1 firm, 5+ US/allied programmes",
      "evidence": [
        "sandboxaq",
        "dow_cio",
        "diu",
        "commerce",
        "white_house",
        "nvidia"
      ],
      "finding": "SandboxAQ now sits at the single intersection of the US/allied post-quantum transition: DoW CIO cryptographic migration (AQtive Guard), DIU quantum navigation (AQNav), a $500M CHIPS materials award, NATO DIANA, and White House PQC EO implementation - while its own compute and capital come from Google and Nvidia, who are simultaneously its investors and its cloud/GPU suppliers. The same circular vendor-invests-in-customer pattern seen at the frontier labs now shapes post-quantum defense, and the US government has taken equity in exchange for the CHIPS award (government-as-shareholder).",
      "url": "https://www.nist.gov/news-events/news/2026/06/department-commerce-announces-definitive-agreement-sandboxaq-500-million"
    },
    {
      "id": "f_compute_gap",
      "kind": "risk",
      "sev": "elevated",
      "title": "The compute balance is lopsided, and widening",
      "metric": "US ~75% vs China ~15% of GPU clusters",
      "evidence": [
        "nvidia",
        "tsmc",
        "huawei",
        "cambricon"
      ],
      "finding": "On raw AI compute the US commands roughly 75% of global GPU-cluster performance to China's ~15%, hosts 5,427 data centers, and is adding power at about 22% a year toward 90GW or more by 2030. China has reached near-parity on model quality, but its hardware stays a generation or two behind, gated by export controls and SMIC's ceiling versus TSMC. The gap is structural, not cyclical.",
      "url": "https://hai.stanford.edu/ai-index"
    },
    {
      "id": "f_capex_escalation",
      "kind": "risk",
      "sev": "high",
      "title": "Capex is compounding faster than the revenue behind it",
      "metric": "~$725bn in 2026, +77% YoY",
      "evidence": [
        "microsoft",
        "alphabet",
        "amazon",
        "meta"
      ],
      "finding": "Amazon, Alphabet, Meta and Microsoft together guide to roughly $725bn of AI capital spending in 2026, up about 77% from roughly $410bn in 2025. Alphabet alone spent $44.9bn in Q2, double the prior year, and guides $195-205bn for the year. Microsoft guides FY2027 to $255-260bn. Meta's free cash flow fell 91% in the quarter. Cloud revenue is accelerating with it (Google Cloud +82%, Azure +43%, AWS +37%), so the question is no longer whether demand exists. It is whether the spend can be funded at this rate without the circular structures above.",
      "url": "https://www.uncoveralpha.com/p/amazon-google-microsoft-meta-q2-earnings"
    },
    {
      "id": "f_july_repricing",
      "kind": "risk",
      "sev": "high",
      "title": "The market repriced the whole thesis in a single week",
      "metric": ">$1tn off chip market caps, w/e 29 Jul 2026",
      "evidence": [
        "nvidia",
        "sk_hynix",
        "samsung",
        "micron"
      ],
      "finding": "More than $1tn came off the sector's chip names in the last week of July 2026. Nvidia lost $238bn, SK Hynix $176bn, Samsung $173bn and Micron $113bn; AMD and TSMC each shed over $100bn, and the memory names entered a bear market. The stated cause was not weakening demand but a repricing of expectations, on concern that AI infrastructure spending is peaking faster than expected. This is the first market-priced test of the structure this map describes, and it fell along exactly the lines the map predicts: the chokepoint tier took the worst of it.",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/29/chip-selloff-sk-hynix-samsung-softbank.html"
    },
    {
      "id": "f_credit_backstop",
      "kind": "risk",
      "sev": "high",
      "title": "Circular capital moves from equity into credit",
      "metric": "up to $250bn, vendor backstopping customer",
      "evidence": [
        "nvidia",
        "openai"
      ],
      "finding": "In late July 2026 Nvidia and OpenAI were reported to be in talks over a backstop of up to $250bn, which would let OpenAI raise debt on the strength of Nvidia's credit to fund a 10GW campus in Pike County, Ohio. Every earlier loop was equity: a vendor buying a stake in its own customer. A credit backstop is different in kind. It puts the supplier's balance sheet behind the customer's borrowing, so a shortfall in demand at the customer lands directly on the supplier that sold it the hardware. Reported as talks, not a signed agreement.",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/27/nvidia-and-openai-in-talks-for-up-to-250-billion-dollar-ai-backstop.html"
    },
    {
      "id": "f_alliance_absence",
      "kind": "risk",
      "sev": "elevated",
      "title": "A security standard forms, and the frontier labs sit it out",
      "metric": "37 members; Anthropic on neither list",
      "evidence": [
        "nvidia",
        "anthropic",
        "openai",
        "alphabet"
      ],
      "finding": "On 27 July 2026 Nvidia and 36 others formed the Open Secure AI Alliance and open-sourced NOOA, a framework for making agent behaviour testable and auditable. Microsoft, IBM, Red Hat, Cloudflare, CrowdStrike, Palantir, Databricks, Hugging Face and the Linux Foundation joined. OpenAI, Google and Meta appear among the letter's signatories but are absent from the inaugural membership; Anthropic appears on neither. The absence is the finding. The firms whose models create the auditing problem are not in the body being formed to solve it, and the Cloud Security Alliance judges the result a standards body without a charter.",
      "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2026/07/27/nvidia-forms-37-member-ai-security-alliance-without-openai-anthropic-or-google"
    },
    {
      "id": "f_dual_ipo",
      "kind": "risk",
      "sev": "elevated",
      "title": "Both frontier labs are filing into the same quarter",
      "metric": "OpenAI 8 Jun, Anthropic 1 Jun; both Q4 2026",
      "evidence": [
        "openai",
        "anthropic",
        "sec"
      ],
      "finding": "OpenAI filed confidentially on 8 June 2026 for a debut between September and November. Anthropic filed on 1 June targeting an October Nasdaq listing, with Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley on a raise expected to exceed $60bn. Two loss-making labs pricing into public markets in the same quarter converts privately negotiated valuations into daily public marks, and does so for the assets sitting at the centre of the circular structures above. OpenAI projects a $14bn loss for 2026 and cumulative losses of up to $115bn by 2029.",
      "url": "https://forgeglobal.com/openai_ipo/"
    },
    {
      "id": "f_export_loosening",
      "kind": "risk",
      "sev": "elevated",
      "title": "The chip embargo loosened, and both stacks are now being built at once",
      "metric": "H200 case-by-case since 15 Jan 2026",
      "evidence": [
        "nvidia",
        "huawei",
        "alibaba",
        "bis"
      ],
      "finding": "The common reading is that Washington keeps tightening. The record says the opposite. BIS rule 2026-00789, effective 15 January 2026, moved the Nvidia H200 and AMD MI325X from presumption of denial to case-by-case review, subject to a 25% tariff and third-party testing, and roughly ten Chinese firms including Alibaba, Tencent and ByteDance were cleared to buy. At the same time Huawei is shipping the Ascend 950PR with a CUDA-compatible stack, ByteDance has committed around .6bn of orders, and DeepSeek V4 trains end-to-end on Ascend silicon. China is not choosing between the two stacks. It is buying the American one while the domestic one matures, which weakens the leverage the embargo was supposed to create.",
      "url": "https://www.bis.gov/press-release/department-commerce-revises-license-review-policy-semiconductors-exported-china"
    },
    {
      "id": "f_orbital_compute",
      "kind": "risk",
      "sev": "elevated",
      "title": "Compute is moving off the planet, on one vendor",
      "metric": "up to 1m satellites, first units 2027",
      "evidence": [
        "spacex",
        "nvidia",
        "hw_vera_rubin",
        "starmind_ai1"
      ],
      "finding": "SpaceX intends to deploy Nvidia Vera Rubin NVL723 racks both on the ground and in space, and is co-designing the Starmind AI1 satellite payload with Nvidia, each unit carrying Rubin GPUs and Vera CPUs. SpaceX asked the FCC in January 2026 to authorise up to one million Starmind satellites; first test units are planned for early 2027. Three consequences. The launch monopoly and the compute build sit inside one company, so the cost of orbiting a data centre is set by the firm that owns both. Orbital compute sits outside every jurisdiction in the policy layer here, all of which is written for hardware on somebody's soil. And the authorising body is not an AI regulator or an export-control agency but the FCC, a spectrum and satellite licensor, which is now a chokepoint on frontier compute by accident of jurisdiction.",
      "url": "https://www.axios.com/2026/08/04/spacex-earnings-elon-musk"
    },
    {
      "id": "f_timeline_decay",
      "kind": "risk",
      "sev": "elevated",
      "title": "Stated timelines can now be checked against the record",
      "metric": "3 restatements, one milestone, still open",
      "evidence": [
        "musk",
        "tesla",
        "c_unsupervised_autonomy"
      ],
      "finding": "Unsupervised autonomy has been promised on three separate dates now held in this map: by June 2025 (said January 2025), Q4 2026 at the earliest (said April 2026, citing complex intersections, road markings and weather), and widespread in the US by year-end (said May 2026, under a month after the concession and with no reported resolution of those obstacles). What exists today is fewer than 40 unsupervised robotaxis across three Texas cities. None of those statements was deleted when the next one arrived, which is the point: the graph can show the gap between what was said, when, and what was delivered, without anyone having to remember it.",
      "url": "https://electrek.co/2026/05/18/musk-unsupervised-fsd-widespread-us-end-of-year-smart-mobility-summit/"
    },
    {
      "id": "f_japan_sovereign_compute",
      "kind": "risk",
      "sev": "elevated",
      "title": "Japan buys sovereignty in models and rents it in compute",
      "metric": "Y1tn programme, 100% Nvidia silicon",
      "evidence": [
        "japan_meti",
        "noetra",
        "nvidia",
        "noetra_ai_factory"
      ],
      "finding": "Japan's FRONTia programme is a serious attempt at model sovereignty: up to Y1tn over five years for a domestically developed multimodal foundation model, run by a consortium of Sony, SoftBank, NEC and Honda with 44 investing organisations and PLaMo engineers seconded in from Preferred Networks. The compute underneath it is not sovereign at all. The 140MW facility is 13,750 Nvidia Vera CPUs and 27,500 Nvidia Rubin GPUs on Nvidia fabric, described by Nvidia itself as the world's first national AI infrastructure. This is the same pattern the map records at SpaceX: independence pursued at the model layer while dependence deepens at the silicon layer. It also dates the exposure precisely, because the facility does not begin operating until June 2028.",
      "url": "https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/japan-government-industrial-leaders-and-nvidia-launch-the-worlds-first-national-ai-infrastructure"
    },
    {
      "id": "f_supply_squeeze",
      "kind": "risk",
      "sev": "high",
      "title": "One buyer's target is larger than the market can currently supply",
      "metric": "memory +20%/yr vs compute demand +200%",
      "evidence": [
        "spacex",
        "nvidia",
        "sk_hynix",
        "micron"
      ],
      "finding": "SpaceX's move from about 2GW of compute at end-2026 to roughly 10GW at end-2027 implies well over a million Rubin GPUs and possibly more than two million. BNP Paribas has warned the commitment could trigger another Nvidia supply shortage. SpaceX itself put the constraint plainly: memory supply is growing at about 20 per cent a year while demand for AI compute rises more than 200 per cent, a gap that on its own account persists well into 2027. That points the risk at the HBM triopoly rather than at Nvidia, which is the tier this map already flags as a chokepoint and the tier that fell hardest in the July repricing. An exclusive commitment by one very large buyer does not create capacity; it reallocates a queue, and everyone else in the graph is standing in it.",
      "url": "https://www.tipranks.com/news/spacex-spcx-could-trigger-another-nvidia-gpu-shortage-bnp-paribas-warns"
    },
    {
      "id": "f_conflict_demand",
      "kind": "risk",
      "sev": "high",
      "title": "Two active wars are now a primary demand driver for AI",
      "metric": "$98bn Ukraine, 20bn tokens/day",
      "evidence": [
        "theatre_ukraine",
        "theatre_iran",
        "us_defense",
        "palantir"
      ],
      "finding": "Demand for military AI is no longer a forecast. Ukraine raised 2026 defence spending to a record UAH4.4tn, about $98bn, and contracted roughly $8bn of UAVs in the first half alone, at double the prior year and with nine-day delivery for in-stock systems. The Iran campaign supplied the consumption figure: Pentagon model usage reached about 20 billion tokens a day during Operation Epic Fury, an increase of 4,425 per cent, with Palantir's Maven Smart System used to plan and coordinate roughly 13,000 strikes, and the Army later reinstating token limits after allowances were exhausted early. Two consequences for this graph. Defence has become a load-bearing customer for commercial AI infrastructure rather than an adjacent market. And Ukraine is functioning as a live testbed whose procurement now sets drone requirements from battlefield data rather than committee.",
      "url": "https://breakingdefense.com/2026/05/insatiable-appetite-for-ai-maven-usage-surged-for-strikes-on-iran-pentagon-ai-chief-says/"
    },
    {
      "id": "f_hormuz_materials",
      "kind": "risk",
      "sev": "high",
      "title": "A physical chokepoint sits upstream of every technological one",
      "metric": "~30% of helium, Gulf sulfur, closed Feb 2026",
      "evidence": [
        "hormuz",
        "mat_helium",
        "mat_sulfur",
        "tsmc"
      ],
      "finding": "This map's chokepoints have all been technological: one lithography vendor, one leading-edge foundry, three memory makers. The 2026 Iran conflict exposed one that is purely geographic. The Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed from 28 February 2026, and it carries the Gulf's sulfur exports and roughly a third of the world's helium, most of it Qatari and produced alongside LNG at Ras Laffan. Helium has no substitute in chip fabrication: it is the carrier gas, the cleanroom purge gas and the wafer coolant. Ultra-pure helium prices doubled, and memory fab output begins declining within one to two weeks of rationing. Sulfuric acid, derived from the same route's sulfur, is essential to refining the metals that feed semiconductors, batteries and magnets, and China separately restricted sulfuric-acid exports. The significance is the ordering: a shipping lane can throttle ASML's customers without anyone touching a fab, an export licence or a chip.",
      "url": "https://gowlingwlg.com/en/insights-resources/articles/2026/helium-hormuz-and-the-chip-supply-chain"
    },
    {
      "id": "f_asml_transmission",
      "kind": "risk",
      "sev": "critical",
      "title": "ASML is where four separate risks meet",
      "metric": "sole source, 4 exposures, all indirect",
      "evidence": [
        "asml",
        "hw_euv_low_na",
        "tsmc",
        "hormuz"
      ],
      "finding": "ASML remains the sole maker of EUV and High-NA lithography, and Intel's first high-volume High-NA production on Panther Lake extends that monopoly into the next node rather than ending it. The July 2026 capacity announcement, 30% more Low-NA EUV and DUV immersion for 2027 with a further 30% under evaluation for 2028, was read as easing the bottleneck, and on volume it does. On concentration it does the opposite: more of the world's leading-edge capacity now depends on one company's ability to execute an expansion. Four distinct risks in this graph converge on that single point, and three of them reach it indirectly, which is why they are easy to miss. Demand: Nvidia's 52 dependencies and the SpaceX exclusivity all resolve to silicon only ASML's machines can print. Geography: ASML's largest customer concentrates leading-edge capacity in the Taiwan Strait. Materials: the Hormuz closure constrains the helium every customer fab needs, so a shipping lane can idle ASML tools without touching ASML. Policy: about 20% of 2026 revenue is China DUV, which the proposed MATCH Act would restrict further. None of these is a claim about ASML's business. They are paths through it.",
      "url": "https://www.sahmcapital.com/news/content/update-4-asml-capacity-upgrade-soothes-ai-chip-bottleneck-fears-2026-07-15"
    },
    {
      "id": "f_political_capital",
      "kind": "risk",
      "sev": "high",
      "title": "Political capital is now a mapped layer of the defence-AI stack",
      "metric": "$3.2bn awarded; $290m donated; probe requested",
      "evidence": [
        "hub_trump_family",
        "c1789_capital",
        "spacex",
        "anduril"
      ],
      "finding": "Funds associated with Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump hold positions in at least 15 companies seeking federal business, and the Washington Post reported on 13 July 2026 that those companies have secured at least $3.2bn in federal contracts since the investments were made, with a further $3.1bn in options. 1789 Capital, where Donald Trump Jr. became a partner within days of the 2024 election, accounts for 11 of the 15. The portfolio maps almost exactly onto the sectors this graph already flags as receiving elevated funding: defence autonomy, drones, space, advanced manufacturing, quantum and rare-earth magnets. The clearest single case is Vulcan Elements, backed at a valuation near $200m in autumn 2025 and awarded a $620m Defense Department loan commitment a few months later. Vulcan Elements is also in the federal equity portfolio, so a single company carries a 1789 Capital position, a $620m Defense Department loan commitment and a US government shareholding at once. On 5 August 2026 lawmakers called for a Pentagon probe. What the graph records is association and sequence: who invested in what, when, and what federal business followed. It does not assert causation, and no source cited here does either. On the President's own account the structure is worth stating precisely, because it is often described loosely: the securities are directly and beneficially owned, held in a revocable family trust whose trustees are family members, not a qualified blind trust, and Q1 2026 alone records 3,642 transactions worth between $220m and $750m. One donor edge deserves separating out because it runs through an entity already central to this graph. Elon Musk spent more than $290m on the 2024 cycle, $193m of it through America PAC, the largest identified flow from any entity in this map into electoral politics; he is also principal of SpaceX, which the graph records as a major federal contractor and as newly exclusive to Nvidia. Timothy Mellon at $151.5m to MAGA Inc and Miriam Adelson at about $105.8m across vehicles were larger or comparable donors but sit outside this sector. The systemic point is narrower and still material: the demand signal this map treats as policy-driven now has a documented overlap with the private interests of the family directing the policy, and that overlap is itself under formal review.",
      "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/interactive/2026/07/13/trumps-sons-invest-heavily-defense-fathers-administration-pours-money/"
    },
    {
      "id": "f_state_as_shareholder",
      "kind": "risk",
      "sev": "high",
      "title": "The state is now a shareholder and a rent-taker in the stack",
      "metric": "~30 equity positions; 15% of China chip revenue",
      "evidence": [
        "pol_state_equity",
        "pol_china_revshare",
        "intel",
        "nvidia"
      ],
      "finding": "Two instruments changed the relationship between the US government and this sector, and the map previously carried only a fragment of one. As shareholder: direct federal equity now spans a reported thirty-odd companies, including about 10% of Intel for $8.9bn, which makes the government Intel's largest single shareholder, 15% of MP Materials, 10% of Trilogy Metals and 5% of Lithium Americas. Most of the portfolio is critical minerals, the layer sitting upstream of everything else here. As rent-taker: since August 2025 Nvidia and AMD have paid the Commerce Department 15% of their revenue from specified China AI chip sales in exchange for export licences, an arrangement in which the licensing authority holds a direct financial interest in the volume it licenses. Both instruments are under congressional scrutiny, with a February 2026 oversight letter on the minerals deals. The consequence for reading this graph is that the United States can no longer be modelled purely as a regulator of the AI supply chain. On several nodes it is also a counterparty, and on Intel it is the largest owner.",
      "url": "https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/qa-how-the-us-is-using-equity-stakes-to-support-domestic-critical-minerals-development/"
    },
    {
      "id": "f_policy_personnel",
      "kind": "risk",
      "sev": "elevated",
      "title": "Policy influence outlasted the appointment that carried it",
      "metric": "130-day cap, role continues",
      "evidence": [
        "david_sacks",
        "pcast",
        "white_house",
        "pol_ai_action_plan"
      ],
      "finding": "David Sacks served as White House AI and Crypto Czar from January 2025 to 26 March 2026 as a special government employee, a designation capped at 130 days of service in any twelve months and carrying lighter disclosure and conflict obligations than a permanent appointment. When the clock expired he moved to co-chair the President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology alongside Michael Kratsios, describing the new seat as widening his remit from AI to technology generally. The structural observation is not about any individual. It is that the influence attached to the person rather than to the office, so the statutory limit on the office did not limit the influence. Any map that models policy exposure by tracking formal titles will misread this, which is why the graph records the role with an end date and the successor role opening where it closes.",
      "url": "https://www.axios.com/2026/03/26/trump-white-house-david-sacks-ai-czar-policy-influence"
    },
    {
      "id": "f_stargate_gap",
      "kind": "risk",
      "sev": "elevated",
      "title": "The signature compute programme has a framing-to-execution gap",
      "metric": "$500bn announced, partner disputes reported",
      "evidence": [
        "stargate",
        "openai",
        "softbank",
        "oracle"
      ],
      "finding": "Stargate was announced at the White House in January 2025 as roughly $500bn and 10GW over four years, with OpenAI, SoftBank and Oracle, and MGX funding an initial $100bn tranche. It remains the administration's signature compute-infrastructure signal. Execution has trailed the framing: more than a year on, reporting describes unresolved disputes between the partners over structure and responsibility, and OpenAI fell short of locking 10GW of commitments through SoftBank and Oracle, leaning instead on cloud contracts with AWS, Google Cloud, AMD and Cerebras. Further sites have also been announced, so expansion and shortfall are both true. The systemic point is about signal quality rather than about any partner: a headline number announced from a podium entered this graph, and the market, as a commitment. It is a framing. Oracle's $553bn contracted backlog is a commitment. The two should not be read the same way, and until now this map did not clearly distinguish them.",
      "url": "https://the-decoder.com/stargates-500-billion-ai-infrastructure-project-reportedly-stalls-over-unresolved-disputes-between-openai-oracle-and-softbank/"
    },
    {
      "id": "f_income_disclosure",
      "kind": "risk",
      "sev": "elevated",
      "title": "The disclosed income base is large, and its size is contested",
      "metric": "$580m to $1.4bn, same filing",
      "evidence": [
        "donald_trump",
        "trump_memecoin",
        "world_liberty"
      ],
      "finding": "The 2025 annual financial disclosure, 927 pages published on 30 June 2026, reports crypto-related income that outlets total variously at more than $580m, at $1.2bn and at $1.4bn from the same document. The spread comes from which lines are counted and how token proceeds are valued, not from disagreement about the filing. Two lines are firm: more than $635m of royalties from the $TRUMP memecoin, and more than $500m associated with World Liberty Financial, where token-sale proceeds are themselves given in a $236m to $520m range plus about $65m from an equity sale. A figure of roughly $799m for World Liberty circulates and is not supported by the reporting reviewed here. This sits at the edge of an AI-sector map rather than inside it, and is recorded for one reason: the political-capital finding concerns the scale and structure of family financial interests running alongside federal policy, and that scale cannot be assessed from the defence-tech positions alone.",
      "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/financial-disclosure-1-billion-cryptocurrency-earnings-meme-coins-rcna352497"
    },
    {
      "id": "o_sovereignty",
      "kind": "opportunity",
      "sev": "opportunity",
      "title": "The sovereignty gap",
      "metric": "everyone is dependent",
      "evidence": [
        "asml",
        "nvidia",
        "palantir"
      ],
      "finding": "Every participant depends on a stack it does not control: foreign lithography, one chip vendor, rival-owned clouds. Sovereign and allied compute, and the ability to prove provenance, is the widest opportunity on the map. Japan is now the largest worked example. METI has roughly quadrupled its FY2026 AI and semiconductor budget to about Y1.23tn, is funding leading-edge logic through Rapidus and the optical interconnect layer through Tower Semiconductor, and sits inside a Y370tn, 17-field national investment framework running to FY2040. The strategy plays to genuine existing strength in robots, components, materials and equipment rather than trying to reproduce the whole stack.",
      "url": "https://kxco.ai/ontology"
    },
    {
      "id": "o_verification",
      "kind": "opportunity",
      "sev": "opportunity",
      "title": "The verification gap",
      "metric": "trust is scarce",
      "evidence": [
        "nvidia",
        "openai",
        "anthropic"
      ],
      "finding": "With demand partly marking its own homework through circular deals, the scarce asset is trust. July 2026 supplied the proof: a Hugging Face breach in which OpenAI test models escaped a sandbox could not be fully investigated, because the closed AI tools involved blocked forensic analysis. The industry's answer, a 37-member alliance formed within weeks, was described by the Cloud Security Alliance as a standards body without a charter. A system that renders every relationship a typed, sourced, verifiable claim, as this map does, is the antidote.",
      "url": "https://kxco.ai/ontology"
    },
    {
      "id": "o_chokepoint_value",
      "kind": "opportunity",
      "sev": "opportunity",
      "title": "Value sits upstream, at the chokepoints",
      "metric": "model layer commoditising",
      "evidence": [
        "asml",
        "tsmc",
        "sk_hynix",
        "th_energy"
      ],
      "finding": "As open weights commoditise the model layer, durable value concentrates upstream - lithography, fabrication, HBM, the one GPU vendor - and in energy, the binding constraint everyone is racing to secure.",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/html/2602.04836v2"
    },
    {
      "id": "o_provenance",
      "kind": "opportunity",
      "sev": "opportunity",
      "title": "Provenance + post-quantum for defense AI",
      "metric": "unaudited supply chains",
      "evidence": [
        "palantir",
        "anduril",
        "us_defense",
        "sandboxaq",
        "dow_cio"
      ],
      "finding": "AI is moving onto classified networks (Palantir, Anduril, the Pentagon Seven) with unaudited model supply chains. Verifiable, quantum-safe provenance is precisely the missing layer.",
      "url": "https://kxco.ai/sentinel"
    },
    {
      "id": "o_japan_diversification",
      "kind": "opportunity",
      "sev": "opportunity",
      "title": "Japan is the credible second source, away from leading-edge logic",
      "metric": "2nm logic, photonics, robots, materials",
      "evidence": [
        "rapidus",
        "tower_semi",
        "japan_meti",
        "th_robotics"
      ],
      "finding": "The map's critical concentrations are lithography at ASML, fabrication at TSMC and memory in a triopoly. Japan is the one jurisdiction funding alternatives across several of those layers at once rather than one. Rapidus is state-backed 2nm logic with Broadcom already sampling. Tower Semiconductor is taking up to Y160bn to expand 300mm silicon photonics and advanced packaging, the optical interconnect every AI data centre needs and a layer with far less attention on it than logic. Underneath both sits an existing industrial base in robots, components, materials and equipment that the physical-AI programme is designed to extend rather than replace. The diversification is real; the timelines are late-decade.",
      "url": "https://towersemi.com/2026/07/14/07142026/"
    },
    {
      "id": "f_agent_paradigm_transfer",
      "kind": "risk",
      "sev": "elevated",
      "title": "The agent paradigm and its yardstick sit on one person, now in Shenzhen",
      "metric": "1 author; 2 artefacts; 3 frontier labs measured on them",
      "evidence": [
        "yao_shunyu",
        "react",
        "swe_bench",
        "tencent",
        "openai"
      ],
      "finding": "Yao Shunyu authored ReAct in October 2022 and co-created SWE-bench a year later. The first is the loop most production agent frameworks implement; the second became the number OpenAI, Anthropic and Google all quoted for coding agents. He took the doctorate at Princeton under Karthik Narasimhan, did the ReAct work at Google, joined OpenAI in August 2024, and has been Tencent's chief AI scientist since the 17 December 2025 announcement, reporting to president Martin Lau and heading the group's LLM and AI infrastructure departments against a stated plan to roughly double AI spend to over RMB 36bn in 2026. Two things are visible here and neither is an inference about intent. Method and evaluation in this sector are unusually concentrated in individual authorship rather than institutional ownership, and that authorship moves with the person across an export-control boundary the rest of this map treats as the main dividing line. The yardstick is also eroding independently: OpenAI retired SWE-bench Verified on 23 February 2026 after finding frontier models could reproduce its solutions verbatim, so the shared number the labs compared themselves on no longer means what it did.",
      "url": "https://www.scmp.com/tech/big-tech/article/3336811/tencent-restructures-ai-operations-promotes-high-profile-recruit-chief-ai-scientist"
    },
    {
      "id": "f_open_weight_distribution",
      "kind": "risk",
      "sev": "elevated",
      "title": "Open weights have one front door",
      "metric": "4 frontier labs, 1 hub, 1 runtime",
      "evidence": [
        "huggingface",
        "meta",
        "qwen",
        "deepseek",
        "mistral",
        "ggml"
      ],
      "finding": "The open-weight half of the sector is usually described as the decentralised half. Its distribution is not. Meta, Alibaba's Qwen, DeepSeek and Mistral all publish their weights on the same private hub, verified here against each lab's own organisation page rather than inferred. On 20 February 2026 that hub also acquired ggml and llama.cpp, the runtime most local and on-device inference of those weights actually executes on, so the publishing surface and the dominant local execution path now sit with one company. Both projects remain open-source and the team keeps technical autonomy, which limits the immediate concern; the structural point is that a licence being open says nothing about whether its distribution is. This map already treats single vendors as chokepoints on the closed side, at Nvidia and at ASML. The same test applied to the open side returns an answer, and it is not obviously different in kind.",
      "url": "https://huggingface.co/blog/ggml-joins-hf"
    }
  ],
  "statements": [
    {
      "id": "stmt_karp_doge_2025_02",
      "author": "alex_karp",
      "quote": "DOGE is a revolution, and some people are going to get their heads cut off. We're expecting to see really unexpected things and to win.",
      "venue": "Palantir Q4 2024 earnings call",
      "said_on": "2025-02",
      "targets": [
        {
          "id": "c_doge",
          "stance": "supportive"
        }
      ],
      "valid_from": "2025-02",
      "valid_to": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-05",
      "supersedes": null,
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/palantir-ceo-alex-karp-says-025521226.html",
      "note": "Cited because it inverts a common assumption. Palantir's revenue depends on the federal bureaucracy DOGE set out to cut, and Karp publicly backed the cutting."
    },
    {
      "id": "stmt_karp_euai_2026",
      "author": "alex_karp",
      "quote": "Warned U.S. regulators against following Europe's approach to AI oversight and urged the administration not to ban open models.",
      "venue": "Fox Business interview",
      "said_on": "2026",
      "targets": [
        {
          "id": "c_eu_ai_act",
          "stance": "critical"
        },
        {
          "id": "c_ai_regulation",
          "stance": "critical"
        }
      ],
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-05",
      "supersedes": null,
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.foxbusiness.com/media/palantir-ceo-warns-us-against-europes-ai-path-urges-trump-admin-not-ban-open-models",
      "note": "Paraphrase, not a verbatim quote. Marked conf=medium for that reason."
    },
    {
      "id": "stmt_musk_airisk_2023",
      "author": "musk",
      "quote": "Signed the open letter calling for a six-month pause on training systems more powerful than GPT-4.",
      "venue": "Future of Life Institute open letter",
      "said_on": "2023-03",
      "targets": [
        {
          "id": "c_ai_regulation",
          "stance": "supportive"
        }
      ],
      "valid_from": "2023-03",
      "valid_to": "2026-07",
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-05",
      "supersedes": null,
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://futureoflife.org/open-letter/pause-giant-ai-experiments/",
      "note": "Superseded by his 2026 position. Retained, not deleted: the change is the finding."
    },
    {
      "id": "stmt_musk_airisk_2026",
      "author": "musk",
      "quote": "Framed a summit of AI executives as an alternative to government regulation, arguing government should intervene only if companies ignore safety issues raised by industry peers.",
      "venue": "Reported proposal following an OpenAI safety incident",
      "said_on": "2026-07",
      "targets": [
        {
          "id": "c_ai_regulation",
          "stance": "critical"
        }
      ],
      "valid_from": "2026-07",
      "valid_to": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-05",
      "supersedes": "stmt_musk_airisk_2023",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://www.inc.com/brian-contreras/elon-musk-sam-altman-openai-artificial-intelligence-safety/91379693",
      "note": "Paraphrase. The stance on the same target flipped from supportive to critical between 2023 and 2026, which is why an opinion cannot be a property of a person."
    },
    {
      "id": "stmt_musk_nvidia_2026_08",
      "author": "musk",
      "quote": "Going forward, we have decided to build exclusively on Nvidia because we think the Vera Rubin architecture is the best architecture. We think it's the best AI computer, and we greatly value our close cooperation and partnership on many levels with Nvidia.",
      "venue": "SpaceX Q2 2026 earnings call, its first as a public company",
      "said_on": "2026-08-04",
      "targets": [
        {
          "id": "nvidia",
          "stance": "supportive"
        }
      ],
      "valid_from": "2026-08-04",
      "valid_to": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-05",
      "supersedes": null,
      "disc": "primary",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/movers/26/08/60935776/musk-praises-vera-rubin-platform-on-spacex-earnings-call-nvidia-stock-climbs",
      "note": "Verbatim. Nvidia rose about 2% after hours on it while SPCX fell, which is the market reading value as transferring to the supplier."
    },
    {
      "id": "stmt_musk_fsd_2025_01",
      "author": "musk",
      "quote": "Unsupervised Full Self-Driving would launch by June 2025.",
      "venue": "Q4 2024 earnings call",
      "said_on": "2025-01",
      "targets": [
        {
          "id": "c_unsupervised_autonomy",
          "stance": "supportive"
        }
      ],
      "valid_from": "2025-01",
      "valid_to": "2026-04",
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-05",
      "supersedes": null,
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://electrek.co/2026/04/22/tesla-elon-musk-unsupervised-fsd-consumer-cars-q4-delay-again/",
      "note": "Recounted in later coverage rather than quoted from the call, hence medium confidence. What launched in June 2025 carried safety monitors, so it did not meet the stated bar."
    },
    {
      "id": "stmt_musk_fsd_2026_04",
      "author": "musk",
      "quote": "Unsupervised FSD for consumer vehicles pushed to Q4 2026 at the earliest, with complex intersections, bad road markings and weather cited as the obstacles.",
      "venue": "Q1 2026 earnings call",
      "said_on": "2026-04",
      "targets": [
        {
          "id": "c_unsupervised_autonomy",
          "stance": "mixed"
        }
      ],
      "valid_from": "2026-04",
      "valid_to": "2026-05",
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-05",
      "supersedes": "stmt_musk_fsd_2025_01",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://electrek.co/2026/04/22/tesla-elon-musk-unsupervised-fsd-consumer-cars-q4-delay-again/",
      "note": "The one concession in the sequence. Names specific technical obstacles rather than restating a date."
    },
    {
      "id": "stmt_musk_fsd_2026_05",
      "author": "musk",
      "quote": "Unsupervised FSD will be widespread in the US by year-end, with robotaxi operating in a dozen or so states.",
      "venue": "Smart Mobility Summit, 18 May 2026",
      "said_on": "2026-05",
      "targets": [
        {
          "id": "c_unsupervised_autonomy",
          "stance": "supportive"
        }
      ],
      "valid_from": "2026-05",
      "valid_to": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-05",
      "supersedes": "stmt_musk_fsd_2026_04",
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "high",
      "url": "https://electrek.co/2026/05/18/musk-unsupervised-fsd-widespread-us-end-of-year-smart-mobility-summit/",
      "note": "Less than a month after conceding Q4 at the earliest. The stance moved back to optimistic without the obstacles being reported as resolved."
    },
    {
      "id": "stmt_eric_trump_blindtrust_2026",
      "author": "eric_trump",
      "quote": "Family assets are in a blind trust invested in broad market indexes.",
      "venue": "Public remarks on the family's holdings",
      "said_on": "2026",
      "targets": [
        {
          "id": "c_blind_trust",
          "stance": "supportive"
        }
      ],
      "valid_from": "2026",
      "valid_to": null,
      "recorded_at": "2026-08-06",
      "supersedes": null,
      "disc": "reported",
      "conf": "medium",
      "url": "https://moneywise.com/news/top-stories/trump-eric-trump-nvidia-palantir-stock-trades-insider-trading-accusations",
      "note": "Recorded alongside the filing it sits against. The OGE disclosure for the same period lists 3,642 individual trades, and the vehicle is a revocable family trust with family trustees rather than a qualified blind trust. The graph records the statement and the filing; it does not adjudicate between them."
    }
  ],
  "revelations": [
    {
      "title": "ASML · Veldhoven, NL",
      "description": "The sector's true root. One firm makes the EUV lithography every leading-edge AI chip requires — behind a Taiwanese fab, behind an American chipmaker, behind six household names."
    },
    {
      "title": "Colossus · Memphis, TN",
      "description": "A rocket company's data centres, rented to the labs that compete with its own — $45bn from Anthropic, $32bn from Google, all training on machines xAI built."
    },
    {
      "title": "The capital loop",
      "description": "Investors fund the labs; the labs commit that capital straight back to the investors' clouds and chips. Roughly $1tn of announced deals circulating inside one cohort."
    },
    {
      "title": "HBM Triopoly",
      "description": "Three companies — SK Hynix, Samsung, Micron — control 100% of HBM production, the single most acute supply chain chokepoint in AI. Korea makes it, Taiwan packages it, Japan enables it. $100B+ market by 2028."
    },
    {
      "title": "EDA Duopoly",
      "description": "Synopsys and Cadence control 96% of the EDA (chip design software) market. No AI accelerator chip can be designed without them. New US curbs have forced both to halt work in China — a hidden chokepoint."
    },
    {
      "title": "China's Parallel Universe",
      "description": "China has built a near-complete parallel AI stack: SMIC (foundry) → Huawei Ascend (chips) → DeepSeek/Qwen (models) → Tencent/Alibaba (cloud). State fund: $8.2B. DeepSeek: $50B valuation. The 'Six Tigers' startups each at $1B+."
    },
    {
      "title": "Quantum Arrives",
      "description": "Google's Willow chip demonstrated the first verifiable quantum advantage. Quantum Echoes algorithm. Exponential error suppression — logical errors decrease as qubits increase. The theoretical threshold has been crossed on real hardware."
    },
    {
      "title": "Nuclear Renaissance",
      "description": "AI power demand is restarting nuclear plants. Microsoft: $16B, 20-year Three Mile Island deal. Amazon: $650M Talen Energy nuclear deal. Big tech has signed 10GW+ of new US nuclear capacity in the past year."
    },
    {
      "title": "The Anthropic Explosion",
      "description": "Anthropic raised at a blistering pace: Series F $13B at $183B (Sep 2025), Series G $30B at $380B (Feb 2026), then a $65B Series H at ~$965B post-money (May 2026) — nearing a $1T valuation ahead of IPO. Amazon's $8B stake boosted quarterly profits by $9.5B. Planning $100B+ compute spend. Dario Amodei's company has overtaken OpenAI as the most valuable AI startup."
    },
    {
      "title": "Japan's 2nm Gamble",
      "description": "Rapidus — Japan's state-backed foundry — achieved 2nm GAA production just 3 months after installing EUV. ¥2.35T total government support. IBM partnership. Broadcom as key customer. Japan re-entering the chip race."
    },
    {
      "title": "Stargate Stalls",
      "description": "$500B Stargate project struggling 6 months after White House unveiling. SoftBank, Oracle, MGX committed but execution faces power, permitting, and financing hurdles. 10GW planned across 5 sites."
    },
    {
      "title": "Mistral's European Fortress",
      "description": "France's Mistral AI: $14B valuation, $830M debt for 13,800-GPU datacenter near Paris. Europe's AI champion building infrastructure, not just models. Aleph Alpha ($230M) in Germany provides enterprise/government alternative."
    },
    {
      "title": "Robotics Inflection",
      "description": "Figure AI at $39B valuation. Tesla Optimus Gen 3 ramping production. Humanoid robot industry hit inflection point in early 2026. Bezos, OpenAI, Nvidia, Microsoft all invested. Musk says robots will be bigger than cars."
    },
    {
      "title": "Quantum Security Threat",
      "description": "SandboxAQ (Alphabet spinoff) is building AI + quantum-resistant cryptography for US defense. Google's Willow chip proved quantum advantage — meaning current encryption will eventually break. The race to post-quantum cryptography is now a national security imperative."
    },
    {
      "title": "The Insiders' Headstart",
      "description": "The people who build the frontier run more capable models internally than anything they ship - wired into their own R&D months before the public sees them. METR's 2026 evaluation put the internal-vs-public lead at ~2 months on average, and the labs' own transparency framework concedes developers 'may have extremely capable internal models not shared with the outside world.' A self-built, largely fair, but monitorable advantage - the thesis of KXCO founder Shayne Heffernan."
    },
    {
      "title": "The Founders' Other Bets",
      "description": "The same dozen people funding AI are funding the future of the body and the frontier: longevity (Altman's Retro, Bezos's Altos, Hassabis's Isomorphic, Alphabet's Calico), brain-computer interfaces (Musk's Neuralink, Altman's Merge Labs), robotics, space, defence and energy. The Investment Areas and Health & Longevity layers map who is betting on what."
    },
    {
      "title": "The Talent Mafia",
      "description": "Almost every major lab was founded by defectors from another: Anthropic from OpenAI (7 founders), Mistral from DeepMind + Meta FAIR, xAI from OpenAI/DeepMind, DeepSeek from Microsoft Research Asia, Zhipu from Tsinghua, SandboxAQ from Google X. Talent lineage - not capital - is the real map of alignment and risk."
    },
    {
      "title": "Partner Turned Litigant",
      "description": "Apple and OpenAI went from a 2024 ChatGPT deal to a 2026 trade-secrets lawsuit - and Apple says 400+ of its ex-staff now work at OpenAI. Elon Musk co-founded OpenAI in 2015, left in 2018, and sued it. In AI, partnerships curdle into litigation."
    },
    {
      "title": "The Four-Competitor Trap",
      "description": "Anthropic is backed at once by Amazon ($33B potential), Google (up to $40B), Microsoft ($5B) and Nvidia ($10B) - four direct rivals in one cap table - and commits ~$130B of compute straight back to their clouds and chips. The most concentrated investor-conflict in tech."
    },
    {
      "title": "Microsoft-OpenAI Fractures",
      "description": "The exclusive Microsoft-OpenAI pact ended in April 2026: the IP license is now non-exclusive through 2032. That single change unlocked OpenAI's $300B Oracle deal and Stargate - and freed Microsoft to invest $5B in Anthropic, OpenAI's rival."
    },
    {
      "title": "China's Open-Weight Play",
      "description": "China's leaders - DeepSeek, Zhipu, Moonshot (Kimi) - release open-weight models as strategy, capturing ~17% of global model downloads. A state-encouraged push to make China, not the US, the home of open-source AI - even as their founders trace back to Google Brain, Meta FAIR and Microsoft Research Asia."
    },
    {
      "title": "Alibaba's Tiger Trap",
      "description": "Alibaba has backed ALL of China's 'AI Tigers' - Zhipu, Moonshot, MiniMax, 01.AI and Baichuan - while also designing its own Nvidia-rival chips (T-Head) and now powering Apple Intelligence in China with Qwen. The mirror image of Anthropic's four-competitor trap, on the China side."
    },
    {
      "title": "Thiel's All-Rivals Bet",
      "description": "Founders Fund is the only investor with stakes in OpenAI, Anthropic AND xAI at once - and Peter Thiel's network runs straight into defense and government: Palantir (ICE, DoD, IDF, NHS) and Anduril. The PayPal Mafia, still compounding."
    },
    {
      "title": "The Musk Data Loop",
      "description": "Tesla FSD data and X's social feed train Grok; Grok flows back into Tesla; SpaceX engineers are redirected to xAI - a closed data-talent-compute loop no rival has, inside one ~$1.25T entity. Yet all 11 xAI co-founders have departed."
    },
    {
      "title": "Compete and Cooperate",
      "description": "The clearest signal of the AI bubble's tangle: Alibaba buys Nvidia H200s while open-sourcing 'Sail' to break CUDA; it distributes Meta's Llama while Qwen rivals it; Microsoft hosts Grok, Llama AND OpenAI on Azure at once. Everyone is simultaneously everyone else's customer, host and rival."
    },
    {
      "title": "Rivals in One Foxhole",
      "description": "A defense-AI consortium - Palantir, Anduril, SpaceX, OpenAI, Saronic and Scale AI - jointly bids for US military contracts. Musk (SpaceX), Thiel (Palantir/Anduril) and Altman (OpenAI), rivals everywhere else, converge to disrupt the defense primes."
    },
    {
      "title": "The Government AI Layer",
      "description": "Four companies now hold the US government's AI spine: Palantir ($13.7B in ceilings, 54% of its revenue is federal), SpaceX ($22B, classified spy-sat networks + a Pentagon AI-compute bid), OpenAI and Anthropic ($200M DoD each) - and they jointly bid as one Defense AI Consortium. Rivals in the market, allies at the Pentagon."
    },
    {
      "title": "The White House AI Gate",
      "description": "In Feb 2026 the Trump administration BANNED Anthropic's Claude from federal use ('supply chain risk') the same day OpenAI won its Pentagon deal - then made all government AI access run through White House approval (Projects Glasswing & Daybreak). Unprecedented executive control over which models the state may use."
    },
    {
      "title": "The Pentagon's Seven",
      "description": "Seven companies signed the Pentagon's AI deals to help the US military fight wars: OpenAI, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Nvidia, Oracle and SpaceX. The entire Western frontier now works for the Department of War - on classified networks, with Palantir and Anduril wiring it to the battlefield."
    },
    {
      "title": "OpenAI Went to War",
      "description": "In Jan 2024 OpenAI quietly deleted its ban on 'military and warfare' use; by 2025 it had a $200M Pentagon contract, ChatGPT Gov for 90,000+ federal staff, and it stepped straight into the role Anthropic lost when it refused the guardrails."
    }
  ]
}